Obama (D) 50%
Ryan (R) 39%
Other/Undecided 10%
Data Collected 6/7/04 – 6/9/04
Geography State of Illinois
Sample Population 736 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 3.7%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago
KSDK-TV St. Louis
The significant differences are on Jack’s numbers which are changing between polls. My guess on this is the method to determine likely voters or how hard they push people to make a choice is the key difference–IOW light leaners probably account for his better numbers. This early I tend to think such voters aren’t good to include, but it’s impossible to tell without further information. While Jack!’s e-mail is crowing about this, they are facing a non-incumbent at 50% or better. Behind the press releases that has to have them worried.
Survey USA are automated polls.
Amy, here’s your medication. There, you feel better now, don’t you.
Any campaign that is “crowing” about being 11 points down is so incredibly screwed that Jesus and a team of 12 electricians couldn’t unscrew it.
before writing this one off, wasn’t Survey USA the only poll in the week before the primary that was dead on with Obama’s 30 point lead?
I’m not writing it off. I am guessing that it is in the ballpark–in fact putting Obama at 50 is nearly identical to what the other polls are showing. THe issue is what is the difference between the polling data and it appears to me to probably be likely voter scenarios.
link