he latest Rothenberg Political Report ratings are out. Here are exclusive excerpts provided to Political Wire:
The Senate: “While Senate control is in doubt, with Democrats most likely to win from 5 to 7 seats, we do not think the two sides have an equal chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Instead, we believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate.”
The House: “Going into the final days before the 2006 midterm elections, we believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible. This would put Democrats at between 237 and 243 seats, if not a handful more, giving them a majority in the next House that is slightly larger than the one the Republicans currently hold. If these numbers are generally correct, we would expect a period of GOP finger-pointing and self-flagellation after the elections, followed by a considerable number of Republican House retirements over the next two years.”
Governors: “With Republican seats like Idaho, Alaska, and Nevada in play for state-specific reasons, and Minnesota vulnerable to a Democratic wave, the ceiling for possible Democratic gains is high. We have narrowed our earlier projection from Democratic gains of 6-10 to 7-9.”
This is absurd. I will eat my computer if the Republicans lose 30 seats in the House and the safe money says they retain the Senate. John Kerry guaranteed at least 4 points across the board when he demeaned our fine men and women in uniform. But he’s been doing that for 35 years now.
Holy shit!
And I presume he wrote this before Taggert story broke and we got caught providing nuclear secrets to, well, everyone.
The only poll that matters is the one that ends at 7pm on Tuesday, Nov 7th.
Between now and Tuesday we all have to work to make these meaningless opinion pieces become reality.
Kerry was winning in 2004 til Rove kicked his action plan into high gear as a result of exit polling. We can do the reverse this time around.
Get thee to your local progressive candidates and volunteer!