Pretty bad. At some level the general public might take it as a sign of independence, but let’s face it–Democrats are looking for an excuse to run against the guy and this provides that opening. As IlPundit points out, the comments are more than just a spat, Mell accuses the guy of corruption and now the Illinois press has even more reason to track down every donor with an appointment or such. And let’s face it, The Blagorgeous isn’t the press’s favorite guy.
And the coalition is hurt. In a general election the guy might do okay, but his position in the City is very bad. Mell was his biggest block of support and now that appears to be gone. The Mayor has little love for the guy and the Speaker hates him.
A primary challenge can unite downstate labor Dems, the Mayor and the Southside and make a good run at the guy. The problem is who can do it. Lisa Madigan is having a kid and such a run is nearly impossible. Hynes might be able to do it, but after his lackluster effort in the US Senate Primary, he’s not viewed as strong. He’ll be fine long term, but he probably needs to think more about how to present himself to the public. Dick Devine is a possibility and has a supporter in Jerry Costello as well as the Mayor. He’s the anti-G-Rod, though his family was generally close to Blagojevich for G-Rod’s first run for Governor. Or—convince Paul to come back.
Beating an incumbent Governor isn’t impossible, but it is tough. McCaskill did it in Missouri, but even then, Holden had horrible numbers. G-Rods seem to stay around 50% or better in approval and he has a huge warchest.
although keep in mind, as much as mell was behind him, blago still did not win mells ward in the primary – Valas did.
I still dont see anyone challenging him. Madigan, as you said, is having a kid. A friend of mine who works for her told me in no uncertain terms she was not running.
Ain’t gonna happen. The real question is whether or not the Republicans can find a candidate.
Interesting. The IL GOP is divided by ideology– the true believing conservatives vs. the moderate establishment. The IL Dems are divided by personality — Blagojevich vs. pretty much the entire party. Think of it. There are no real hot issues that divide the Dems, (only 2 of the Northwest Side/Southwest Side Catholic Dems voted against the Gay Rights bill. All of them would have voted against 10 years ago.) But almost every Dem outside of the Gov’s immediate circle dislikes Blago, not because he’s too conservative or too liberal — but because he’s a self-promoting, back-stabbing jerk.
Having said that, personality alone won’t beat the Gov in a primary –so I think he’s safe, for now.
Well, the GOP has a real candidate in LaHood, now, it appears. But expect the Speaker, the Mayor and everyone else to kiss and make up with Blago before the election.
The Speaker needs Blago in office for four more years to keep the seat warm.
One possible primary opponent – although he certainly appears to have his sights on the Mayors Office – is Jesse Jackson Jr.
He certainly could do alot more about the peotone airport situation from Springfield than from DC.
I’m still gunning for Dan Hynes. The fact that he sent me a Christmas card makes me wonder if he’s contemplating another race. He told me in Springfield at the State Fair that he is thinking about it.
Poshard would clobber Roddy B.
If Hynes wants a future in politics I think he’s got to jump into this race.
I think I might actually vote for hynes for gov. Certainly against blago. That would be one strange race in my neck of the woods – I live in the 47th Ward (Hynes’ Ward) right next door to the 33 (Mell and Blago’s Ward) at this point who would mell support? Strange. There is also some (minor) bad blood between mell and schulter (my alderman) due to Mell coming into the 47th passing out flyers that say “47th ward democrats support Hull” during the senate campagin – schulter was a hynes supporter.