And to be very clear given where I’m linking–it’s a surprise because it doesn’t fit the expected trend line
For those not familiar with such graphs, make sure you get accustomed to the range it’s operating upon.
Charles is going to add more, but my take on it is that if these three are representative of reality, the drop in approval dropped faster, but I don’t have a particular event that would have caused that to happen in my mind. Perhaps the criticism from retired generals, but I’m not sure that would be a large enough event for the general public. Perhaps the gas prices start to hit him harder given the continue to rise. I’m not sure, but it’s an interesting note that the three most recent deviate more than what was predicted from the past lines.
I found the analysis that presidential approval is tied to gas prices somewhat persuasive. See Jerome Armstrong referring to Professor Pollkatz.