2004

Stunning Results

Hull obviously collapsed, but given his campaign was built upon name recognition to be followed up with issues, once he was taken off message the result shouldn’t be that surprising. He spent the last three weeks talking about personal issues.

Hynes is coming in at the bare base of what might be expected for him. While it removes any sense that he is invincible, I wouldn’t bet against him in the 2010 Governor’s race.

Pappas just ran into a buzzsaw. One thing that became clear over the last few days is that Obama’s campaign had taken on a life of its own. Not as much of a life as it took on, but a life of its own. Pappas just fell into the background.

On the Republican side, Jack! kept his share of the vote, but certainly wasn’ t overwhelming. Rauschenberger did have a large surge, but just a little too late. Expect him in the next Governor’s race. The wildcard is whether he’ll run against O’Malley who has been running since Jim Ryan beat him last time. By the time the general election is over, I have a feeling the Republicans will be wishing they had voted for the less exciting Rauschenberger.

In a Democratic leaning state any Republican faces an uphill battle. That said, I think a variety of issues will keep Ryan from getting traction. Frankly, I think he is just too conservative for Illinois. Charisma helps, but his speaking skills aren’t as good as advertised. But I’ve been wrong before.

Rich Miller pointed out that Daley has every reason to work hard for Obama, or he might just run for something more locally and with the numbers tonight, he win in just about anything except maybe a showdown with the Mayor himself.

But Kass says it in a much more entertaining way

“O’Bama!” Musical. (PG). Cuba Gooding Jr. Gene Hackman. Musical about Irish-American Democratic political bosses led by Hackman, who rush to adopt an African-American Senate candidate (Gooding). No, I mean, they really adopt him. Includes the hit song: “Youse Can’t Run Fer Mare If Yer Stuck in Washington, D.C.”

Capitol Fax has some Sense of Lege Races

Check it out

He also discusses why he doesn’t make predictions. He makes very good points. One point is that they are silly. For me that is the reason to make them, but I’m also not a journalist who makes his living on his credibility so I think his reasoning makes sense. In fact, I usually overstate my predictions simply because it is fun if a possibility occurs and I call it. See my numbers for Rauschenberger.

And I disagree about exit polling….but we already know that.

Key Lege Races Today

The info in the Capitol Fax Extra might impact some of the Lege primaries. Most of the races aren’t contested during the primary, but 26 are.

Rep. Lou Lang is one on the bubble with the party apparatus of the 50th Ward.
Rep. Charles Morrow verse Milt Patterson with good turnout
Rep. Patricia Bailey, D versus Aaron Patterson–released from death row for a wrongful conviction
and in the Senate:
Rep. Carole Pankau, R-Roselle, and township trustee Dennis Reboletti of Elmhurst Carole got some electrons from me here Kind of like Chris Lauzen–probably didn’t need my attention.