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Call It A Comeback

2004

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That Didn’t Take Long

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The Comptroller returns to duty without having to worry about G-Rod backing an opponent.

Comptroller Dan Hynes said this past year’s sources of one-time revenue — like the lease of the Thompson Center — won’t be available and the state will be short $3.8 billion. Blagojevich’s budget predicts a deficit of only $1.7 billion.

“We are basically saying this challenge the governor and legislature will have to deal with as they begin budget negotiations,” said Hynes spokesman Allen Henry. “One way or another, they have to come up with something.”

Now, if G-Rod is paying attention, he needs to take this seriously because it gives one of his likely opponents the best line of attack for 2006 (we here at ArchPundit rarely contain ourselves to election at hand)

State Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R-Elgin) picked up on Hynes’ warning and wondered if the governor’s plan to close the deficit will be enough.

“Why would a Democrat exaggerate Rod’s problems?” Rauschenberger said, referring to Hynes. “Unless, of course [the higher numbers] were right.”

Rauschenberger, a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, noted that the state is negotiating new union contracts, which could throw off the governor’s estimates.

“The bills are not going away. And this administration is proposing $7 million in additional spending,” Rauschenberger said.

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Capitol Fax Tidbits

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Rich Miller has several small bits up over at the Capitol Fax site.

First is more on the license for the 10th Casiono. Apparently the Gaming Board doesn’t want to talk publicly about it. There are other ways to be forced to talk publicly and none of them are pleasant so they might factor that into their consideration.

He also analyzes G-Rod’s brilliant move on gun rights which appears to be make a big fuss until you figure out what the hell you are doing and in the process hanging out your fellow party members to dry. If you are going to try and work out a deal, the time for that deal was when the legislation was in committee. Instead, the Governor got a couple cheap headlines.

Speaking of demagoguing the State Board of education appears ready to give G-Rod more material as the Auditor General reams them over poor financial oversight.

And finally, in the we don’t even know if there is a problem, but we are so used to panicking so let’s talk about who could replace Jack! sweepstakes, Edgar is reportedly open to replacing Jack! if necessary. The reports are that in initially considering the race Edgar didn’t get the support he was promised. It is hard to believe that support would be any better this time around.

Edgard would put up a tough fight, but one has to wonder what the impact of a very mobilized right wing would have on his candidacy.

Also, an interesting article on Patricia Baileys’ residency problems from Sunday.

ICFST

Wading Into The Leader Pool

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This is a classic. If you are a political operative you are under no obligation to make yourself known on political web site discussion groups. In fact, it is kind of stupid.

Now that I’ve let 5 or 6 of you carry on your hate campaign against me. Here are the facts:

2/27/04- Kane County Conservative Coalition received $5000 from Family-PAC

3/1/04- Republicans for Simmons reported receiving $2500 from Jon Zahm personally. This was a number equivalent to money paid to me by the KCCC. It need not be reported until the semi-annual report.

3/1/04- Wiegand for State Representative Committee reports an in-kind contribution from Family-PAC/Goliath Slayer Communications for $2500 (salary for field services)

Now you know where the $5000 went. What is illegal? What is unethical? Where’s the scandal?

Keep grasping at straws. You’re making fools of yourselves.

Jon Zahm

Goliath Slayer
www.goliathslayers.com

Whether it is legal (and it probably is in Illinois minus specific evidence of a quid pro quo) it is a bad idea to even entertain such discussions about where is being funneled. The most important issue left out of the thread appears to be that John Zahm is the President of the Kane County Conservative Coalition. The practice is certainly unethical, though widespread through Democratic and Republican circles.

But giving Patrick Fitzgerald an easy tip off of something fishy on the internet is probably a bad idea. It isn’t as if picking off another Republican operative would be hard given the scope of the Ryan investigation.

UPDATE: For those not familiar with Zahm, I forgot to mention he is the guy who runs Family PAC too so it is even more humorous with that information.

Blog

Calling Da Speaker

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Remember my rant about the sad state of the Illinois Democratic Party’s on-line outreach?

Tom Cross continues the Republican efforts with a new blog and website. Overall a pretty good effort. The e-mail announcing it effectively covered three issues that are good issues for Republicans:

1. True Medical Malpractice Reform. Recently Leader Cross and the House Republicans announced their Med Mal Package called “Code Blue”. With it’s passage, Illinois will be able to retain more doctors in State and drive medical costs down.

2. Restore balance to Springfield. With Chicago Democrats controlling everything in Springfield, the rest of the state has been pushed aside. We need to resore some balance back in the Statehouse and get the rest of the State it’s fair share!

3. The House Republicans have not picked up a seat in the Statehouse since 1994. Leader Cross, Deputy Leader Hassert, and HRO are excited about the changes they have made and how they will have a positive impact on our message. We have many real good opportunities this year. Let’s pick up a seat!

I think the important thing about these messages are that the draw distinctions between without demagoguing on issues that divide Republicans themselves.

The blog is interesting in it gives a real personal voice to the Cross’ people which is very inviting.

My only criticism is the front page pic isn’t the most flattering. Cross isn’t a bad looking guy, but he still has that high school wrestler haircut.

Now, no one suggests that Mike Madigan should be blogging or that he even needs to be bothered with the details, but c’mon already!

I’m not sure if I was added because I’m on other Republican lists or not, but if not, smart marketing by the Cross people too.

Illinois Senate

The Incompetence of Election Law

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“Some are inspired geniuses mindful only of the greater good; some are connivers mindful only of personal good; most are wondering what’s for lunch.”

