New Trib poll—and while there is now a clear frontrunner, the race is fluid. Remember poll position isn’t all, buzz, coming ad buys and organization can change things quickly.
Call It A Comeback
New Trib poll—and while there is now a clear frontrunner, the race is fluid. Remember poll position isn’t all, buzz, coming ad buys and organization can change things quickly.
Yes polls aren’t everything but, in this case they are rapidly becoming quite a bit. The initial data thus far (One poll doesn’t make a pattern) may well be showing that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the hull votes, by and large, may be breaking for Obama not Hynes.
So here we go:
1) Obama – can anyone honestly question this now?
2) Hynes – probably doing better than the trib poll shows but still behind nonetheless – this latest one puts Obama outside the margin of error AND the expected bump hynes will get from a low turnout.
3) Hull – dropping like a stone, the money only makes it worse. Hull is like Bruce Willis in the 6th sense – dead and doesn’t know it yet.
4) Pappas – If she pulls off the #3 spot she has to be the front runner to succeed stroger (OK maybe Daley but will he run?) . She has a long hard slog ahead of her though And I am not certain if the Hull freefall will fall enough in time.
5) Chico – For some reason, I think he will do better than expected although I realize that there is no evidence right now to suggest that. Maybe it’s just because he’s my 2nd favorite candidate that leads me to this.
6) In the words of the initial gilligans island song “And The Rest…”
Did I read that right…Pappas might emerge as the front-runner to replace Stroger if she finishes third?
C’mon! Pappas has run one of the worst primary campaigns in recent memory and has exposed herself as a mega-flake in the process. She’s finished.
Glenn, I think for the first time we have a small difference in our rankings–why I don’t post your comments on the front is that they are usually similar to mine.
Hi Larry, You can post them if you want.
Chet,
I think the argument that pappas has, with this campaign, exposed herself as a mega-flake must have been made by someone who has never seen her in her drum majorette outfit twirling a baton at the gay pride parade 🙂
No, I don’t think she is finished. I thought that running was a bad decision at first and, no she has never impressed me – far from it – in any phase of the campaign but If she finishes third she gets the famous “better than expected” result and she will get a boost even if the only reason she finishes third because the wheels do not appear to be coming completely off her campaign.
Things have changed since I last ranked ’em.
1. Obama (rising). But just barely. He’s gonna need some decent turnout to win this.
2. Hull (dropping). His ad buy will certainly help him out down the stretch. But will it help enough?
3. Hynes (steady). No news is definitely not good news. He hasn’t been able to get his message out there very effectively. But you can’t eve discount the power of the machine.
4. Pappas (steady). But holding steady at single digits.
5. Chico & the Rest. Coming soon to a venue near you.
Allow me to offer my own rankings:
1) Obama. Every thing is breaking his way. Not only is he ahead in the polls, I believe his support is still being underestimated. Consider: A) The Trib found that 62 percent of African-Americans are supporting Obama. On election day, he’ll get around 85 percent; and B) Most of the hot local races (state rep, senate, ect.) are on the South Side and South ‘burbs along the Jesse Jr./Shaw Brothers axis. Black turnout will be better than expected. Finally, Hull’s mailer and commercials blasting Obama for “ducking” abortion votes might backfire by charging up Black voters.
2) Hynes. The Trib poll reports Obama is leading in suburban Cook and the collars. Ouch! Needs big turnout in heavily Irish suburbs of Worth and Orland Townships. Must beat Hull downstate.
3) Hull. The Blagojevich ’02 primary model, (Third in Cook, win big downstate,) is still a slim possibility — though Blago never had a domestic abuse charge to fend off. Actually gave the divorce story legs over the weekend — what an amature! Every dime spent hitting Obama and not Hynes is a dime wasted. Spending 30 mill on a political campaign while children go hungry — good chance he will burn in hell for this.
4) Pappas. Agree with Chet’s comment above. The media once thought she was charming — now they know she’s a goof.
5) Chico. Most disappointing campaign since Dick Phelan’s ’94 run for gov. Actually lucky he never shot up in the polls — media would have raked him over the coals regarding his law firm break-up.