It’s a good stance for swing voters
Stuart Rothenberg took on the race: (paid subscription)
Finally, Democrats have been acting for months as if they already have Hyde?s Illinois open seat in their hip pocket. Their nominee, Tammy Duckworth, faces Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam, whom they portray as a prot?g? of Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and a conservative firebrand. Roskam worked briefly on Capitol Hill for DeLay (during the Congressman?s first term), as well as for Hyde.
Hyde?s open seat isn?t as Republican as you might think. Bush won it with 53 percent both when he first ran for the White House and four years later when he ran for re-election. Moreover, virtually all of the state legislators from the area are Republicans. But Democrats argue that the suburban Chicago district seems to be inching their way.
Republicans will not let even one of these districts slip away without a blood bath of a fight, and Democratic rhetoric about the Republican nominees in these four districts may not sell well among voters who actually have met the GOP candidates.
I?ve met three of the four Republican nominees in these districts ? all but Meier ? and, after hearing the Democrats describe Bachmann, Gard and Roskam as knuckle-dragging, fire-breathing, right-wing bomb throwers, I was more than a little surprised to find all three personable and reasonable-sounding.
I certainly understand why Democrats hate the Republican trio. All three are politically savvy, unapologetically conservative and results-oriented. In short, they?d likely be formidable adversaries on Capitol Hill.
But expectations are an important part of politics, and Democrats have spent so much time portraying Bachmann, Gard and Roskam as scary ideologues that when voters meet the Republicans, they may not only like them, they may also wonder about future Democratic charges and attacks. (Roskam was recently endorsed by local Teamsters and Operating Engineers unions.)
Of course, Democrats have various sorts of ammunition to use against each of the four Republicans, and if the Democratic tide is big enough, all four seats could turn Democratic. But Democratic strategists would be wise to treat the quartet of Republican nominees in these districts as serious, politically attractive candidates, not as crackpots.
This race is probably going to produce the most press releases with the word extreme in them from both sides. The point is important, Roskam is very conservative, but he comes off as very mild in person and it’s a point I’ve made a few times now.
Most important for Duckworth:
Duckworth is ramping up her November bid by replacing Joe Shafer with Jon Carson, who is charged with developing a more aggressive field organization
I don’t have any opinion on Shafer, but moving towards a more aggressive field operation is essential—the primary showed a very low turnout for a hotly contested race–reaching out to potential voters is essential.
“Finally, Democrats have been acting for months as if they already have Hyde?s Illinois open seat in their hip pocket.”
I wasn’t getting that at all…
I should add–Rothenberg seems to have a crush on Roskam. He makes a point about Roskam’s demeanor that I think is spot on, but I’m not sure about the rest of it.
“Finally, Democrats have been acting for months as if they already have Hyde?s Illinois open seat in their hip pocket.”
Apparently there are only a few ways that Rothenberg knows how to begin an article essentially legitimizing far-rightwingers. First you set up a straw horse and work you’re way from there. In any case, he shows himself far more familiar with Republicans than Democrats. His conclusions are pretty predictable.
“In short, they?d likely be formidable adversaries on Capitol Hill” — boy, did that one give me a laugh.