Playing hardball is often good politics. Peter Fitzgerald certainly enjoys the game and seems to truly believe that in every argument he is on the side of angels. Add that to strong grassroots support by social conservatives and he is the sort of person Shrub needs to cultivate. Conservatives hated Bush the Elder precisely because he didn’t give his due to true believers. However, that sort of cultivation has to eventually be squared with Congressional Politics. Bush needs Denny Hastert more than he needs Peter Fitzgerald and Denny Hastert is no friend of Peter Fitzgerald.
A particularly telling story of the regard they hold Hastert in is the revealed in The Hill from last month. Hastert became very upset over the denial of a loan to United and the implication is this was the final straw for O’Neil.
How does this relate to Fitzgerald? O’Hare is the economic engine of Chicago and as such the state. Expanding O’Hare is one of the most important public works projects the state faces in the next several years. Peter Fitzgerald opposes O’Hare expansion because some of his base is from directly around the airport and they, understandably, want to see their communities remain intact. On the other hand, Hastert’s base is a bit farther out and northwest of O’Hare and their primary concern is getting into O’Hare without fighting traffic. To address those concerns a new western entrance is planned. With that entrance, Hastert sees O’Hare expansion as a no-brainer.
The Governor and nearly every significant state official including the incoming ones have signed off on expansion so expansion would be on the way, except one person is holding it up. Peter Fitzgerald is promising to filibuster any attempt to expand O’Hare. This doesn’t make Hastert happy because it doesn’t make the corporate chieftans in the City of Chicago happy and the provide a whole bunch of money to the Republican Party.
Something has to give. Either O’Hare expansion goes forward and Fitzgerald is rolled, or O’Hare expansion is delayed and Hastert goes into a further pique. If that happens, the White House could easily be facing a fight between Hastert and Fitzgerald in the Senate Republican primary. Andrew McKenna has been making noises about running and a close ally of Hastert, Ray Lahood, has already suggested a primary opponent might be necessary. Anyone who thinks that the exceedingly level-headed LaHood dropped that bomb without tacit approval from this friend.
Which way does the White House do better? Neither really. The supporters in Illinois of Fitzgerald are true believers. Taking on their favored son isn’t likely to do the White House well. Getting Hastert mad and having a divisive primary battle that highlights the split between the social and fiscal conservatives doesn’t do the White House a lot of good either. In fact, if the fiscal conservatives are successful, the social conservatives could simply sit out the next election which is exactly what Rove is trying to avoid.