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ArchPundit
Cubs increase their offer to Greg Maddux
For those of you who aren’t baseball fans, this will be a painful blog from now until the end of the World Series.
(Peoria Pundit linked to it first)
Uncategorized
How Not to Deal with the Press
Every Presidency does it, but really now, shouldn’t they learn that stonewalling only makes you look like you have something to hide? Even if there is an explanation you look like it is bad.
Josh Marshall reprints Scott McClellan’s Who’s On First performance
Here is the way to make the issue go away–release the records and answer the questions. Even if it is bad, it is better to release it now because you will release them eventually–trust me.
The presumptive Democratic nominee may be needing that advice soon too.
UPDATE: As I was saying, you will release them eventually
Oh, yeah–I forgot Jonathan Wright
in the Republican Roll Call. No one even seemed to notice. I think that makes the point.
Internal Hulls
I’m hearing (nice passive way to avoid who the source is) that the internal polling for Hull is even better. Now, all internal leaks should be treated skeptically. That said, there is a back story why those polls might not be the normal push polling. Hull is a stats geek and we (the statgeeks of the world) have a thing about accurate numbers. Sure, we can push numbers, but more importantly we want to know the real state of the universe. Assuming this info I’m getting is accurate (and no I haven’t analyzed the raw data–but if someone wants to send it to me with the questions I’d be happy to give it a go with the numbers embargoed until after the election!), Hull’s polls should be be both reliable and valid.
Eric Zorn is surprised.
His ads are everywhere, and many insiders and know-it-alls (I’m squarely in the latter camp) who dismissed the uncharismatic millionaire as a vain, inexperienced dilettante who had no chance with the voters must now take serious notice.
Having been down this road before myself, and having been rightly criticized–is it any more vain than the son of a party leader who was handed a statewide office at a young age? This isn’t to pick on Dan Hynes–I like him, but what is the real difference? Hull has an impressive private sector background. Others in the race did work their way up, but if we are going to criticize Hull, let’s spread it around. I am a big fan of legislative experience at lower levels of government, but neither of them have it. At least Hull knows who the hell Kjellander is and what he did.
That said, we shouldn’t be surprised. I’ll have to look it up, but I know at least in private my take is that Hull has to increase his name recognition by this time and then be ready to duke it out. Having all the money in the world helps get that name recognition. This campaign has all of the markings of Corzine’s a couple years ago except with more chaos in the race from the big candidate pool.
The bigger news for Hull, he is getting some organizational support. Over the objections of the elder Hynes, Dick Mell is set to endorse Hull at the end of the month in an event featurign Billie Jean King and also attended by Bobbie Rush and Luis Gutierrez. Mell is organized in labor and can dole out patronage jobs. This doesn’t mean Hull will win the labor vote, but it does mean he can eat into that vote at the margins and this is likely to be an election at the margins.
Trucking Scandal Has Some Good Effects
The trucking scandal is apparently taking a lot of energy out the Mayor. While being cynical about the Mayor is generally correct and he has a tough hide when it comes to criticism, this one seems to be draining him according to some around him.
In response, he is looking to propose a major social service project/agency push to address joblessness and homelessness. Certainly some of it is to change the subject, but this is also a guy who takes on thankless tasks such as school reform. Leaving a legacy also plays an important part in the Mayor’s thinking.
Reported to me: The shocker: most of the agencies are faith-based.
I’m not sure this is a shocker. The Mayor has long worked on getting black ministers on his side and has used them as a conduit for several initatives. And that makes sense–in many of the most decimated communities the only institution still standing is the church. While appropriate concerns exist over proselytizing on the public dime, I have generally found that in such neighborhoods, proselytizing is well behind survival.
