March 2004

Democratic Senate Nomination Cattle Call 3-15

1. Obama. Everything is breaking his way.

2. Hull. I’m guessing here, but I’m going to put his GOTV operation as a lot better than we expect.

3. Hynes. Good showing, but wrong election. Machine will turn out votes, but a very good candidate never provided a compelling reason for people to vote for him.

4. Pappas. Shut out of the race by money and everytime she got into the free media, something came up to take attention away.

5. Chico. Odd candidate out.

6. Skinner. Really, the new radio network is a perfect gig for you.

7. Washington. The great thing about victory parties, when you get destroyed you can drink all night.

Reader Contest: Predict the Results

So I’m going to use the same rules as Eric Zorn is going to use for bloggers:

Post your election predictions comments or send me an e-mail at archpundit@yahoo.com SUBJECT: Predictions

HOW TO PLAY: Predict the percentage, to the nearest whole number, that all 15 candidates in Republican and Democratic primaries will receive. Please list the candidates by party and in order of finish. For a tie-breaker, also predict the voter turnout in Illinois.

SCORING: You will lose one point for each percentage point by which you miss the actual percentage of the vote won by the candidate (for example, if you predict John Borling will get 3 percent and he gets 5 percent, you will lost two points). Failure to predict the correct winner will cost you an additional 15 points.

ELIGIBILITY: Read ArchPundit and not a blogger in the Eric Zorn Contest.

HOW TO ENTER: E-mail me or post in comments your predictions by midnight Monday, March 15th central time.

Prize: A giant no prize! But you get bragging rights.

Low Character? I Don’t Think So

Eric Zorn already covered this, but Rick Pearson suggest that the Senate Campaign suffers from candidates with low character. I couldn’t disagree more.

Oberweis’ character seems to be questionable. But let’s look at the others:

Obama. One of the finest public servants I’ve ever seen.

Hynes. Ditto

Hull. Perhaps a bit cocky to think he can jump into the Senate, but I don’t see any major character flaws. Some mistakes (as the two above have made), yes, but nothing other than human weaknesses.

Chico. Fine public servant.

Pappas. Again, a fantastic person.

Skinner. Nothing suggests she has low character.

Washington. Delusional perhaps, bad character no.

McKenna. Seems like a decent guy. Boring, but decent.

Rauschenberger–Pearson’s complaints appear to be that he said something stupid and he has ties to Chris Lauzen. Now, my feelings on Chris Lauzen are well known, but Rauschenberger is a decent guy.

Wright. Very decent. Perhaps too decent.

Kathuria. Self-promoter–does he go over the line? Maybe. I’m not sure it really matters at 1%.

Borling or Ryan. Well one of them has a problem and we don’t know which one it is. Borling is a special kind of bastard if he pushed this story and it isn’t true.

People’s warts should be shown in an election campaign, but putting them in perspective is critical. Few of us would want to be judged for our worst days in our lives. Most of these folks make up for it by being decent and honest most days. Playing politics within bounds isn’t some horrible character flaw. And this is a group that I have found to be especially inspiring with minor exceptions–and Jim Oberweis.

Oberweis Negative to the End

Oberweis has gone on the radio questioning Jack!’s honesty and is telling about a conversation they had in private.

We have no idea whether this is affecting the underlying structure of the vote and won’t until they are cast. But if you think this is tough, wait for the general election.

There are two basic interpretations to what is going on. One, Jack is naive enough to believe he can keep these records out the public domain and really believes that his son’s privacy is the important issue here. Two, there is something there.

The problem with one is that if he sticks to his guns, it just sits there hovering over the election. In a sad twist, if he is being a good parent, it could potentially hurt him more than if there is damaging information to release.

But as the lecture about what happens in campaigns continues, it is naive to think that public records that were sealed after a judge originally refused because it could be embarrassing politically aren’t fair game. And that statement from the judge alone is motivating the avid press interest in the issue. This is something that should have been dealt with when he started his campaign.

The analysis of this shouldn’t leave out that Oberweis is an opportunistic ass. Others, like Rauschenberger are probably serious in their concern. The jury is out on Borling. But the Republican Party in Illinois can’t deal with another scandal while the former Governor is on trial and former legislative leaders are threatened with indictments.