Call It A Comeback
Jim Henly continues his bang up job deconstructing the nonsense surrounding the sniper investigation. Quote of the post:
Here is a very basic principle of international terrorism: You can not commit a suicide bombing on your way to another appointment. That’s in the handbook.
Thank you, thank you very much….
In making my guesses for the election, let me make it clear–I don’t see a trend either way. What I do see are specific elections that tend to be turning towards Democrats. I can well be wrong on these, but from reading the background on them and looking at the poll numbers, it looks like Democrats will do better in Senate and Governor’s races this year. I don’t sense a clear trend towards a specific party though. The Governors are a combination of anti-incumbency (w/more Republicans) and strong candidates. The Senate is simply a factor of specific races. Given the Democrats haven’t tried to nationalize this race, it only makes sense that individual factors will determine the outcome. It just so happens those individual factors are probably helping Democrats.
I’m still not clear why the headline reads Is Zogby a Fraud?. However, he makes an argument closer to the evidence.
The problem is he isn’t grasping how this poll is reported. He mentions the black turnout numbers and says they are a problem because they assume 100% turnout by African-Americans. It does no such thing actually. It assumes a turnout of 12% of the voting population based on a likely voter turnout model that is proprietary. The voters included in those numbers have already been determined by Zogby to be likely voters. The only people in the final sample are likely voters as determined by the model so non-voters are already weeded out. If one is saying he got the proportion wrong, that is a legitimate argument, but understanding the samples for what they are is important.
The 95% shouldn’t be surprising and fit with past results and recent history. As I mentioned here while Missouri traditionally has had more African-American support for Republicans, the Ronnie White case radicalized the population.
Strangely, Jim Talent is probably the most open to African-American concerns of Missouri GOPers. However, Bond and Ashcroft have the advantage of being former Governors and used patronage to gather up some support as individuals. Talent never had that position and thus is not likely to get the same numbers of support. I think Talent could have made some inroads, but instead of running a bold campaign in the black wards and towns, he was timid and has allowed the RNC to push a suppression tactic instead. Patrick’s description of the small differences needed to even change the calculus a little bit is very good. Given a sample of only 95 people, the MoE is quite high too. But there is little evidence that Talent will break 10% of the black vote. More importanly, the higher the black turnout, the lower Talent’s percentage will be. This is part of the story Judis didn’t mention. There aren’t many black Republicans, but those few vote. Where the turnout varies is in leaners who are overwhelmingly Democratic and that is why knock and drag is so vital to Democratic prospects.
Ultimately, it all boils down to the GOTV tomorrow.
UPDATE: Let me add that I agree at least two of the results are most likely skewed. Looking for where the problems are is a perfectly legitimate exercise. I’ll largely be leaving that alone until Wednesday when we have more data.
Write ‘Hynes not Hines’ 100 times on the chalkboard.
Thanks to the Bloviator for pointing out my mistake. Let me put in a plug for his site–he does an incredible job covering public health issues. Take a look.
I should know better, but after getting smug that John Sharp was doing well in Texas, I found this nugget on my favorite wingnut religious site. He attended a huge service that John Hagee gave at Cornerstone Church in San Antonio.
Cornerstone pastor John Hagee thanked the candidates for withstanding the rigors of running for public office, and he preached against the separation of church and state, welfare, the American Civil Liberties Union, satanism, abortion and gay rights in a sermon titled “In God We Trust.”
Continue down the page and see the analysis of the Simon-Davis race. Apparenlty only True Christians TM count. Funny enough, but I was pretty sure Simon and Davis were both Satan…
Going again to the well at Charisma News with a great article talking about the great work of a sidewalk preacher who called sorority members promiscuous. I guess that whole Mary Magdelan thing doesn’t apply even if such a claim was accurate? Provoking people seems to be code for being a huge gaping asshole. I imagine that isn’t the best strategy at spreading the Good Word, but maybe I’m missing something.
And for William Burton if he is out there, another mention of everyone’s favorite evangelist/gay porn star Dutch Sheets.
Richard Rothstein’s column on Texas school funding should be a must read for the two twit running in Illinois. Ther ain’t no such thing as a free lunch and one has to figure out how to pay for schools. In a related note Capitol Fax has a good breakdown on the budget numbers.
House: 211-223-1 Rep
Senate: 54-45-1 Dem
Governors: 31-19 Dem
The Zogby poll has been drawing some attention for the Illinois Governor’s race. The poll reports a dead heat. Why I doubt the poll’s result given how out of line it is with other polls and no clear sign of a movement in the campaign. J-Ry has been animated recently, but not much has changed the dynamic. Ryan’s numbers may be correct, but it is unlikely Blagojevich has lost this much. Rich Miller’s column from last week predicted a collapse, but I noted some reasons why this is nothing like 1998.
Additionally, John Kass argues betrayal is going to lead to a lot of Republicans staying home. I agree with Kass, but I think he misses the divisions in the ICFST. Social conservatives are making a concerted effort to attack the party moderates like those on the ballot this year (save Birkett). Republicans in Illinois aren’t abandoning their party, their party is abandoning them. On one end, Kass is correct. Power for too long has led to a lot of problems and many rank in file have been abandoned by moving away from low taxes and shrinking government. In political terms, this election is the Perfect Storm for the ICFST. First, business left because of the sense the Rs are going to lose. Next, the social conservatives went into a snit when home schooling and abortion weren’t the focus of the party’s candidate. Third, George Ryan infurated the base with his moves to raise taxes and protect corruption.
The only warning point is that Zogby seems to have similar numbers to others in the AG race. Why this is in line, but the Gov race is an interesting question and perhaps the best evidence I may be wrong.
Of the many reasons Zogby probably has the poll wrong, traditional models of likely voters aren’t going to apply Tuesday. And that is too bad. The social conservatives are going to try and hijack the party after this election, and with business gone and the moderate rank and file feeling abandoned, there isn’t going to be any organized resistance. The first effect will be a primary fight against Fitzgerald in two years. When Fitzgerald emerges scarred from that fight, the Democrats will have some fine candidates to take him out. Hynes, Obama, Chico, and the millionaire all provide real alternatives–real alternatives that business will get behind if there are any more delays in the expansion of O’Hare.
It is a sad day when a party loses its moderates. But it is a good day to be an Illinois Democrat.
Wednesday morning–Blago goes to Governor-Elect Blowdry.
Cornryn up 6 with 10% undecided. Additionally, one of the more overlooked races in Texas this year is the Lt. Governor. The Democrat Sharp is up 4 points. Who the hell cares about the Lt. Governor? In Texas, the Lt. Governor is more powerful than the Governor. Just another quirky aspect of the Lone Star State. Sanchez may not pull out his race, but he is going to deliver the Lt. Gov and maybe Senator with his GOTV operation.
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