It was God, Guns and Gays. Every number I’m looking at shows what appears to be an increase in Republican base turnout and that is largely due to abortion and gay marriage. Karl Rove’s strategy to bring out the evangelicals who didn’t vote in 2000 worked. Democratic turnout seems to be up as well, just as not up as much. Ohio’s vote to ban gay marriage probably won this by pulling out evangelical voters.
The House numbers aren’t bad—in fact the difference is that of the Texas redistricting and besides Florida, the losses of Democratic seats were in places that 2 years ago I predicted losing or came open surprisingly and we shouldn’t have had a shot at. The generic ballot did move towards Republicans at the end, but ultimately, it looks like the wave didn’t exist, but instead was decided by local trends and demographics.
That Democrats lost in Georgia Oklahoma, Alaska, South Caroline and even North Carolina shouldn’t be too surprising. That we won in Colorado is a good sign as is the showing in Kentucky. Florida suffered from high evangelical turnout for Bush and Jeb Bush’s handling of the hurricanes which gave him 70% approval. In a close election, that was the difference. Two years ago this was sure to be a bad cycle and it looked like Dems had lucked into some quality challengers, but the geography beat the Democrats.
Akaka (D- HI) Safe Dem even with retirement
Allen, George – (R – VA) Safe Republican
Bingaman, Jeff – (D – NM) Safe Dem–Bingaman got in the mid 60s last time around
Burns, Conrad – (R – MT) Safe Republican
Byrd, Robert – (D – WV) probable retirement–toss up/lean Republican/safe if he stays.
Cantwell, Maria – (D – WA) Safe Dem
Carper, Thomas – (D – DE) Safe Dem
Chafee, Lincoln – (R – RI) Too much to think about
Clinton, Hillary – (D – NY) Safe Dem. Weld or Guiliani can’t run in New York with the current President
Conrad, Kent – (D – ND) Safe Dem as Dorgan is.
Corzine, Jon – (D – NJ) Safe Dem
Dayton, Mark – (D – MN) Tough Fight. Not a great campaigner, but deep pockets probably Dem
DeWine, Mike – (R – OH) Safe Republican
Ensign, John – (R – NV) Safe Rep unless Yucca Mtn. gains salience.
Feinstein, Dianne – (D – CA) Safe Dem
Frist, Bill – (R – TN) Retiring-likely Republican
Hatch, Orrin – (R – UT) Safe Republican
Hutchison, Kay – (R – TX) Safe Republican
Jeffords, James – (I – VT) Safe Dem or I
Kennedy, Edward – (D – MA) Safe Dem even with retirement
Kohl, Herb – (D – WI) Safe Dem
Kyl, Jon – (R – AZ) Safe Rep
Lieberman, Joseph – (D – CT) Safe Dem
Lott, Trent – (R – MS) Safe Rep
Lugar, Richard – (R – IN) Safe Rep
Nelson, Bill – (D – FL) lean Dem
Nelson, Ben – (D – NE) tossup. Could always change parties.
Santorum, Rick – (R – PA) If Dems ever properly run against him, could be a tight race.
Sarbanes, Paul – (D – MD) Safe Dem
Snowe, Olympia – (R – ME) Safe Rep usually. If Dems have few in play, they may go after her.
Stabenow, Debbie – (D – MI) Safe Dem
Talent, James – (R – MO) Quality Challenger could produce a tight race, but R Lean
Thomas, Craig – (R – WY) Safe Republican
Off the bat, one Dem loss with slightly more vulnerabilities, but with only a few races really in play, this could turn a few races hot. Florida, Nebraska, West Virginia may be the biggest races–all current Democrats. Minnesota, Missouri and Pennsylvania have potential to be hot with two being Republican holdings. Maine and Rhode Island have potential, but Chaffee and Snowe are popular moderates. Dems will have to paint them as tied to Bush in those states. Or get Lincoln to switch.
So, the next cycle is tough too. But this cycle isn’t as bad as many are moaning about today. For President, the Republicans have to find someone who excites the evangelical base as much as Bush, but doesn’t scare moderates. That is a tough sell and where the President is especially gifted as a politician. Much like Clinton infuriated Republicans, Bush has an uncanny ability to be speak to two crowds with the same words. The only way he won this was by that skill. There are few with those skills.
