From Greenwire:
The incoming chairmen of the Senate Budget and Energy committees said Tuesday they may try to move Arctic National Wildlife Refuge drilling provisions early next year as part of the FY ’04 budget reconciliation bill. If pursued, the strategy means Republicans could circumvent Democratic filibuster threats to open the Alaskan refuge with only 51 votes, as opposed to having to muster the 60 votes necessary to overcome a filibuster.
Because reconciliation bills cannot be filibustered, and because Senate Democrats have guaranteed to block ANWR, attaching an Alaska drilling provision to the reconciliation bill appears to have emerged as the ideal strategy for Republicans who have long been frustrated by procedural tactics in the Senate. ANWR passed Congress in 1995 as part of reconciliation only to be vetoed by then-President Clinton. But this time around, President Bush eagerly awaits the domestic policy victory he could ultimately claim if ANWR passes the Republican-controlled Congress.If Republicans choose to roll ANWR into a reconciliation package, the primary obstacle standing in the way is the Senate parliamentarian, who has to rule in favor of including ANWR as "a substantial revenue measure," according to a Senate rule called the Byrd Rule that limits how policy gets included in reconciliation bills. If the parliamentarian rules against ANWR, the Senate needs 60 votes to bypass the Byrd Rule, but all indications point to ANWR passing the test, as it did in 1995, because of the billions of dollars in federal oil royalties the refuge would potentially net.
The question is are there 50 votes + Cheney. I don’t think they do. Reconciliation bills can be amended.
Democrats voting for ANWR
Miller
Akaka
Inouye
Landreau
Breaux
Republicans voting No
Smith-NH
Smith OR
Snowe
Collins
Chafee
Dewine
Fitzgerald
McCain
The vote was 54-46
Now, we lose three votes clearly:
Carnahan
Smith-NH
Cleland
Gain 1
Pryor
Leaving us at 50-49 against drilling.
Coleman has claimed to be opposed to drilling. Or will he flop? Terrel-Landreau is irrelevant because they are both for drilling.
One possibility is it gets stuck back in a conference committee and then he votes ‘to move the budget forward’ like a weasel. But on the face of it, and if Norm keeps his promise, ANWR drilling doesn’t pass.