Words Not to Use in a Political Debate I
ArchPundit
Multiplicity.
Gidwitz’s handlers need to hit him with a dumb by four to speak plainly.
January 2006
Hey Tim
So, to be clear, from now on the standard at NBC is that if someone has a supporter who ‘corresponds’ with a Senator, the Senator or Member of Congress or Executive office operative or President or campaign official has to answer questions about something the supporter says.
IOW, every social conservative Republican has to start answering all sorts of questions about James Dodson’s statements every time he says something…this is going to be fun.
Cheapskate Jesse
The DCCC’s first priority is always to reelect Democratic Members of Congress and then it moves on to capturing other seats. A pretty good deal if you are a Democratic Member of Congress and on top of that, it’s a 5 minute walk to their offices to do fundraising or other political work.
Now, if Jesse wants to be the guy who is a good Democrat and wants support from the Party, shouldn’t he support the Party?
Pay the bill Congressman.
Austin Mayor: Call Your Cable Company
Showtime is picking up Arrested Development probably.
Showtime has some of the best TV going with Weeds, Huff and the incredible Sleeper Cell. Now, Arrested Development.
Cook County Poll
Rich has a poll of Cook County voters over at the Capitol Fax Blog
Biggest news–Stroger is in big trouble–Claypool up three on him. That’s huge.
Notably, Blagojevich’s numbers are only at 53% in a match up with Eisendrath at 13%. That’s not good in a heavily Democratic County where Blagojevich should have huge numbers. More later on both bits.
Roskam’s WarChest.
Jeeshh….
Roskam comes in with $1,066,000 for the cycle and $834,000 on hand.
For the quarter $386,000 raised
From the press release
Roskam FEC Report Highlights
·
Total Individual Donors – 2,402
·
Individual Donors who contributed less than $200
– 1,493
·
Online Contributions – $130,000
·
No personal loans/contributions from the
candidate
Establishment Republicans Win?
Rich points to the Hotline’s post on rising stars in Illinois. The thing I picked up on was the Judy Baar Topinka entry
State Treas. Judy Baar Topinka (R): Running for Gov, leading in
the polls at the moment. Conservatives don’t like her, but “Judy is an
establishment” GOPer in IL, “and establishment” GOPers “win.”
This isn’t necessarily true anymore. Certainly Jim Ryan his primary, but looking back at statewide elections since 1996, we don’t see the establishment dominating contested primaries. Salvi beat Kustra in 1996. Fitzgerald beat Didrickson in 1998. Jack Ryan won in 2004, though one can argue whether he was the establishment candidate or not. The establishment isn’t what it used to be.
That doesn’t mean Judy won’t or can’t win, but increasingly, Republican primaries are moving the party farther to the right and the organization from social conservatives and movement conservatives gives them a significant advantage in any race. Oberweis is polarizing enough that he might not be capable of putting together a win against Judy, but it’s not unreasonable to see it as a possibility. That said the best analysis I’ve seen yet is Russ Stewart’s in which he predicts wins for Judy and Birkett
6th District Round-up
This race is becoming increasingly hot so there will be a lot of these through the primary.
Stuart Rothenberg ranks the race a top race for control of Congress in Roll Call
llinois’ 6th. Democrats have a shot at the seat of retiring Rep. Henry Hyde (R), but they must endure a primary and overcome a district in which Bush drew 53 percent in each of his presidential races. Unsuccessful ’04 nominee Christine Cegelis starts as the Democratic frontrunner, but many party insiders and the state AFL-CIO are backing Illinois Army National Guard Maj. Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran. The GOP nominee will be state Sen. Peter Roskam, a politically savvy and personable former Capitol Hill aide. Roskam starts out as the favorite, but it could be competitive.
Duckworth gets frontpaged in USA Today. While news junkies scoff at USA Today, marginal voters read it. It’s a huge free media opportunity.
Sweet’s article on the 13th about Duckworth’s “Meet and Greet” at a law firm.
IFT backs Duckworth giving her AFL-CIO, SEIU, and AFSCME. If IEA endorses, that’ll give Duckworth essentially all of the union support both monetarily and for volunteers.
Cegelis Interview Later This Week
Christine gave me a good amount of time yesterday. I didn’t have the twins begging for attention so I was able be a bit more organized for this one. I imagine I’ll have it up Wednesday/Thursday. Tenatively, I’m planning on posting some of it at Illinoize and some at Soap Box Chicago if Jeff likes the idea.
More From Research 2000 Poll
Hotline has the full results.
Blagojevich 52%
Oberweis 33%
Blagojevich 57%
Gidwitz 22%
Gidwitz even loses in the collar counties while Oberweis gets Blagojevich over 50%.
What’s great about these numbers is that Oberweis has 28% approval and 35% approval. For someone without a strong identity amongst the general public, more dislike him than like him. That’s tough to pull off.
The Gidwitz/Rauschenberger plan continues to never need to unravel because it never raveled with Gidwitz have a 9% approval and 8% disapproval. IOW, Whodwhitz.
I understand those who just won’t support Topinka because they disagree/dislike her, but it’s painfully obvious she’s the only one with shot at beating Blagojevich short of him being indicted.
UPDATE: There are more numbers in the Hotline, but I won’t post all of them out of respect for their subscribers. Just in case anyone is curious why I only listed what I did.