Everyone looks at the Governor’s poll numbers and insist he is going to lose. He’s certainly vulnerable, but the playbook is right out of the Gray Davis reelection campaign and while not very popular, Davis suffered from some of the same problems Blagojevich does with big money donors receiving favorable treatment. Yet Davis won.
His numbers recovered slightly over the next year, peaking again in July 2002, this time with 41% approval, 49% disapproval
On top of it, Davis started attacking early, though Blagojevich didn’t quite go as far. Davis started attacking in the primary to avoid the moderate candidate–imagine if Blagojevich had been bold enough to go after Judy in the primary so he would draw Oberweis. Man, that would have been good blogging.
Frankly, Blagojevich is far warmer than Davis and Judy’s non-campaign is only helping him set the terms of the campaign cycle. In a Blue State, in a Blue year, she’s missing her chance.