2004

What is Ryan Thinking?

ArchPundit June 24, 2004 4 Comments

Okay, here are two quotes from Ryan and different times:

During the divorce:

We did go to one avant garde nightclub in Paris which was more than either one of us felt comfortable with. We left and vowed never to return.

Tuesday:

“She says three times over eight years [of marriage], we went to places that she felt uncomfortable,”

Clearly Jack is avoiding the issue of whether he did go three places, but I can safely say I don’t know anyone who’d parse their words like this if they weren’t trying avoid admitting perjury. ‘She says’ can clearly mean he is addressing the worst case scenario, but who the hell would say it like that? If it isn’t true, you’d say that under these conditions.

Well, if my ex-wife’s lies were true, they wouldn’t be a big deal.

No. Doesn’t pass the smell test. Certainly not enough for a prosecution, but enough to wonder what the hell.

And no, I don’t think he should be prosecuted for perjury if he were to admit he lied in the depositions. The lie was immaterial to the case and while unethical, is more stupid than anything (if a lie).

Don’t Even Think About Fitzgerald

ArchPundit June 24, 2004 No Comments

Some of the suggestions that Peter Fitzgerald might be asked to take on the race if Jack! jumps out miss a couple important issues Peter has.

1) Peter is a crappy campaigner. I’m being generous too.

2) Peter’s numbers sucked in an NRSC poll a year ago and he has been flying even lower on the radar of most voters since then.

3) Peter has enemies. Mostly for all the right reasons, but the Speaker is still smarting over the appointment of Patrick Fitzgerald, but more importantly from Wednesday’s Hill:

If Ryan is dumped, don?t look for the Hastert camp to ask Fitzgerald to run again. The bad blood between the two just got worse. Hastert?s team is steaming over Fitzgerald?s request to the acting inspector general at the Treasury Department to investigate whether the Air Transportation Stabilization Board has faced ?any inappropriate political pressure or intimidation?? in considering the loan application of Chicago-based United Airlines. Though Fitzgerald did not mention Hastert by name, the Speaker is a target of the letter. Hastert did call Treasury Secretary John Snow on United?s behalf. Hastert spokesman John Feehery called the Fitzgerald letter was ?outrageous.??

No way does the Republican Central Committee go for him with the Speaker in opposition. Ironically, Peter did a good thing. Or perhaps expectedly.

It’s Always Kjellander’s Fault

ArchPundit June 23, 2004 1 Comment

Doesn’t necessarily make it not true, but there are few Leader articles that don’t go back to him and today is no exception. Rod McCulloch is saying that Kjellander pressured him to keep the contents of the files under wraps during the primary.

“Kjellander was the only one in the state party who told me to keep my mouth shut about what I saw,” McCulloch told IllinoisLeader.com. “He said that the President hated Oberweis, and that he [Kjellander] would take care it after the primary. He told me just to let it go.”

Interesting insight into Oberweis’ position in the party.

Just Some of the Problems with the Talking Points

ArchPundit June 23, 2004 No Comments

Contained in this thread at the Illinois Leader.

Thank Goodness for Eric Zorn

ArchPundit June 23, 2004 1 Comment

He has done the hard work of rounding up all the major (and minor in my case) reactions to the file release.

I think the most interesting is the Sun-Times editorial page that was quite critical of even going after the files:

When we endorsed Ryan, we said he would “best represent the highest principles and traditions of the Republican Party.” In light of his unprincipled behavior in handling this crisis — which doesn’t reflect well on how he would handle a crisis in office — we can no longer say that. And it’s safe to say that Ryan has alienated such staunch party figures as state Republican chairman Judy Baar Topinka, who is furious at Ryan for letting her think there was nothing embarrassing in the court papers — if these revelations aren’t embarrassing, what does he think is? — and former Gov. Jim Edgar, who also was kept in the dark about the sex clubs. Ryan should now do the honorable thing, which is to step down from the nomination and let the party choose someone else to run against Democrat Barack Obama. The scandals of one Ryan, former Gov. George Ryan, have already damaged the political fortunes of the Republican Party; the GOP can do without this Ryan dragging it down further. And Illinois voters deserve a better choice in the November election for U.S. Senate.

Cegelis on Collective Interest Tonight at 9:00

ArchPundit June 23, 2004 No Comments

On with Carl Nyberg

and:

At 8:30 PM it’s Rivka of RespectfulofOtters about why
it’s wrong for mental health professionals to diagnose
public figures without examining them

Now, TV Guide

ArchPundit June 23, 2004 No Comments

Which officially reaches the most ignorant of voters known as last minute deciders.

RESISTANCE IS FUTILE: Star Trek: Voyager Borg Jeri Ryan accused her former husband, Republican Senate candidate Jack Ryan, of trying to coerce her into performing sex acts at various clubs while others (Janeway, the Doctor, the entire Borg collective) watched. The charges ? first leveled during the couple’s bitter child-custody battle back in 2000 ? were made public on Monday. In the documents the actress also acknowledged infidelity on her part, but only after the marriage was irretrievably broken.

What’s the Calculus?

ArchPundit June 23, 2004 2 Comments

So here is the issue that makes the whole debacle interesting–who plays what hand?

If you are social conservative how do you play the hand so that you keep a social conservative on the ticket?

Is supporting Jack! better for you than getting him replaced by a RINO (Republican in Name Only)? If they do better than expected doesn’t that weaken you? If such a creature makes it you need them to bomb.

Or can you find someone socially conservative to take the spot and get the Central Committee to go along? Who fits that bill? Rauschenberger? But he won’t say he’d take it as long as Jack! is in, and he doesn’t want to be a two time loser. Who else is there that can get through the Central Committee and please social conservative? Maybe Oberweis? Pretty please with sugar on top?

If you are a moderate you want to find a consensus candidate who is going to be good enough to get people out on election day. Who can do that? The argument amongst many is that Edgar, Topinka or Big Jim might be able to. But a few problems–conservatives dislike the first two–actually hate Topinka. Big Jim has been out of the game and is too liberal for social conservatives. All three would insist on funding from the NRSC and the national Republicans already wrote this off. Worse, you might not have a significant chunk of the conservative base even bother to vote if any of those three are at the top.

On top of that Topinka doesn’t really want it–shes gearing up for Flowbeejovich and O’Malley in ’06. Edgar really seems to be happy in semi-retirement and Big Jim could result in a lot of nastiness from other Republicans. Corrinne Wood would be run up a flagpole by the social conservatives and that is about it that is left of moderates–other than some legislators not dumb enough to fight this fight.

Frankly, I don’t think anyone is sure of what the hell to do yet. They’ll let it shake out for several days as Jack! wears down and see if they can get the upperhand in replacing him. And if he proves to be obstinate, he might just sit there with a civil war going on around him, but not directly about him.