–Ken Herman of Austin American-Statesman describing the Texas Lege

Essential to the understanding of any legislative body is an understanding of who composes that body. The above quote could be repeated about all 50 states. When it is something legislators care about–like their lunch or wallets they pay attention. When it is a basic issue of good government, they still care about their lunch. Hence, most election law is hopelessly convoluted, often contradictory and usually half-ass.

In a stellar example of this, the State of Illinois doesn’t appear to have a plan to replace a US Senate Candidate who drops out. So remember the fuss in New Jersey over the replacement for Torricelli? This is even more problematic.

For statewide offices like governor and attorney general, the GOP state central committee picks the replacement. But two experts at the State Board of Elections say the law does not mention a U.S. Senate race. They added such a vacancy in a Senate contest is unprecedented in Illinois.

The odds are the state central committee would get to pick a successor, but given the unpredictability and split among the state’s GOP, a lawsuit could be filed to block that.

Even worse, Election Blog hits the issue and suggests a Constitutional problem:

The article does not mention one of the trickiest issues related to this question. Because this is a race for a federal office, the United States Constitution may limit how a replacement may be named. Article I, Section 4 of the Constitution provides that the state legislature may prescribe the rules for picking Senators. If the legislative scheme has a gap, can courts (as opposed to the Illinois legislature) fill it in without violating Article I, Section 4?

The concurring opinion of Justice Rehnquist in Bush v. Gore (joined by Justices Scalia and Thomas) raised a parallel question under Article II (pertaining to state legislatures providing the rules for choosing presidential electors). But an attack on the New Jersey Supreme Court’s decision to allow late replacement of dropout Robert Torricelli in the New Jersey Senate race a few years ago on these grounds failed, and the United States Supreme Court declined to intervene. The issue is far from settled.

We have no idea if this will be relevant in this case, but this is just another case where such problems in the law that make elections with strange circumstances difficult. Not only does the law restrict many people from the ballot, but it isn’t even coherent.

Via Political Wire

The Adults are Back In Charge

Dick Lugar Speaks

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There are few people I respect more in Washington than Dick Lugar. There are issues I disagree with him on–especially in domestic affairs, but in foreign affairs I’m pretty much in agreement with the guy. We’d probably differ on Latin American policies in the 1980s, but that is another issue.

Sunday, something that has gotten far too little coverage was said by Lugar:

But when Foreign Relations Chairman Richard Lugar was asked Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” whether less than three months would be too soon to hand over political power in the strife-torn nation, he said, “It may be, and I think it’s probably time to have that debate.”

Lugar said too that the Bush administration had yet to share with him its plans for a U.S. ambassador to Iraq or how to select and protect the estimated 3,000 necessary embassy staff.

“At this point,” he said, “I would have thought there would have been a more comprehensive plan.”

Having decided Iraqis would hold elections before writing a constitution, it would perhaps be consistent for the president to hand over governance of the country before it’s governable.

Lugar, Hagel, and Biden have worked together as a strong team in trying to get the President to plan better. I think the time has come to level with the American people that we will be there for a long time. For some time now, Lugar has argued for a minimum of five years. Given all the problems with the President’s prior plans, isn’t it time to consult with some of the wise old men around Washington?

I supported this war. I now regret that, but that is pointless to dwell on now in terms of going forward (not that there aren’t political ramifications). We have no choice, but to make Iraq work now and trying to do it exceptionally fast is folly. If we don’t get Iraq right we will see a scenario unfold that is unacceptable.

A) another strong man will arise who is relatively secular and brutal
B) A Shia Republic will be formed similar to Iran, but potentially more radical
C) Partition sending Turkey and Syria into land rushes
D) Civil War that could easily provide a haven to Al Qaeda or a similar group–ironically creating a link between Iraq and Al Qaeda

I view all of these as unacceptable from both humanitarian and strategic perspectives.

Illinois Senate

Jack! Vs. Ryan

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Many of you may wonder why I often refer to Jack Ryan as Jack! Mostly I enjoy making fun of politicians who have silly handles or whatever. This began in the last Governors race with Jim Ryan’s constant whine about being confused about George Ryan. I generally respect Jim Ryan, but it was too much and so much like J-Lo, Ryan and Ryan became J-Ry and G-Ry. And Blagojevich just screams for any number of nicknames, with Rich Miller’s G-Rod my general favorite. Jack! seems natural since it was meant to deflect attention from the last name.

So Jack! gets used when I’m being snarky, but in more serious posts, Ryan does just fine. Obama seems to have nothing fun for a nickname so, to date, he has been spared. In general I use it in good humor. If I really don’t like a politician, usually they end up with a really long nickname like Unindicted Co-conspirator Jerry Costello. Entirely fair, balanced, accurate and true.

Lots of stuff for tomorrow, but now, time for bed.

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Because It’s Been Too Long

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I’m exhausted and had a surprise family visit today, but I promised Jeff Berkowitz a response and events have kept me from keeping that promise until now. One of the advantages of blogging is the quick interaction of ideas. Apparently, I’m not included in that advantage many times.

But Jeff challenged this post I made a few days ago. Jeff’s argument is that Ryan has not proposed a program that would be underfunded and do little good.

Jeff is correct. I am very wrong. From both Jeff and other sources there is nothing suggesting that Ryan would only offer a pittance and so I must say to everyone, I’m sorry, but I really screwed that one up. It would appear that Ryan is open to try just about any serious plan in regards to vouchers and while he hasn’t developed a full plan, I agree with that. Overdeveloped plans are nice for fun, but they mean very little when legislating because things will change–especially for Freshman Senators. Setting out principles is actually a more honest strategy so Ryan gets credit for that too.
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