Despite the desperate claims of Big Tent Democrat, the polling shows virtually no difference between Obama and Clinton against McCain in regard to white voters who are lower income, there isn’t any evidence that there is a problem for Obama any more than there is for Clinton.
From the Diago/Hotline poll:
White Voters
McCain 51%
Clinton 40 %
McCain 51%
Obama 38 %
Under $30,000 year voters
McCain: 37 %
Obama 50 %
McCain 37 %
Clinton 55 %
Women
McCain 37 %
Obama 51 %
McCain 37 %
Cllinton 52 %
So the only real difference is Obama does slightly worse with those under $30,000 in a general election match-up, but then actually does slightly better than Clinton in the 30-50 K bracket.
The reality based community understands several things that BTD doesn’t:
- Demographic blocs in primaries don’t translate into demographic blocs in general elections
- The people who actually vote in Democratic primaries overwhelmingly vote Democratic in the general election
- Obama does just as well in most categories in a general election match ups and better in other categories to the point that as of right now, there is very little difference in general election match-ups. Overall, the differences amongst these groups in a general election match up is very small so the notion that this is a great weakness for Obama is a simply a fiction.
- Just as Clinton would have to shore up some voters, Obama needs to shore up some voters, but the polling to date indicates only small differences based on gender, income, and race.
Trying to portray preferences in the primary as evidence for a weakness in the general when general election polls show little difference indicates there is someone with a problem with reality, it’s just not who BTD thinks it is.
It’s not a race or class or gender problem when looked at from a macro view, but on a micro view — at the geographic level — the effect does become pronounced.
Not to pick on Appalachia, but as many have noted it is in that region of America where this effect is most stark… And WV is smack in the middle.
I find BTD tedious in general, but he has become insufferable as the primary has worn on. The most outrageous claim he makes is that he’s an Obama supporter! I mean, I can accept that even a supporter should offer criticism now and again, but supporters occasionally throw in some words of, you know, support.