Ouch. The good news from the Southtown Poll appeared to be that Jack! had caught up with the President and had roughly the same number of hardcore supporters in his camp. The Trib poll calls that into question.
A Harstad Strategic Research (D) poll obtained by Hotline; conducted 3/25-31 for state Sen. Barack Obama (D); surveyed 806 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (Hotline sources, 4/8). Tested: Obama and teacher/ex-investment banker Jack Ryan (R).
General Election Matchup
Obama Vote 52% Fav/Unfav 45/9% 73%ID
Ryan Vote 33% Fav/Unfav 31 /20% 84%ID
Undecided 14%
Wilson Research Strategies Released 5/04-5/05.
Obama 44%
Ryan 28%
Undecided 18%
Southtown
Released May 18th
Obama 48
Ryan 40
+/- 4.5
Sample Size 500
Automated phone call poll
95% confidence interval
Obama 52 %
Ryan 30
It’s always bad to have your opponent over 50 because it means you have to take voters away. Right now, Ryan doesn’t appear to even have his base cemented and more numbers in the article point out his problems.
Of voters who consider themselves independent, a key portion of the electorate for both candidates, nearly one in four had an unfavorable opinion of Ryan while only 29 percent had a favorable view of him. Obama led Ryan among independents 46 percent to 27 percent. Even Republicans were unsure about their candidate, with a third of GOP voters saying they have yet to form an opinion about Ryan. Only 19 percent of Democrats had not yet formed an opinion about Obama.
Ryan has a real problem if he isn’t reach his core supporters. He has to lock them up before he can hope for the median voter–who right now is saying they’ll already vote for Obama.
Worse, Ryan is running as closely allied to George Bush and, well, George Bush’s number suck less, but not by much.
Ryan can’t get on message and he is running essentially a negative campaign at this point–he doesn’t have much of a choice when his opponent is above 50 though. But negative campaigns work because they depress your opponent’s voters turnout more than yours–right now, Ryan doesn’t have the base to make that work.
Can Jack Ryan win? Sure. How likely is that? Not very to put it mildly.
To sum up, since election day, three polls put him around 1/3 of voters or slightly less. One poll puts him around 40.
And his divorce files haven’t been released yet.
See, this proves the fundies are right and divorce is an evil, evil thing. Can you imagine where Jack!’s polling numbers would be if all his campaign literature featured him with his (now ex, alas) wife, with the slogan “Vote Ryan: Resistance is Futile”? 🙂
Vote Libertarian Jerry Kohn for US Senate. 😉 Where are his results in the polls? Yeah, I know. 30% who consider themselves “very conservative” said they were leaning toward Obama. That seems like a strong case to include Kohn in the debates. I bet if someone did a poll more than 80% would agree all candidates on the ballot should be included in the debates. We’ll see what type of democracy Obama actually believes in. Kohn is just as qualified as Ryan. Ryan’s never held office, while Kohn is an elected Library Trustee in Cook County. Ryan is pushing his minimal teaching experience, while Kohn has taught in public schools for years and years longer than Ryan. If that many people dislike Ryan, the voters would probably appreciate hearing about other choices. That used to be the American way.
You have noticed
John Kerry
Jerry Kohn
haven’t you?
Just found it amusing.
Jack Ryan has better name ID than Barak Obama? What’s with that? Maybe they are confusing him with other Ryans?
The train has pulled out of this station.