May 2006

The Topinka Plan

Okay, it’s snarky and such, but let me put it this way, these are three of the most important issues to me:

1) Children’s Health Care
2) Early Childhood Care and Education
3) Education Funding.

I’m not a particular fan of the Governor and I think the financing on this deal is stupid (and many others). However, he has plans in all three areas. I don’t think the education one goes far enough, but it’s a start. His ECC plan is a good idea. And I think All Kids is good though I’m still concerned about the funding.

Right now, Judy is still trying to unite her party and that’s reasonable, but for the general election there is nothing right now on her actual positions in these areas other than vaguely being against All Kids and calling the Governor’s plan a sham.

I think the financing is certainly problematic, but the programmatic end of his plan is a good start. I’m all for a good pile on of the Governor at times, but at some point it has to be pointed out that he’s had some really strong ideas–even with poor funding schemes. Judy wants to be fiscally responsible and it’s good she didn’t sign the no tax increase pledge, but that doesn’t tell anyone how she’ll fix the state’s financial problems and maintain important programs or offer reasonable alternatives in the mean time.

Duckworth Polling

Sweet covered the essentials today in her column.

It’s a Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal poll:

The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 likely voters in the Sixth Congressional District of Illinois. Interviews were conducted May 9-11, 2006. The sampling error for this survey is
plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Hard numbers:
Roskam: 35%
Duckworth 34%

Leaners
Roskam 40%
Duckworth 40%
Other parts of the memo:

Despite the Republican nature of the district (49% Republican, 36% Democrat), the political environment presents an opportunity for Duckworth. Specifically:

? Just 27% think things in this country are going in the right direction while 58% think things are on the wrong track.

? Only 34% think President Bush is doing an excellent or good job as President while 65% disapprove of Bush?s job performance. More four in ten (42%) rate his performance as poor.

? More have an unfavorable opinion of President Bush (48%) than have a favorable impression of him (43%).

65% disapproval of George Bush in the 6th CD. Heh. 48% don’t even like Bush. Statewide, Survey USA has Bush at 67% Disapproval and 73% disapproval in Suburban Cook. with the collar counties the only place he’s even close to breaking even with 47% disapproval (DuPage is collar under Survey USA and many polls).

Considering Roskam is also an incumbent representing a part of the area this is a hard result.

Roskam wants to localize the race, hence discussing a potential lease deal on the tollways, but the problem is this is a national race with a national candidate who is in many ways the face of the war. Add to that, Roskam is generally more conservative than Bush and it’s pretty difficult to figure out how the race becomes localized. Adding to his problems, that pesky DeLay fundraiser around the time of DeLay’s indictment, Roskam has to run away from people who have supported him fairly strongly to win.

The numbers one really needs to see are the intensity numbers for this year though. All national evidence points toward a Republican base that isn’t terribly motivated and a Democratic base that is fired up. The mitigating factors could be a motivated DuPage County getting out the vote for Birkett, but in the recent Survey USA poll between Topinka and Blagojevich don’t show her above 50% in the collars–given his unpopularity in that area, that’s a real problem for Republicans all around.

New Survey USA Numbers

Blagojevich 43%
Topinka 37%

and a very unhappy electorate:
Other 15%
Undecided 4%

Weirdest number with women: G-Rod 47%, Topinka 30%

I’d say both have problems with their respective bases from the cross tabs, but Judy’s is more pronounced. Actually G-Rod’s would be bad news for him if her problems weren’t greater (sensing a theme here?)

Amongst Republicans 18% are supporting other, and 10% G-Rod. Amongst Dems it’s 9% Other and 15% Topinka. 23% of conservatives are supporting other. Liberal numbers are lower, but still high.

African-Americans support G-Rod with 84% (remember Meeks was still probably in when this was done) with 6% to Topinka and 6% to other. It’s not the Meeks challenge drawing away African-Americans. It’s the social conservatives angry at Judy and then Rod’s problems with many Dems driving the relatively high crossover numbers.

It’s only May so these people may migrate to some degre.

Where the Trib Goes Off the Rails

Those poor relatively well off suburban districts are getting screwed under the plan by the mighty downstate districts.

My ass. Places like Unit 5 might qualify under this complaint, but not the vast majority of Districts downstate.

ut Blagojevich has a political price to pay as well: At first blush, this plan does nothing to address fast-rising property taxes that enrage many voters. And it appears that relatively few of its benefits would go to the suburban school districts that state funding already short-changes. Blagojevich may have just torpedoed the suburban support he’ll need against Topinka.

If Illinois schools receive more funding, some of it should go to teaching the rudiments of economics. That’s where this plan really falls short. Blagojevich argued Tuesday that accountability is a big part of his plan. But mostly it’s about spending more money. As is, many Illinois school officials (especially Downstate) cry poor rather than convince their property taxpayers to shoulder a heftier burden. They cry poor rather than consolidate districts to shrink the number of highly paid local officials. They cry poor rather than show anyone that their real priority is spending smarter, rather than spending more.

Downstate rural schools don’t have tons of administrators and, frankly, in many cases could use more so there is some actual curriculum reform. The best way to pay for that is through consolidation where possible. Too many downstate districts create a situation that is unsustainable.

