Using the Almanac of American Politics numbers, the Bush-Kerry numbers paint an interesting picture regarding what districts are vulnerable to challengers from either party.
3, 8, and 12 are covered in the previous post and obviously 8 is the Republican top target. 12 has a corrupt jackass who the Republicans can’t find a real candidate to run against. 3 is a safe Democratic seat with a conservative Democrat who got the job because his Daddy thinks it’s a family heirloom to hand down.
IL-1 Rush Safe 83-17 Kerry
IL-2 Jackson Safe 84-16 Kerry
IL-4 Guitierrez Safe 79-21 Kerry
IL-5 Emanuel Safe 67-33 Kerry
IL-6 Hyde (open) Competitive 53-47 Bush
IL-7 Davis Safe 83-17 Kerry
IL-9 Schakowsky Safe 68-32 Kerry
IL-10 Kirk Competitive 53-47 Kerry
IL-11 El Geraldo Competitive 53-46 Bush
IL-13 Biggert Safe 55-45 Bush
IL-14 Hastert Safe 55-44 Bush
IL-15 Johnson Safe 59-41 Bush
IL-16 Manzullo Safe 55-44 Bush
IL-17 Evans Competitive 51-48 Kerry
IL-18 LaHood Safe 58-42 Bush
IL-19 Shimkus Safe 61-39 Bush
Obviously other than Bean the only real pick-up opportunity is Evans for Republicans, but that’s still a tough sell there. Democrats have 3 seats that are under 10 points (and actually one that is Democratic).
And while Bean’s district was the most Republican in the State in 2000, that’s no longer true. Shimkus, LaHood, and Johnson are more Republican and 3 more seats are within a point of Bean’s District.
The Demographic shifts are pretty clearly mirroring those in the nation with suburban and exurban areas becoming the battlefield for parties while rural areas are becoming more Republican. In Illinois, I’d argue Dems do well with those shifts, though it isn’t at all clear in other states this wins.
Given Bush’s numbers I’d hate to be El Geraldo in Illinois 11. Illinois 6 is a bit more confused given the primary.
From your lips to god’s ears concerning Worthless Weller!
Do not forget the Swing -voters … I believe Lahood The Hood in IL18 is vulnerable with the right canidate. Peoria replaced a popular mayor because of distrust and disillusionment. The times they are a changing. We just have to appeal to Independants.