Obviously
ArchPundit
The endorsement has been delayed….
Up tomorrow. I really don’t fell guilty-yesterday was lot of blogging.
March 2004
Democratic Senate Cattle Call 3-8
1. Obama. Has the poll numbers and the good press. Getting the free press and getting good free press. Probably the largest group of motivated true believers to push the campaign forward. With Hynes probably the biggest benefit of having a low turnout election. While Hynes balances it with organization, Obama gets a core group of motivated volunteers.
2. Hynes. Decent polls and strong organization. Good media coverage. Still needs a better haircut. Key thing is that he can’t seem to get a hook in his media. Lots of organization on the ground though and should slightly outperform on election day.
3. Hull. Really the wildcard at this point. Several million in ads still coming out n the next few days. Seems to have stopped the bleeding, but free media has turned on him. Probably needs to move beyond the the divorce and stay on message like a laser. Downstate isn’t nearly as harsh on the divorce as Chicago and that is a key area of support.
4. Pappas. Still in there, and has a big media buy. My sense is the ad is one ad cycle too late, but still has good name recognition and no one really dislikes her. Needs to pick up undecided women.
5. Chico. Steve Rauschenberger of the Dems, but Dems have good candidates besides him.
6. Skinner. Might be marginal enough to throw the race, but frankly the race is so strung out at this point, who knows who is helped.
7. Washington. Web site down–no one knows anything. Any tips out there? Seems like about the time to get out and throw someone some support.
Republican Senate Cattle Call 3-8
This one is a snore. I need a new nickname for Ryan. Any suggestions?
1. Ryan! At least he won’t be whining like Jim Ryan about the name. Too bad Borling won’t be around to slap him around about NATO for the rest of the campaign. Can anyone find anything besides “I just think they can take care of themselves”? That might actually work with voters, but it shows a lack of depth–again.
2. Rauschenberger. Even stinking in the polls, he still has a better to shot to improve his standing than anyone else left. I have rarely seen, if ever, such a disconnect between the polls and the newspaper endorsements. I’m of the opinion this won’t be a hard race for any of the Democratic frontrunners, but Rauschenberger would keep them honest, and be damn funny.
3. Oberweis. Need a parody song set to Edelweiss. At least someone got ice cream for life out of this.
4. McKenna. He’s so boring, I got nothing.
5. Borling. He didn’t make an ass of himself.
6. Wright. May actually come out of this with good connections for his next run.
7. Kathuria. I think it’ll be hard to stretch this one on the resume.
Prison Blackmail
Rich Miller’s column this weekend hit on a bit of melodrama playing out between Blagojevich and Frank Watson.
The merits of the case to close the prison are beyond me. I have little opinion in that case, but the politics are pretty clear and they aren’t very pretty for Blagojevich. The prison is a major employer in Watson’s district–a district that is having a hard time making it.
Going after Watson might make political sense, but it doesn’t make sense in terms of being fair to a hard hit area. Watson can’t stop the Governor in most cases–let him and the Republicans sit out the budget again and again and again and instead pick off a couple choice defectors. But leave the prison guards out of it.
ArchPundit Endorsement: For Cook County Prosecutor
Duh, Richard Devine. The Tribune’s endorsement covers the essentials.
Devine has an excellent record and most importantly played a key role in the compromise over death penalty reform working with Obama to obtain a pilot program for police taping of interrogations. While slow in a few cases of questionable convictions he has not grandstanded like his moronic neighbor in DuPage and he has accepted that mistakes occur. He has had to sit out the Burge investigation, but he is honest and decent. And I hear he has a new grandchild!
100,000 Hits
I knew I’d hit it today given the uptick in traffic lately–thanks to everyone.
WLS-TV Poll
Democrats
Obama 28
Hull 21
Hynes 17
Pappas 11
Undecided 14
Republicans
Jack! 45
Angry-Anti-Immigrant Ice Cream Guy 13
McKenna 10
Rauschenberger 7
Undecided 21
The differences we see in these polls is probably due to their sampling methodology and more importantly how they calculate likely voters. I’d say the Republican race is clear.
