Obama/Ryan Analysis

A site I check in on every once in a while is Russ Stewart’s. He does a weekly column on Chicago/Illinois politics–not quite a blog, not quite a regular news column. But one that caught my attention (and was mentioned in comments) was his column on the Obama/Ryan race.

The key graphs to me reflect the demographic changes that Illinois is undergoing in relation to Republican voters:

What is a detriment, however, is the stupor of Illinois’ Republican voters. Republican turnout has declined appreciably. In 1996, when conservative insurgent Salvi upset the party-endorsed “establishment” candidate, Lieutenant Governor Bob Kustra, the primary turnout was 791,645. In 1998, when conservative insurgent Fitzgerald upset the “establishment” candidate, Comptroller Loleta Didrickson, the turnout was 719,522. In 2002, when “establishment” candidate Jim Durkin beat Jim Oberweis and anti-abortion conservative John Cox, the turnout was 825,231.

This year turnout in the Senate primary dropped to 638,502, which is 186,729 less than in 2002, 81,020 less than in 1998 and 153,143 less than in 1996.

Most troubling for the Republicans and Ryan is the fact that from 2002 to 2004, turnout dropped by more than 48,000 in Cook County, 45,000 in DuPage County, 27,000 in Lake County, 29,000 in Kane County, 13,000 in Will County and 146,000 Downstate. The only Collar County where Republican turnout was stable was in McHenry, where turnout declined from 30,636 to 28,758.

It is a bad thing to be a one-party state. While the Speaker is holding the Governor’s feet to the fire over the budget a realistic opposition is better at holding the ruling party from excess. This is why, as in the last post, I mention Republicans who are approaching issues seriously–Illinois needs them–not in the majority mind you, but as a serious opposition party. Right now, with the Republican lurch to the right, that is increasingly a problem. Cross is a moderate, but more and more Leader types are influencing the Party to the right in a moderate state. There is a malaise in the Republican Party and they need a renewal based on the median voter, not purity of thought.