2004

Pappas Feedback

The Pappas campaign doesn’t like the judgment of her commercials, but they report lots of good feedback from viewers for her new commercials both from Illinois and surrounding states that really like the ads. So to be fair, take a look at one of the ads as Maria Pappas’ web site.

They also pointed me to a nice profile of her in Today’s Chicago Woman

Do I think Pappas can still win? Err….not very easily, though a scenario of well placed ads hitting undecided women as Hull comes down was the only scenario I could imagine about a week ago and, well, it could happen. The problem is the free media coverage any candidate needs is not likely to be fawning given her performance in the debates and to overcome the Hull saturation just to be heard is very hard at this point. It seems more likely that Obama will benefit from that demographic, while Hynes is likely to pick up any white males downstate. The big disclaimer there is the Hull divorce issue hasn’t been nearly as big of a deal downstate as it was in the Chicago market.

Having seen the ad linked to on her front page, I think it is a decent ad for an introductory ad–so it makes sense in Southern Illinois where it is supposed to be playing soon, but in Cook and surrounding areas where she has name ID, it is doesn’t do much to win voters familiar with her.

Dan Hynes in Metro East

Springfield, IL ? U.S. Senate candidate Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes will attend rallies in Quincy, Rock Island, Moline, Springfield, Marion, Fairview Heights and Granite City. U.S. Representative Jerry Costello will join Hynes in Marion and Granite City. By the end of the fly around, Hynes will have traveled to 43 counties in six days over the past month to share with Illinoisans his plans to create jobs, provide every child with a quality education, and make health care affordable and accessible.

Marion
2:20 pm Rally at Williamson County Airport
Rt. 13 & Hwy.148

Fairview Heights

4:00 pm Rally at Steamfitters Local 439
1220 Donald Bailey Drive

Granite City
5:00 pm Rally at Steelworkers Local 1899
2014 State Street

Cahokia
6:15 pm Media Availability at St. Louis Downtown Airport
Midcoast Terminal
10 Archview Drive

Democratic Senate Cattle Call 3-5

1. Obama. Right now at the top of the polls. Showing significant upward movement in some, hanging just above the others in some. Getting great free press, but largely absent from downstate. This could be a problem if Hull free falls before the election. He is the primary downstate competition for Hynes and if Hull falls apart there, Hynes gains.

The Trib pointed out that Hynes has organization, but so does Obama. While not as broad remember Roland Burris consistently pulled in the high twenties and higher and Roland was no Barack. The A-A machine throughout the state produces a lot of votes as well. The problem is he has little visibility elsewhere.

2. Hynes. Ahead or tied with Hull in the polls and has the organization to deliver his votes. As I’ve been saying since November of 2002, organization typically wins in Illinois and Hynes has it. That said, his commercials may get swept under a torrent of Hull ads. What has struck me about the campaign to date is that while it criticizes the President, it hasn’t been the kind of criticism that excites the base. Labor loves him and he is clearly targeting them with every commercial. One thing about the commercial with his wife–you two don’t look like a couple. I understand she is accomplished in her own right, but she comes off as a random doctor in the ad.

3. Hull. Still taking a beating in the Chicago press. Front page of the Trib today occurred when I thought it would die down. By Monday most of this will be over and it will be on to an $8 million ad blitz. Is it enough? No. Is the ground effort he has put in place good enough? We don’t know.

4. Chico. We have to get this guy on some ticket again. He has been great in the debates, but the strong personalities in this race have shut him out. Strong candidate, weak numbers. Just not his race.

5. Pappas. Might pick up some votes in Chicago with big media buys, but it sounds like the commercials are strange–hence not very effective.

6. Skinner. Hull’s a big boy. Let him take care of himself. Being spun happens to everyone, but generally you shouldn’t be by the other candidates if you are a candidate.

7. Washington. I hope she kept the day job.

Republican Senate Cattle Call 3-5

1. Empty Suit! And I actually feel bad for the guy. Leave the child custody papers out of it. They are none of our business. And shame on the others for suggesting there is something dark about his past without having any evidence. Hull at least had an order of protection–this is just empty fishing.

2. Oberweis. Angry at immigrants and flying around looking down at Chicago for no apparent reason.

3. McKenna. Present and accounted for, but going nowhere.

4. Rauschenberger. No money even though a favorite of many papers and even conservative activists. Free media not enough this year.

5. Borling. Nice guy. Not going anywhere.

6. Wright. Making good connections for a different run. But silly rabbit, only multimillionaires get to run on thin records.

7. Kathuria. Packing his bags as he is repaying loans to himself. Thanks for playing.

Is Fred Phelps Ready to Implode?

Fred Phelps, the odious hatemonger who runs Godhatesfags.com, should be crisscrossing the US having coniptions about gay marriage, but it appears from his schedule he is staying close to home until a visit to New Paltz, New York. Interesting choice, you’d think a man so sure of himself might go to San Francisco to really confront gay marriages. Or is he afraid? Sort of like the old Eddie Murphy joke, “The Klan needs to come to the ghetto–we need the sheets”.

Fred’s minions visited my church a few years ago and the primary response was one of pity for them.