April 2006

When You Don’t Keep Up

ArchPundit April 18, 2006 No Comments

Via Fritchey,

The State Journal-Register discusses the situation that allowed Ryan to flourish:

U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin gave some interesting insight into Ryan during a meeting with the newspaper?s editorial board on Monday. Durbin said he and Ryan worked well together – especially since they represent different political parties – and the senator credited Ryan as being instrumental in making the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum a reality.

But Durbin said sometimes Ryan would reminisce about the old days – 1950s and 1960s – and how deals got done back then. Ryan too often was ?looking in the rearview mirror, ? said Durbin.

It is obvious that Ryan feels he was judged too harshly by today?s higher standards – an indication that he has not accepted responsibility for his misdeeds and corrupt nature.

?The decision today is not in accordance with the kind of public service I?ve given to the people of Illinois over 40 years,? said Ryan after the verdict was read.

Translation: ?I gave you all that Illinois FIRST pork, the Lincoln museum, and hired lots of your cousins and brothers-in-law, and this is what I get in return??

Ryan definitely is a ?means justify the ends? sort of guy. But let?s look at some of the ends. They didn?t all result in a new museum to honor Lincoln or a shiny new firetruck for Carlinville.

I can’t remember or find the quote right now, but if someone can find it, something very similar was said about Rostenkowski. The person speaking essentially said, Rostenkowski hadn’t changed, the world around him had and he hadn’t adjusted.

The same thing can happen to parties. I have a lot of confidence that Madigan gets this especially–(talking on the phone in the hall?, but also the obsessiveness former staffers express about the line between state work and campaign time), but it takes more than keeping your nose clean, it’s also looking forward and creating a system that institutionalizes those changes.

What Just Dawned On ME

ArchPundit April 18, 2006 No Comments

This is probably obvious to many in Springfield, but both Edgar and Blagojevich were/are widely disliked within the Lege. For what seems to be two very different people, the basic problem is neither would actually bother to go down to the Lege and do a bit of humble gladhandling.

Why then the difference in perception? Edgar was a downstate guy who lived in the Governor’s Mansion and his aloofness came off as Mr. Clean. Blagojevich strikes everyone as Eddie Haskill and seldom ventures out below I-80 other than for campaign stops.

One of the Weakest Systems in the Nation

ArchPundit April 18, 2006 No Comments

George Ryan didn’t just happen–he was found guilty of things that were largely commonplace for many, many years, though probably not to the degree he and Fawell mastered.

While Ryan took it much further with common bribery and a racket for him to benefit from it, the State of Illinois has one of the weakest official conduct and campaign finance regulatory system’s in the nation if not the weakest. Most states ban corporate and union contributions, but not Illinois. Many states limit the amount one can give–not Illinois. Most states have some regulation of state contractors and disclosure of their campaign contributions specific to their role–not Illinois.

John Fritchey has a bill that would significantly reduce the impact donations on state contracts (he overstates it a bit in saying it would end it, but hey, it’s a good bill).

It’s simple and easy to pass and it does very little to cut off the flow of cash to campaigns in general, but still tries to disconnect campaign contributions from contracting duties. That’s a good start.

More to the point, Illinois Democrats can crow about George Ryan and you get that right for a few days when the other side screws up that badly. However, voters are going to realize one day that change isn’t about bipartisanship necessarily when Democrats control the Legislature and the Executive.

There’s a disdain for this stuff in Springfield–it’s the purview of the hated goo-goos and such and it’s not worth the time of the leaders. It needs to be time though because if Democrats don’t take the lead on this issue (and call Republican bluffs), the time will come when Democrats face corruption charges and won’t have anything to point to to show how they tried to avoid the problem. It’s one thing if someone goes off the reservation and breaks the law, it’s another if the legal environment is so permissive that breaking the law is way over the ethical line voters expect. Democrats have the power, pass the bill. Make it go into effect on January 1st so we don’t fight over this cycle, but pass Fritchey’s bill and then look at a wider reform similar to what Blagojevich proposed, but hasn’t worked to pass.

The Change in Springfield

ArchPundit April 18, 2006 No Comments

Rich’s weekly column details several changes in behavior that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

The paranoia level is pretty much at an all-time high at the Illinois Statehouse.

Walk past House Speaker Michael Madigan?s office and there?s a good chance you?ll see him standing in the hallway talking on his cell phone. Madigan won?t take any calls that are even remotely political in his own office these days. A few years ago he didn?t even have a cell phone.

House Republican Leader Tom Cross requires his leadership team and other political advisers to leave the Statehouse and walk across a parking lot to a private office to talk about even minor campaign issues.

Both the Senate Democratic and the Senate Republican spokespersons won?t take campaign-related press calls unless they are out of their respective offices. The Senate GOP spokesperson won?t even respond to campaign-related instant messages on her AOL account unless she?s at home.

.

Madigan talking. Next he’ll smile weekly.

Polling Site

ArchPundit April 18, 2006 No Comments

Charles Franklin is a very smart guy and can tell you more about polling than any typical media pundit. He’s a Professor at UW-Madison after stupidly being denied tenure at Washington University. He has started a blog on polling that concentrates upon Presidential Approval. In addition to analyzing the numbers he throws out some good ways in which to analyze whether a poll is legitimate. He specifically addresses Survey USA today and as usual, provides an incredibly balanced view on their methodology.

Oh, and he taught me everything I know, though not everything he knows.

Charles sits on the National Election Study oversight board which is one of the most important surveys on voting behavior. In addition, while he has a stellar publishing record, he takes his responsbility further to educating the public. Finally, while academia is often full of petty silliness, when two colleagues of mine wrote a paper that extended a finding of his he not only didn’t write a rebuttal as many do, he promoted the work.

The Ramifications

ArchPundit April 17, 2006 1 Comment

Patrick Collins is a star who may well be the next Patrick Fitzgerald.

If you are under investigation by Fitzgerald and you have done anything wrong, plea now. Really. This is one of the more complex cases I’ve ever seen and Webb is a damn good defense lawyer–and Webb couldn’t even get Ryan off on any of the charges.

In DC, Springfield, and Chicago, there are a lot of people who thought that just maybe Patrick Fitzgerald was overrated. This result will sober them up very quickly.

Finally, given the jury problems there are some very serious issues for appeals. I don’t know which way they will go, but it is certainly possible that a new trial will be ordered. I imagine if that happens, Ryan and Warner will plea. If not, they will be in prison, possibly for the rest of their lives.

Guilty

ArchPundit April 17, 2006 3 Comments

Both–on all counts. Wow.

Let the appeals begin.

Ryan Verdict About 11 AM

ArchPundit April 17, 2006 No Comments

……hmmmmm…what happens if they don’t convict?

Apparently 11 AM was even more optimistic than expected.

WGN TV coverage at the Trib