Senate: Dems pick up a minimum of 8 seats. I’m betting on 10 only because toss ups tend to flip one way in the end (see Charlie Cook’s most recent analysis on this). 7 seems solid to me and then one more is likely to fall given past history. McConnell probably hangs on. Bill O’Reilly’s head explodes though and goes on a rampage.
House: This is hard to say because of the individual dynamics so I’ll say a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 30 seats with more of a likelihood of being around 23 or so. Democrats will lose a seat unlike last cycle with at least Mahoney going down in Florida and Lampson in Texas. Bachman loses, Murtha survives. Madia in Minnesota loses. Judy Baker in MO-9 pulls out a squeaker and wins. Chris Shays loses giving Democrats complete dominance in New England in the House.