March 2004

Who Is Rod McCulloch?

McCulloch is a veteran Republican operative and pollster and that is why his actions don’t make sense as just your normal dirty trick. It seems likely that regardless of the veracity of the claims, his career working for Illinois Republican candidates is over. Then again, someone who might lie about such claims isn’t likely to be that smart anyway. But mostly, even the dumbest guy realizes Borling isn’t going anywhere.

McCulloch started as a pollster for Michael McKeon, but set up his own shop in 1986. He’s about 39 and the first mention of him in a big campaign is Al Salvi’s 1998 race to be Secretary of State. He also managed John Cox’s attempt in 2000 in the 10th CD. In one of the stranger elections, he ran a successful write-in campaign for Bensenville Mayor John Geils. He seems to have done some astroturfing with Geils to oppose O’Hare expansion and had been campaign manager to the ill-fated Thomas Jefferson Ramsdell race for comptroller in 2002.

He also did some polling for Pat Quinn’s ever present efforts to garner attention for, well PAT QUINN.

He seems to be most known for being the goto guy when a press member is on a deadline and needs a quote from a pollster. His other most notable incident was being heavily criticized by Steve Neal for a poll on O’Hare in 2001.

My friend Steve Neal unleashed a column [July 30] calling into question a recent poll conducted by my firm, McCulloch & Associates, regarding O’Hare expansion. Besides spelling my name correctly, the affable columnist got little else right. Curiously, Neal leveled criticism about my publishing favorable information for clients. To this I plead guilty. Neal well knows that pollsters, like columnists, are not hired to be negative about clients.

In one of his more noteworthy lapses in coherence, Neal totally mischaracterized the events relating to the 2000 10th District GOP primary. There were 11 candi- dates, not six. My candidate finished in the middle of the pack, not next to last. A poll that I conducted showing a close race was conducted one month before the primary, and not “days” before. There is nothing like a month and $5 million of advertising to change a poll’s numbers.

Neal called into question my poll of 922 suburban voters showing that 73 percent of these voters object to O’Hare expansion. He rebutted by repeating a Sun-Times poll indicating that 54 percent of “Chicago area” residents within a three-mile radius favored an additional runway. What gives?Neal is not intellectually honest when he gives the Sun-Times poll credence. Anyone familiar with polling, as Neal is, knows that polls of “voters” are more accurate than those of “residents.”

Further, for Neal to criticize me for releasing information favorable to clients is like being called ugly by a frog. Coincidentally, Neal’s column blasting my anti-expansion poll was placed next to an editorial piece praising expansion. In addition, the Sun-Times poll supporting expansion was paid for by, well, the Sun-Times, an advocate for expansion. Finally, the Midwest Aviation Coalition, a zealously pro-expansion group, paid for the “respected” Peter D. Hart poll.

Rod McCulloch, Loop

So not so much into the professional integrity thing, but in his defense, he is just an operative–not a pollster in terms of trying to find real numbers. Still nothing screams that he’d make this sort of thing up, and indeed, it would seem that he has plenty of interest in not doing so. That doesn’t mean he is not lying, it just means there isn’t an obvious reason to lie in this case–especially so elaborately and in a case where he has opened himself up to litigation. There is always the explanation that he is just dumb.

Ryan Internal Poll

Perhaps to distract everyone for a little bit, Ryan released an internal that shows:
From National Journal:

A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 3/8-10 for teacher/retired investment banker Jack Ryan (R); surveyed 525 likely GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.3% (release, 3/11). GOPers tested: Ryan, retired Air Force General John Borling (R), insurance exec. Norm Hill (R), telecomm co. CEO Chirinjeev Kathuria (R), paper co. pres. Andy McKenna Jr. (R), dairy co. owner Jim Oberweis (R), state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R), and ex-state Rep. Jonathan Wright (R).

IL SEN GOP Primary Matchup
Ryan 40%
Oberweis 14
Rauschenberger 8
McKenna 7
Other 2
Refused 3
Undec. 26

Ryan Rumors

Okay, please keep it out of comments. I won’t link to it, but go to the message boards at the Illinois Leader if you wish. I have no way of evaluating the content of the rumor and I won’t comment or allow it to stay on this site until someone gets something on record. Period. I don’t have the ability to do real time reporting and so I won’t provide a forum for character assassination without evidence.

What A Sense of Humor Will Do for You

In the Sun-Times backroom, why people like Rauschenberger is clear….

State Sen. Steve Rauschenberger has racked up a fair number of newspaper endorsements in his U.S. Senate bid — but the cash-strapped GOP Senate candidate is having a tough time capitalizing on the endorsements, which usually show up in television commercials.
“We’re hoping to run them on ham radio,” quipped Rauschenberger spokesman Charlie Stone.

That is the sort of cheekiness that runs throughout the operation

Borling Is Going Nuclear

Oddly appropriate for an Air Force General. It would appear he thinks he knows there is more to Jack Ryan’s divorce than we are being told. What is interesting is that the debate isn’t whether the son deserves privacy, but whether Ryan is being honest. Ryan is now in a pickle because fighting unspecific character charges doesn’t go away. It just makes people’s imagination go wild. If Ryan is telling the truth, Borling is commiting character assassination . If Ryan isn’t, don’t worry, it’ll come out by a 527 in the general election.

Let me be clear about comments. I will delete any comments that claim to know what Borling knows without specific documentation provided to me.