A good portion was spent following teabaggers around Saint Louis which was far more active than in Illinois–until the other day at least.

I do think Democrats will lose House seats in 2010–it’s both an off year election and the Dems have a lot of seats in marginal districts.  How bad it will be largely depends on whether health care passes and the state of the overall economy and especially job growth.  While many are comparing it to 1994, I see it far more like 1982 which I’ll explore more later.  Ultimately, 1994 was about marginally higher Republican turnout compared to marginally lower Democratic turnout.  It’s a very different world from 1994 though with significant demographic shifts and especially in Illinois, that will have an impact on how deep the change is.  Additionally, in 1994, the GOTV operations weren’t nearly as good as they are now.  Voters are highly identified and the targeting is far more effective.  If health care doesn’t pass with what most Democrats see as a strong bill, that may not matter for Democrats–Dem voters may just not show up. Again, more on that later.

On top of following teabaggers around locally, the start of 1st grade for my daughters, 2 sinus infections, and very busy time at work and I just didn’t have time to post much.

Oh, and this:

From phenom to felon

I once held a position of public trust. I write today as a felon, having broken that trust, and I don’t want anyone to make the terrible mistakes I made.

I thought I could get away with it. If anyone learned of what happened, it would be my word and the word of my friends and staffers against that of a loner with a shady past.

It was easy to think this way. I had arrived on the political scene.

When I decided to run for Congress in 2004, I was a nobody. It was a familiar role. As a boy I was the smallest kid on the court, scrappy and hypercompetitive, and I tried to overcome my political weaknesses with the same drive. Eventually I went from a non-entity to a contender.

As Election Day drew near, I authorized a close friend and two aides to help an outside consultant send out a mailer about my opponent but without disclosing my campaign’s connection.

Fiercely competitive, I was seeking any advantage I could get. I knew that hiding my campaign’s involvement was against the law. I was raised better than that, but I thought the ends justified the means. I was stupid and wrong.

Yes, he was. He’s also my friend. He’ll have to pay for his crime now.  It’s hard to watch the entire thing unfold.  Jeff had a very promising political career and as always, the cover-up was far worse than the initial act.  As one friend put it to me upon first hearing it had to do with flyer not properly disclosed—“what did he tear off the tags to some mattresses too?”

Anyone who has been active in campaigns know these kind of mail or phone calls or any number of silly schemes go out with some regularity and usually if anyone gets caught it results in a fine.  In this case, Jeff and the others lied about it, and then lied some more, and lied some more all the way to Nick and him getting two counts of federal obstruction of justice. The cover-up is worse than the initial act, but that cover-up is inexcusable.

I can’t and won’t justify any of it.  I will say that out of that campaign and the 2006 campaign, came some of the most talented young political workers  I have ever seen and every day I see their names in my e-mails working for progressive causes, candidates, and office holders.  This doesn’t make what Jeff did better or wash away his sins–it does say that regardless of the outcome for Jeff, all that effort was not a waste.  Those young, energetic progressive operatives are changing politics and I have every confidence where Jeff failed, they will not.  It was never only about Jeff and even if they question where they started, they have gone on to be successful in their own right.