Edwards is the Winner of the ArchPundit Primary
ArchPundit
I waited for the exit polls and went with Edwards
February 2004
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ArchPundit Endorsement: Missouri Primary–Howard Edwards
For my Illinois readers I reserve the right to change before the Illinois primary.
My vote for the primay is undecided between John Edwards and Howard Dean and may stay that way until I get in the booth. I like the man who will fight for fiscal responsibility and actually makes a point of how Bush has screwed the states and ultimately the working poor through unfunded mandates and budget cuts. The Zogby worker was a bit confused when I mentinoed the state fiscal crisis as the second biggest issue. I then told her what he next pull down would be. I’m magic!
That said, Edwards has skillz. Great skillz and he is especially good with suburban women who we absolutely need to win in November. And he may be the last one with a shot against Kerry. I also appreciate his heartfelt discussion of race and class in America.
Kerry? Experienced, yes. A street fighter, yes. Able to connect to union workers who hunt? I’m not so sure. I hope I’m wrong and I’ll certainly back him over Bush if that is the choice. Ideologically I have few qualms and in some of the issues deepest to my heart concerning Central American policy, he was a persistent critic of our hypocrisy in the region. I’m concerned the press hates him as well and may turn him into Gore II. He has the nickname Liveshot for a reason.
Clark, I wanted him, but he got in too late, and well, Chris Lehane is a jackass. Lieberman–have you ever seen Bush argue he is the Republican Democrats like most? Okay then, bad strategy pal. Ideologically, you and me aren’t that far on many issues, but that was one bad campaign Joe. Go Joementum it back to the Senate. Kucinich==nutjob. Al==entertaining.
Predictions: A Healthy Kerry Win
I’ll cover the Missouri race at least and stay safe with a large Kerry win–around 50%, but Edwards coming in around 25% and Dean around 12%. The rest of the happy campers will come in behind. Clark’s campaign is DOA here and of course, in my liberal nabe, I got some Kucinich lit. Al won’t register above 1% though I think some city wards breakdowns will be interesting for him.
Blake Ashby on the Republican side will break 1% in U City, but nowhere else. Yo Blake–say hi the next time you are in chat and maybe I’ll say something nice!
Why is Kerry doing so well here? Hell if I know. Really. I think it might be the large number of undecideds once Gephardt dropped out and then he was the frontrunner. Given the state was silent until Wednesday, it seems momentum mattered here more than anywhere else.
Edwards is showing some strength here, but just hasn’t had time.
Kerry picked up four endorsements on Sunday, from the Post-Dispatch, the Kansas City Star, The Columbia Tribune and the Springfield News Leader.
You Want the Steenking Polls…
Kos has your fill for all of the states, no sense in me redoing the work
In Missouri, Kerry is overwhelmingly ahead, but Edwards is showing life. Dean is, well, waiting for next week.
Dean Event
How was the Dean Event at the Missouri Historical Museum on Friday. Crowded. But I can’t tell you anymore because after RSVPing and taking some time off work I didn’t get in. I thought that was the point of RSVPing. I would have been happy to hang out in the overflow room, but by the time I was turned away from the main room, it was overflowing. So I went home and took a nap.
Word is in comments, that Jeff Smith’s campaign was working the crowd, which I would expect given several volunteers and staff were in front of me in line. They had more patience. I’m old, what do you want?
Do I hold it against Howard? No. I’m not as petty as the national press corp can be. I was just tired.
Joe err….John Edwards at Blueberry Hill
So Wednesday was a hellacious day and why I’m still catching up. I had a funeral in Central Illinois early, happened to get back in time to get to Kerry’s event and then drove home and walked up to Blueberry Hill which was already packed by 7:15 for a 9:00 PM event.
The line was essentially from the Duck Room down the hallway next to the door, back up the hallway and stretched to the door. All to get in the Duck Room. Not everyone got in, but they cleared out the upstairs above for overflow and also had a lot of folks outside. Now, I think they counting was Million Man March counting, but there were a lot of people inside and outside. The staff, normally fast and friendly on a Wednesday night, was overwhelmed. Some of the reporters weren’t so used to it, but once I explained and once they got their burgers they were quite satisfied.
I met up there with Jeff Smith and a veritable A list of old Metropolis folks. I also got to meet Corey Mohn–though I was in the middle of dinner and beer and so our meeting was short. Jeff and Corey were both working the crowd by the end of the night. I finally made it back to the upstairs room and crowded around with a bunch of friends to listen over the speaker. Edwards was late as usual, but gave a hell of a speech. And it was a We speech versus Kerry’s I speech. We will do this, we will do that, we…
I prefer we. Also there was Joe Maxwell who gives a great introduction and is a hell of a speaker. After giving a great stump speech, Edwards came up to the upstairs crowd and gave a quick greeting.
Is he better than Clinton? Pretty damn close. As Virginia Postrel pointed out some months ago, the thing about trial lawyers is that people like them in person. That is why they win. He is a very personable, very positive and generally creates a very strong sense of goodwill.
What I did find interesting is that everyone has been talking about how he has run such a positive campaign. And it is true that he never attacks anyone directly, but he very effectively uses the amorphous others in his stump speech to draw sharp distinctions and criticize others without naming them.
Overall, he gives good stump.
The energy was higher, but then again so was the crowd with beer. At least I was.
Kerry Event
Pictures have to follow in this case. But it was packed.
People were standing in the stairs on the way down to the cafeteria at Saint Louis Community College at Forest Park. As usual at such events, everyone was late, but the crowd definitely had a buzz. I was standing next to the Cox news reporter who was talking to a bunch of folks. While there wasn’t a heavy love of Kerry there was an excitement about a frontrunner who many seemed to think would be a good candidate against Bush.
Going in the firefighters were working the doors on LaRouche patrol keeping signs and nutjobs out. Pretty lowkey, but amiable and laughing. They checked my notebook which seemed like a strange choice, but hey.
I was relaying the officials to the Cox reporter. An African-American gentleman I didn’t recognize was one of the first VIPs and might have been a St. Louis Clergy Coalition member. Jeremiah Jay was there with bells on and a big smile. Though I have to note he wasn’t as gregarious as when he endorsed Bradley four years ago at U City High.
Then the rest of the gang came out including Jean Carnahan who got the biggest reception. Tom Eagleton who deserved the biggest reception was gracious, but clearly his health is an issue with a voice that was giving. Others included a former Governor who was before my time in Missouri and so I forgot his name. The Mayor, while playing second fiddle to the former Senators, commanded the most attention while County Exec Charlie Dooley kind of stood on the sidelines.
Kerry’s speech was pretty much boilerplate, but clearly gave a good idea why he has turned into the frontrunner. It wasn’t the Kerry talking ad nauseum about policy details. It was a man who was passionate talking about why it matters. Especially effective was his discussion of first responders in thanking the IAFF for their support.
The key thing that I mentioned earlier was that it was an I speech. He was the action and he made you know it. It works for him and was natural. He was very relaxed and that was impressive.
What I noticed most though was a real eagerness for Democrats to see any candidate and the excitement was high. I haven’t seen it since before Mel Carnahan passed in this state.
Afterwards, he had a press availability and then a liveshot with news programs–appropriately so for a Senator known as "Liveshot" in Massachusetts.
I have strong reservations about Kerry being the antidote to Bush. I’m hoping I’m wrong given what looks like the current trajectory of the election. But he was the best I’ve seen him in years. It reminds me of the John Kerry who used to point out the hypocrisy in our Central and South American policy while taking on the intelligence community for keeping too many secrets simply because they were embarrassing.
Check out Edgelaw’s Version