Why Edgar Won’t Run

So this one has been running around my head for a while, though I’d now title it, ‘Why Edgar Might Not Run’.

Certainly the signs from Edgar are more positive than I thought they would be and others like Mike Lawrence seem ready to saddle up.

There are problems for Edgar that no one is really talking about. Pete Giangreco covered some of it in the now famous Capital Fax column, but he left out a couple issues that no one has touched yet.

MSI is obviously a big issue, but how much can a 10 year old issue really matter? Well, when your Deputy Chief of Staff is named an unindicted Co-Conspirator*

From the AP on August 23, 2000

Named as unindicted co-conspirators were former Edgar deputy chief of staff Michael Belletire; former Edgar personnel director Janis Cellini; James Owen, longtime assistant to Senate President James “Pate” Philip, R-Wood Dale; and Terry Bedgood and Terry Logsdon, who were MSI’s politically connected marketing consultants and shared in the millions reaped from MSI’s contract.

Now, the first point is that all of the people foaming at the mouth over Daley’s patronage chief–where’s the outrage at MSI? Pretty similar huh?

That said, I don’t think that means necessarily Edgar knew or was involved. Underlings often do things that they think the boss wants, but that actually horrifies the boss.

Pete took on the wrong issue in relation to crime and punishment. The scandal that few talk about today, is the abhorrent lack of control and order in the Illinios Prison System under Edgar’s Administration. The Speck videotape was the only real widespread public incident concerning an Illinois prison system that was largely run by gangs and out of control. It would truly be a shame if the spotlight on this issue weren’t shown in a 2006 race. While the tape was made in 1988 under Jim Thompsons administration and Edgar blamed the problems on what he inherited, few think the prisons really changed until after George Ryan became Governor. Of course, Ryan had a self-interest in a decent prison system.

Below the fold is a portion of a Kurt Erickson story on the problems in the prisons from late in 1996. That issue is one of the toughest Edgar could face in a fight with Blagojevich.

Add to that and the disaster that was DCFS as Giangreco pointed out and there is some new material to hit him that people don’t remember, but will be a lot harder to avoid discussing if he’s attacking Blagojevich’s ethics.

Furthermore, the problem of how to run on school funding is more complex than Giangreco portrayed. Long time readers know that I voted for Edgar in 1990 because Neil Hartigan was lying about school funding. I then voted in 1994 for Dawn Clark Netsch because Edgar was lying about school funding. And then Edgar turned around, repackaged Netsch’s school plan and tried to pass it.

But how does he run to the right and left of Blagojevich. Edgar can’t run too far to the right–his appeal is being a moderate. And running to the left on school funding and a tax swap has a small problem of, “Haven’t we heard that before”

Get out the flip flop costumes! Is he for a tax swap or against it? If he’s against it, who believes him after 1994?

If he’s for it, how does he placate his base? He’s socially moderate being pro-choice (except about beer tents at the fair), generally supportive of gay and lesbian rights and isn’t likely to join a jihad against gay marriage. So why would conservatives vote for him? Taxes. But what if Blagojevich has staked out the anti-tax position and Edgar takes what I view to be the responsible position for a tax swap. Doesn’t he lose his right flank? Sure the Chamber will still support him, but do the social conservatives who are becoming ascendant in the State GOP?

Some might argue it’s a Hartigan-Edgar race all over again, but with the increasingly blue nature of the state, does that necessarily mean an Edgar win this time? I’m not sure though Blagojevich’s current poll numbers might mean that Edgar would win.

The impact of these issues aren’t only going to exist in the general election. Edgar faced two primary challenges when he ran for Governor by Steve Baer and Jack Roeser. Neither gained much traction, but both candidacies helped form a foundation for social conservatives in the Illinois GOP that had long been dominated by moderates.

Some of the current candidates will drop out if Edgar runs. Judy will jump out of the way. I imagine Gidwitz will, though he’s irrelevant enough to not matter anyway. I think Brady will get out–he’s made suggestions he might. Rauschenberger insists he is in, but one has to wonder if he won’t be able to be moved to a ‘dream team’ slot as Treasurer nominee to run with Edgar as a slate. O’Malley may run, but he’s increasingly marginalized within his own party.

Essentially that leaves either Oberweis or perhaps Oberweis and Rauschenberger to run against Edgar in a bruising primary. In past years, Baer and Roeser couldn’t get press to save their lives, but it would be different this time with Oberweis able to get plenty of press with constant attacks on Edgar.

Oberweis and his allies at Family Taxpayer Network will attack him relentlessly over abortion, immigration, gay and lesbian rights, MSI, and DCFS all the while Blagojevich piles on while Edgar is too busy to attack Blagojevich.

I think Edgar wins that primary by about 5 points and wins a general election by 2-3. But does he want that nightmare of a campaign? Does he want that to define his legacy?

* I believe this is the first time I’ve used the word not tied to Costello

Kurt Ericson and Tony Parker in the Pantagraph December 19, 1996

Meanwhile, state corrections spokesman Nic Howell on Wednesday said Gilmore did nothing improper or unusual when he had a memorandum distributed to inmates explaining the search about 45 minutes before it began Tuesday morning.

“The idea is to help employees do their jobs,” Howell said.

“The point is these people (condemned inmates) are adults and you want their cooperation, so you notify them and treat them like adults. ”

Howell said it is not uncommon for administrators to give inmates advance notice of “spring cleaning” searches, but no notice is given of searches stemming from serious incidents or intelligence information. The practice has been in place for years and is used at prisons throughout the state, he said.

Since last summer, Edgar’s administration has been battling complaints by prison guards and Republican lawmakers about coddling gang leaders at Pontiac and the state’s two other maximum-security prisons.

The department has initiated its own internal review seeking to address the complaints, and House Democratic Leader Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, recently said he would form a bipartisan panel to investigate the Department of Corrections.

Meanwhile, a union leader said Howell’s explanation of the reasons behind Tuesday’s memo lacks common sense.

“That’s really a ridiculous thing to say given all the staff that have been assaulted with weapons,” said Sgt. Danny Jarrett, president of American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Local 494. “It’s like pulling a drug raid on a crack house. Are we going to call 45 minutes ahead of time and say we’re coming over to shake your house down? ”

Prison spokesman Gary Vilsoet said two homemade knives and a single razor blade were found Tuesday during a one-day search of cells and common areas in the unit. One homemade knife was found in a garbage bag containing items discarded from cells, but Vilsoet said he did not know where the other weapons were located.

Jarrett said the number of weapons found is unusually low for condemned unit searches and the fact one was located in garbage indicates the advance warning gave prisoners an opportunity to discard contraband.

Howell said routine search notification to inmates does not decrease the chance of finding dangerous contraband and has not been an issue at other facilities.

“Even though he (Jarrett) understands things, he wants to misrepresent it for his own reasons,” Howell said. “It has always been a very acerbic relationship between Jarrett and the administration there. Frankly it makes sense to everybody else but Mr. Jarrett. ”

Jarrett, who has been president of the union local representing Pontiac prison employees for eight years, said notice allows inmates to flush drugs down their toilets, place knives in more secure hiding places or discard contraband items in garbage or a tunnel system that runs behind cells.

“Nic Howell is about as much of a fraud as that guy we have who is warden. How would he know? ” Jarrett said. “I’ve worked in there, I don’t think Nic Howell or Gilmore have ever worked a cell house or a shakedown. ”

Notifying inmates of a search doesn’t make guards’ jobs easier or speed up the process, he said.

“Where’s common sense in this? ” Jarrett asked. “Maybe the reason they didn’t catch the Speck tapes for eight years or the dope and money is because they gave them advance notice. “