Post-Dispatch shows a 42 point spread.
Obama 67%
Keyes 25%
Undecided 8%
The Research 2000 Illinois Poll was conducted from October 21 through October 23, 2004. A total of 800 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 3.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the ?true? figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
The only good news for Alan is that he has 62% of Republican voters in the poll which is the first time I’ve seen him above 50% with his own party. And it shows him ahead in the Collar Counties, though I’m not buying that quite yet.
I realize Obama has this locked up, but should he be spending more time in Illinois and doing more in-state campaigning anyway? Is it hurting him not to be seen “out and about”? Is there any advantage to piling on to try to get to 76% vs. 67%?
sPh
Seems like his work stumping for other Dems is more useful at this junction. Does it matter if he utterly blows Alan out of the water? I don’t think so, maybe if he only loses by 40%, Alan will hang around and run for a few more offices in IL and/or getting involved in the coming ILGOP civil war.
I doubt it–piling on is pretty much up to Alan at this point–he drives his own bad numbers. You can’t do much to an opponent who is his own worst enemy. Honestly, Barack’s profile is so high, that the out of state trips are irrelevant because in any Illinois media market, Barack sucks up the media attention leaving him the main story. He gets so much free media that it makes up for the day or two he’s out of state.
It’ll help him in the Senate as well.
Have to agree with Arch on this one. Why spend the time and capitol in Illinois if you don’t need to. Why not build up a lot of chits’ to call in down the road.
OneMan
I think that the undecided voters are GOPers who are deciding between 1) voting for Keyes, 2) skipping that race or 3) protest voting.
AM’s probably right here. That and notorious hand wringers who are really just uninformed and like to pretend they are torn over great issues of importance.
How fantastic would it be if the Republican and Undecideds were to protest vote Keyes in favor of Kohn? G-Rod’s approvals seem to be getting better and God knows he is sitting on an absolute mountain of cash but what would be better than Libratarian Party parity in state races? Brings a smile to my face 🙂
I wonder what would happen to those poll numbers if you tossed in Jack Ryan’s name?
Ryan would be down by 20? That’s what happened last time in August.