The thing about a Meeks candidacy is how it alters the landscape regarding black voters. The assumption, pre-big scandals (when hasn’t there been a little scandal in Chicago) was that part of the reason Daley was invulnerable was a weird position he staked out where he occupied a middle space ideologically. The white ethnics weren’t always happy–especially in the police department, but there is no way to run and win from that side of the electorate. African-Americans voted more and more for Daley giving him a majority of his votes last cycle. Daley accomplished this by targeting African-American ministers in faith based initiatives aimed at their neighborhoods. He had picked off most Latinos in previous elections.
Meeks obviously has the clout with African-American ministers to make inroads relatively easily. He can use the rallying cry from the corruption with minority contracts going to mysteriously pale men.
Leaving the swing vote of Latinos to fight over in the election. The problem here for Meeks is that he would likely have Gutierrez or another Latino jump to hope to split the difference. This far out, it’s hard to imagine that Daley wouldn’t win because he’d be able to hold on to enough of the African-American and Latino vote to go with his base.
The problem for him comes if there is a fourth credible candidate who can take white voters other than lakefront liberals (who are now dispersed throughout the city). I just don’t see that other white candidate emerging. Meeks is an improvement over Jackson Jr. who by my take would simply be another guy with different friends to put into patronage positions, but probably couldn’t run the city very well.
The question then comes down to does Daley want to fight for another term given all the work and time it would take.
My answer: It’s Hizzoner’s city.
Hat Tip To Rich