Why do you consider MI safe Dem? Stabenow barely won in 2000 and Mike Rogers or Candice Miller could beat her.
George Allen could be beaten by Mark Warner, quite easily.
Beating an incumbent in a state that is trending slowly Dem is pretty hard to do. Debbie has strong union support and should be safe. She’ll pull in Levin like numbers next cycle.
George Allen is quite conservative, but comes off as middle of the road. Adding to it his father’s legacy, Warner, if he gets in, might beat him, but the demographics are in Allen’s favor.
I really think Harold Ford, Jr., could have a shot in TN. He has solid moderate credentials as a blue dog leader and a former challenger to Pelosi for the speaker position. Moreover, Brehedson is going to have huge coattails and word is the campaigns are coordinating. Meanwhile, Republicans are looking to nominate a winger…its definitely a dem possiblity.
One thing to keep in mind is that I’m looking at them generically, but you are right in Tennessee.
Corzine may very well not run again and instead run for Governor. The seat would still lean D, but it would be competetive.
Likewise, Feinstein is likely not to run again, though I doubt any Republican moderate enough to be competetive (let alone to take on the formidable presumptive D nominee, Loretta Sanchez) will make it through the Republican primary. Remember, this is the party that had an easy chance to blow Davis out of the water with Riordan but instead went with the terrible Bill Simon, who still lost by only 5 or so points. Schwarzennegger would make it highly competetive but even he would only make it a tossup assuming Sanchez gets the nomination. If she is beaten by a more liberal candidate like Gavin Newsome Schwarzenegger would probably win but a more radical conservative would lose.
The New Jersey Republicans have the same problem the Illinois Republicans have–in fact Pascoe was part of Schundler’s team.
Good point about NJ, I’m not all that familiar with its politics I’m afraid.
Also, apparently Kyl said he would probably serve no more than two terms in 1994. Might he not run again to take on Napolitano? Also, he has never really had a proper opponent (in 2000 he was unnopposed and 94 was 94). Still, this seat still leans heavily R.
That could be–the good thing about putting this up here, I’m having to think about it. 😉
Isn’t Napolitano up for reelection that year?I’d imagine she’d go for two, but certainly Arizona is a winnable state.
One final note, an increasingly conservative and powerful Republican Senate delegation might push Snowe and Chafee to either leave their party or relinquish their seats. If that doesn’t happen I wouldn’t be suprised if the club for growth targets one or both of them, though I doubt that would be effective.
Cantwell won’t get a free ride either by the way though she certainly is heavily favored.
Dayton has said he won’t spend his own money again.
Will Jeffords run again? If not, then Dean?
Ben Nelson is at least a lean D, given that this is a midtermn and given his past winning percentages…
Who would run against Santorum? Its a bit early for Ed Rendell isn’t it? Could Terry Kerry or one of the Heinz children run? They have the money and the reputation in PA….
Napolitano is up for reelection in 2006, indeed she and Kyl could very well switch places though I doubt she’ll go for it since she may have presidential ambitions…
Barbara Hafer, the former moderate Republican who switched parties (she’s the PA treasurer) is likely to run against Santorum. She could win.
AZ is moving more and more to the right and I’m not sure anyone could win there. Even Napolitano may lose when she runs for governor again.
ArchPundit, given that Granholm barely won against a horrible candidate in ’02, and Kerry barely won MI this year, do you really think that Stabenow will be safe? Already the MIGOP have begun viciously attacking her and Granholm, day in and day out.
Dayton had better spend his own moeny if he wants to get reelected. He’s going ot be in for the fight of his life.
Jeffords will probably run again. I think Feinstein will as well.
Most evidence is pointing towards Arizone becoming more moderate. Remember much of the conservatism there is libertarian based and that includes social issues and lots of new Latino voters. I think Dems are still at a disadvantage in the state, but it’s getting better.
Michigan is a lean Democratic state and it’s pretty moderate—Granholm and Stabenow should be safe if Michigan stayed Dem with the onslaught of evangelicals in a Presidential year.
Dayton is in a similar position, plus I’m not sure who takes him on.