The Democratic race is going to hinge on turnout, though I think some of the comments for other posts bring up important points, one thing is missing. African-American candidates can generally rely upon good turnout from African-Americans. So Obama has two groups with which he is concerned for turnout. In the African-American community he needs the Jacksons to ramp up the downstate turnout and can use any help there. And he needs to convert votes on the South Side where there is tension between him, Bobby Rush and some of the South Side African-American ministers. Such disaffection might not lead to high support for other candidates, but it could lead to lower turnout. The big issue for Obama in relation to turnout are those supporting him in other areas–liberals and women. He has to target them without much organizational support because those areas are dominated by regular machine organizations or unions. His support from teaching unions is a big help as is the SEIU endorsement, but ultimately he has to hope for decent turnout in areas where he is organizationally weak.
Hynes has the opposite problem. He needs voters who aren’t tied to organizations to turn out for him.
Hull has his own organization, though figuring out who are the likely supporters gets very confused given the fluid nature of his problems.
Pappas needs women, women, women to turn out in the city and burbs.
On the Republican side, only a miracle by Raushenberger’s legislative allies can pull out a surprise. Oberweiss and McKenna are dead in the water. Rauschenberger is farther behind, but has organizational support. Even that is unlikely to do much in this race.
UPDATE: The Pappas campaign just clued me into this poll being taken between 2/24 – 3/4 so it is really hard to tell how representative the sample is–a response on March 4th wouldn’t be the same as a response on February 24 given the fluid nature of the race.
To help everyone sort out these numbers, I’ll do a bit on polling in the next day or two that explains the different types of polls.
From the Grassroots: Hull Endorsement
Note–this is a series of endorsements from grassroots supporters of US Senate Candidates–meaning the opinions expressed are not mine. And please play nice in comments for these.
If you are a grassroots supporter–meaning not a part of the official apparatus (volunteers are fine) feel free to submit one. I reserve the right to edit for blatant falsehoods and anything legally actionable as well as good taste, but the vast majority will go up as submitted. The following is from guest blogger ArmChairPundit.
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Blair Hull receives my endorsement for the democratic nominee to the U.S. Senate from Illinois.
In a state where politics is the ultimate insider?s game, where the great combine has ruled the state for decades, and where democracy is all but dead in its largest city, Hull is a true outsider. His life has been full and complicated, but there is a progressive heart at its core. His actions and experiences may not have been legislative or governmental, but they have made a significant impact on the world in which we live, improving the lives of many, particularly women, gay men and lesbians.
Read More
What the Hell is a Pantagraph
Well, in my youth it was a right wing reactionary rag that screwed up every story it printed. The single best example was the bold headline “Satanic Worship Comes to Central Illinois” on the front page. The story asserted that satanic worshippers had killed a sheep and who knows what else. About a week later a second page retraction was printed noting that a farmers dog had simply had a snack one day. Details.
The joke was that along with the Post Amerikan, Bloomington-Normal residents were blessed with the single worst right wing paper and the single worst left wing paper. Since then the Pantagraph has been sold to the Pulitzer group and has improved.
But what is a Pantagraph? The Pantagraph reports:
The Pantagraph’s name is derived from the Greek words “panta” and “grapho,” which have a combined meaning of “write all things.” Charles Merriman is the man responsible for giving The Pantagraph its name. In the words of Merriman, the name is “a perpetual injunction upon its editors to dip their pens fearlessly into all matters of human interest.” When Merriman named The Pantagraph on December 1, 1853, he was a co-owner of the paper with Jesse Fell. The Pantagraph’s previous name was “The Intelligencer.”
Senate Endorsements Coming Later Today
Those sending ’em in–the sooner the better (of course, I can always do post them if they are late). ArchPundit endorsements up in the early evening.