Maria Pappas’s impending entry to the Illinois Senate race for the dem nomination is nothing but bad news for Hynes. One of Hynes’s remaining strengths was name recognition. The reason candidates work so hard to get name recognition as well as inform voters of their stands on the issues is that they are going for both the reflexive and the informed voters. On election day, a certain number of voters simply vote the name they know. Dick Mell loves to say that the reason Vallas did so well and almost beat his son-in-law for guv is that Vallas had more media hits in Chicago in the three years prior to the election than any other political leader, including the Mayor (which Mell says with relish).
Hynes, up until now, had the name recognition advantage, with Obama a close second, and Hull closing fast. Now with Pappas in, this wipes out Hynes’s name recognition advantage in Cook County and does serious damage everywhere else. In this one category alone, she will, likely, out poll Hynes in Cook County and in the collar counties, which puts Hynes Obama, and Hull on equal footing in the name game.
(Now let’s be clear, a baton twirling, beloved-dog carrying politician with a pheromone peddler as a campaign chair will, at least, provide comic releif, and I think that Pappas would be appalled, if she actually wins. What she wants, I think, is good positioning to run for Cook County Board President. But she also told an aldermanic powerhouse: "anyone but the kid.")
Money now becomes even more a factor. Rumors were circulating that Hull was re-thinking this race in light of recent polls. Nope. To counter them, he just plunked another $4 million into his hopper. Both Hull and Obama continue to play it smart against Hynes: build name recognition, educate voters, get a GOTV operation in place, and build a winning coalition. Both recognize that a portion of almost every voting block in every region is up for grabs. But what Hull has that the other don’t is a very deep pocket to go after them all well. If this race comes down to who can cobble together a winning coalition, I think that this race will come down to Obama and Hull. Just a prediction.
It’s been fun…although I wish that I had figured out how to create links and use other parts of this infernal Blog Studio better.