The inner ring districts in the suburbs are hurt by the current system because their property values are largely stuck without new development, but it’s hardly a crisis across all Districts. Suburban districts can vote for the schools they want for the most part–they actually have the resources to tax. While a property tax-income tax swap might make good sense as a horse trade, it isn’t because of those poor poor people out there in relatively well off communities.

Many downstate Districts that are rural in character don’t have the wealth to tax. Unit 4 and Unit 5 are perfect examples of what the Trib might complain about, but frankly they are the exception. Take even District 87 in Bloomington that is exactly like inner ring suburban districts which are landlocked and face relatively little growth in assessed valuation. Other rural districts don’t even have that.

Consolidation helps the problem, it doesn’t solve it for most rural districts. They need a higher foundation level and they desperately need technical help in the areas of finance, curriculum and help in building modern buildings.

Trib Editorial–The Structural Problem Created

The Trib gets the finance end correct

If you’re wondering how, in prior decades, Illinois governors and legislators created the state pension funding crisis that so cripples their successors today, grab a front-row seat. This school funding plan rests on the same philosophy: Today’s needs are so pressing that it’s OK to take money from future generations of schoolkids.

It’s the same old story of selling off assetts and then using the proceeds up in the short term while not dealing with the need for increased taxes or cuts in services. Given the general voting patterns in Illinois increasing taxes is a permissible position under the right circumstances, but Blagojevich long ago punted on that idea. Perhaps most frustrating is that the current tax system is regressive and so keeping it as it is hurts the poor the hardest.

Unless Judy is going to face up to that reality, it’s another four years of one or the other lying about state finances. No one has been honest since Dawn Clark Netsch and unfortunately, a lot of bad campaign choices led that to be a cautionary tale.

The Good

$1.5 Billion in construction.

This should be one of the less contentious issues and not tied to structural spending so the boost is a positive.

Small schools is a great idea–while I don’t believe it’s entirely a strong finding, there is a lot of evidence they can improve educational completion. Again, this is not a continuing cost so boosting spending in the short term is fine.

I’m skeptical of identity schools, but there is a lot of support for them and as long as local districts are making the decision, fine. Again, transition funding doesn’t create an ongoing category in the budget.

Consolidation is good, though still voluntary. The point of curriculum allignment is a big deal and shouldn’t be overlooked. Again, this isn’t an ongoing expense so it is a reasonable expense for short term expenditures.

Special ed funding–great idea and necessary, but the transition will be far longer than the projections.

Mentoring for teachers is probably one of the more effective ways to improving teaching quality. The key point here is to align requirements at all levels which is often difficult to do.

Improving Educational Colleges is all correct in the generals, but the details are incredibly difficult to address. I think this is an area that is going to be far more vexing than people think.

Performance Pay–eh. Whatever. Not a horrible idea, but difficult to effectively implement.

My personal feeling is that teachers need to better understand how to relate test results to pedagogical style and student needs. When teachers get test results they are often not well trained in using that to evaluate how they teach and so self-evaluation suffers.

The textbook plan is solid in general–and once on the new schedule, that funding should be continued making this a structural change in education funding. I believe the attempt is to sell it as a catch-up, but realistically, the need is always there and the state has skipped out on it for too long. What is extremely positive is the means test of the funds for Districts.

The technology bit is fine–I tend to think we oversell technology in the classroom so the devil is in the details. Students should have access to decent computers and reasonably up-to-date software so while I think there is probably too much in this category, it’s not an unreasonable position. If the tutoring for math and reading is done electronically, a lot of the results can better be tracked by school personnel.

Library and other financing is important for poorer districts especially. Libraries should be fun, vibrant places in schools and improving them potentially improves literacy.

Absolutely critical–revamping the state career and technical education curriculum. While this one won’t get much press attention, it should.

Extending the school year is another critical point of the plan and whether there is adequate funding is a good question. Ultimately, it’s a step toward year around school which is a far more effective calendar than one based on agricultural cycles.

The parental involvement piece is nice, but no one has solved that riddle yet so I’d don’t take it that seriously. Nice try though and perhaps something good will come out of it.

The real questions are probably on the financial end. While I have some serious reservations, the real position to critique it from is what are the new programs that are worthwhile in the plan? And from there, then fight over how to fund it or if it can be funded. The cheap answer is to simply say it’s a bad financing plan–that might be the case, but is it better to not have the programs or to find another way to finance it–I’d argue the second, this is a strong proposal on the merits even if the financing has many issues.

The Structural Spending

Some of the money is one-shot, other is structural spending that will have to be supported over time. Looking at page 52, here are some of the categories that are structural:

Foundation Level: $250 Million
Special Ed Funding: $200 Million

The rest may be structural, but some of it is simply transitional and as such, a few years of funding may be adequate.

After those 4 years, there is a huge question as to how it would continue to be funded.

Guv’s Proposal

Policy Wise A

Okay, I was gearing up to bitch about it, and after getting through the unnecessary crap about previous Governors, much of the plan is innovative and quite strong. There are a few quibbles here and there on substance, but it is very, very good.

The financial end–I’m not quite there yet.