Or will he have legs after some initial success? Dean’s blog points towards an LA Times article that suggests he might be ahead of the curve due to his electronic organization.">article that suggests he might be ahead of the curve due to his electronic organization.
One has to wonder whether Dean has taken Carter’s strategy and had it updated for 2004. So far, the campaign is an impressive organization of openness and close contact with supporters instead of having the media act as the prime contact. It performs well with Kerry and others fighting media sniping contests from Drudge and the others.
The challenge is reaching voters not connected and my understanding is that his organizing in Iowa is going relatively well. The problem is that he won’t get labor in Iowa and so he won’t have the foot soldiers to win. He doesn’t seem to be attempting for a clear win there though and so his strategy might do well enough.
Dean’s Iowa campaign needs to be closest to Bradley’s. Bradley relied on the liberal goo goos of Iowa and college towns to provide a counterweight against the organization and labor support Gore got. Dean has three advantages Bradley did not.
First, Iowa’s vote will be split in several directions. Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards will all get some support there and to do well won’t require as much as against the siting Vice-President. Gore cornered nearly all of the organization people and put Bradley in a hole. Bradley did very well in a caucus where he did not have a major union behind him. This year at least two campaigns will split labor.
Two, the process is going to be different with several states in-line after New Hampshire and while Iowa and New Hampshire are still important, they will be less important. Not winning the first two won’t have the effect it had on Bradley as long as Dean does well.
Third, Bradley spent too much time in Iowa, but he had no choice given he was the only other candidate. With a crowded field, the press won’t kill Dean if he spends less time in Iowa.
Of course, if Kerry is adopting the Gore Strategy we can expect to see a variety of stupid tricks such as the walking corn cob and disruption of rallies.