Hotline has the full results.
Blagojevich 52%
Oberweis 33%
Blagojevich 57%
Gidwitz 22%
Gidwitz even loses in the collar counties while Oberweis gets Blagojevich over 50%.
What’s great about these numbers is that Oberweis has 28% approval and 35% approval. For someone without a strong identity amongst the general public, more dislike him than like him. That’s tough to pull off.
The Gidwitz/Rauschenberger plan continues to never need to unravel because it never raveled with Gidwitz have a 9% approval and 8% disapproval. IOW, Whodwhitz.
I understand those who just won’t support Topinka because they disagree/dislike her, but it’s painfully obvious she’s the only one with shot at beating Blagojevich short of him being indicted.
UPDATE: There are more numbers in the Hotline, but I won’t post all of them out of respect for their subscribers. Just in case anyone is curious why I only listed what I did.
What are you talking about? Oberweis is know by at least 63% and he gets 33% against Blago! The poll is weighted to democrats since this is a blue state. JBT is known by a vast majority of voters 37% still don’t know Oberweis and he is 19 points behind someone who is a sitting Governor. Judy is slipping and Oberweis is gaining. As I remember there are two sets, voters and likely voters which are these? Gidwitz has 9% approval and gets 22% Hairdoo is dead meat!!!!!!!!!
Several issues here
First, the distribution of Democrats, Republicans and Independents is pretty close to other recent polls in Illinois. There is no reason to think that is off.
Second, for a guy who is running his third statewide race, Oberweis has bad numbers—one should never have higher disapproval than approval, especially just as a candidate,
Third, even though the Governor has high disapproval numbers, in a match-up with Oberweis, he goes over 50% percent. Undecided go down in an Oberweis match-up than with a Topinka Match-up.
Those are toxic numbers for a candidate.
Read into the numbers and it is not what you think Half of those polled were from Cook and Chicago Why did central Illinois get more voters than the collar counties? 214-151. This is heavly weighted to Democrats, not actual vote totals in the last gov election. As I said before JBT is losing and Oberweis is gaining. Brady must not have shown up since they asked about Gidwitz. What has got to kill Brady is the poll is weighted more to central Illinois and that is his backyard and still ZIP.
No, it isn’t heavily weighted towards Democrats:
PARTY ID:
Democrats 321 (40%)
Republicans 255 (32%)
Independents 224 (28%)
That’s lower for Dems and higher for Republicans than many recent polls on Party ID
From the P-D: Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The Cook proportion of the vote in the survey is off by about 3 % than of the Cook proportion of the vote in 2004 according to the Illinois State Board of Elections.
I don’t know what you are talking about with Brady since I don’t know of anyone who has seen any numbers from this poll concerning him–do you know where it might be?
Do you think they forgot Brady or did he just not show up in the polls? Maybe his numbers were as low as Martins so they left him off?
The collars are much higher Oberweis territory the central part of the state is Bradys. Thats like polling in the south democrats more than cook for Blago
survey usa the wekly survey that Capitolfax runs has Blago 42+ and 53- in his fav unfav. Arch pundit is that TOXIC? That poll has been going on for 6 or 7 months and has held steady. It depends on whos poll you look at
I have no idea why Brady isn’t included–I have no idea why the P-D didn’t include the Oberweis and Gidwitz numbers either though.
And yes, I do think a 53% disapproval is toxic and have been saying so–the thing is that for an unelected politician who hasn’t had to make actual government decisions it’s even worse to have higher unfavorables than favorables. The guys isn’t a new candidate–like say Brady so he doesn’t get to define himself with the electorate.
Blagojevich’s best shot right now is that to many voters he might not be as bad as the alternative–namely an Oberweis general election candidacy.