2006

Mixed Feelings

I’m thrilled for David Loebsack. As those who read my blog know, David was my college advisor and a friend. I couldn’t be happier for him and prouder of what he has achieved.

But with that race is a sense of sadness as well. Jim Leach is a great guy. He is the guy who stopped Bill Clinton’s stupid banking reform legislation and helped avoid a future economic meltdown. He was smarter than I about the War in Iraq and he’s always practiced what he preached when it came to campaign finance not accepting PAC contributions.

He was one of the most vocal opponents of Newt Gingrich and the effort to reshape Congress and burn down the traditions that kept it functioning and restrained corruption. He talked about serious issues like nuclear non-proliferation and genocide even when it did not matter to his District.

He was everything I wanted in a Congressman. Thoughtful, independent, and committed.

But I couldn’t afford him anymore. In fact, David and I talked about this when he was thinking of running and David made it a centerpiece of his campaign.

Voting for Denny Hastert as Speaker of the House meant that the institution would continue to be debased by those who had no view of the historical importance of the institution and its rules and norms.

Voting for Denny Hastert meant that one was endorsing of the most ambitious marriages of government and business ever seen in the United States. A marriage of corruption that sought to tie the goals of Congress and Business into one instead of Congress and the people.

Voting for Denny Hastert meant that instead of tackling hard problems as Jim Leach always wanted to do, hard problems were covered up and THE GAY was used to scare the voters instead of fixing problems.

Voting for Denny Hastert allowed the institution to undergo a long, slow process of creeping illegitimacy.

Leach was right in 1992 when he was concerned about Democratic leadership ignoring the rules of the House. He was also right that the increasing influence of the religious right was a danger to his party. But when both problems appeared in one party he stayed. He fought against Gingrich and then gave up. At that point, decent or not, he was not the useful Jim Leach many admired. He was simply another Republican vote.

That simply could not continue and I will miss Jim Leach’s voice, but that voice is useless if the first aye is to betray everything he stood for.

Next

2008 is a Presidential year and Dick Durbin will be up for reelection. While he has midling approval ratings, he should win that race relatively easily. The targets then are the House seats that have reasonable chance to be flipped.

IL-6 Roskam will be a Freshman, but will also have a ton of money from groups like the Club for Growth

IL-10 Beg Dan Seals to run again. He’ll win in a Presidential election year.

IL-11 Pavich showed some life, but whether he’d want to try again or not, there would need to be some changes to how the campaign was run (obvious when you lose). Part of the problem is the District is pretty unmanageable given the geography and without State Party support that race is going to be hard to put together.

IL-14 Open seat then if not sooner. It’s a 55-45 District for Republicans in Presidential years. That certainly means it is a potential target–IL-8 is slightly more Republican. It’s a tough race for two reasons. First, there is relatively little Democratic infrastructure in the District (not none, but a not a lot) and it’s ultimately conservative District. Dems can hope Lauzen runs and wins the primary, but that’s hope and not a plan.

IL-17 Hold for Hare who did a good job. The danger is that the GOP might actually find a good candidate. So far there is no evidence of that being a danger.

Some will point to other Districts, but there is little evidence they will be competitive, especially in a Presidential election when the base turns out pretty strongly. IL-15 showed a bit of life with Gill’s run, but that District is probably worse in terms of geography than even IL-11.

No Comment Needed

From Illinois Review:

That moment never came and now his resignation has been announced. Call it an early holiday gift to the enemies of the United States both foreign and domestic. Few times in American history has such a distinguished public servant been so scurriously villified by critics for doing such an outstanding job with honor and integrity.

Blagojevich beats probes for 2nd term

I assume this is a headline actually written by the reporters and it’s beautiful.

The teaser on-line is even funnier:

They want more. Illinois voters gave Gov. Blagojevich a second term Tuesday, ending a bitter campaign in which he argued that his big-ticket programs such as preschool for kids and expanding health care trumped the federal investigations plaguing his administration.