Senate Central
I’m back to updating, but to catch up on the best in the race:
Eric Zorn is doing a bang up job
Modern Vertebrate who has all the links and is now reporting at Political State Report. Desperately in need of being added to the blog roll
And finally, the central repository for the Senate race: Illinois Senate
We just entered the hot zone as regular people (those that don’t spend their time at political blogs debating the fine points of empty suits) start to pay attention. Having good name recognition is important to scoring well and then candidates begin to really make impressions now. Hence, the Dan Hynes downstate tour comes at a crucial time. Watch to see who can get a good buzz in the media over the next week.
And Remember Death is Not an Option
with credit for the feature to Steve Rosenbloom of the Trib
Being a Coward or Being an Empty Suit
A little vague for you? Read Kass’s column on the Tribune Editorial Board meeting with the Republican Senate Candidates,
One might think that Kass’ condemnation of those who wouldn’t criticize Kjellander was the strongest, but read it a second time and Jack Ryan comes out looking like a giant boob.
Just about the time one candidate was proving he went to college by offering a fascinating aside on the Treaty of Westphalia and Europe of the 1600s, I got bored and asked a question.=====================
Nobody was paying much attention to another candidate, Jack Ryan, who was still probably thinking about his pithy Treaty of Westphalia reference and whether we understood it.
Ryan said he did not know exactly what the other candidates were talking about but said he’d have an opinion, once "I find out what he did."
It was explained to him, and he said he’d reserve judgment until he had more facts.
Now, in between those sections, Kass drives the point home even harder by pointing out Rauschenberger’s response:
Then Rauschenberger declared: "Well, then I hope you don’t say any more about party building, either of you, if you don’t have an opinion on the national committeeman and what’s going on in the party. Welcome to the Republican Party, but don’t talk about party building in front of public audiences."
Not having an opinion is bad. Not knowing anything is hysterical. From what flipping planet is this clown ?
The column is full of nuggets, but the best is Uber-WASP McKenna saying:
"You talking to me?"
Why I oughta slap you with my white glove!
Republican Senate Roll Call
Remember, this was before the most recent poll.
1) Jack Ryan. Apparently being an empty suit is in this year. Don’t know about Kjellander’s scandal in the Tribune Editorial Board? Being that rich you should be able to buy a clue. Social conservatives love him and he is an attractive candidate. Trekkers still hate him.
2) Oberweis. Yes, he is exploiting his business for political gain and his political campaign for personal gain. It works. Making a lot of noise on immigrants and that gets him attention. Giving away free ice cream for life attracts a lot Democrats to his web site. Still has the social conservatives worried and they are consistently making low level attacks about his ties to G-Ryan and others not in social conservative favor.
3)McKenna–the combine candidate is trying to take back the party for big bidness and the social conservatives aren’t happy. Nevermind that he is a social conservative himself, but he wont’ criticize Kjellander. Still the combine wing hopes this is their guy.
4) Rauschenberger–not getting the money he needs and not capturing the audience. Strange in a way given he is a serious guy. Very serious. It appears to be two problems. First, he isn’t as good as some of the others at the game. Second, he isn’t really beholden to anyone so the natural constituency isn’t there. Don’t count him out though as he has lots of support from state lege members and they can deliver a lot of local votes in a split primary.
5) Borling–Pro-choice in a pro-life party and doesn’t seem to have a convincing rationale for why he should be Senator. As Bob Dole has said, if war records mattered, he would have beaten Clinton.
6) Kathuria–the only person dumber than a candidate who sues for bad press coverage is the campaign manager who doesn’t tackle him and put him in a straight-jacket until the urge subsides. Using the press as a foil is good tactics. Suing them for criticizing a public figure just gets you tossed into the blackhole of gadfly candidate. Nothing escapes a blackhole.
Democratic Senate Roll Call
Okay, pretend this was up last week. But I will be doing another one over the weekend…(meaning the newest poll isn’t taken into account)
1) Hynes–Not as strong as one would expect, but still has union and county organizations behind him which is a lot. A bit bland on the campaign trail and a weak defense of his support for the War in Iraq (remember–I had the same position and I found it weak). The top 4 are in a tie in the polls–something a statewide office holder should not be in given right now–name recognition is the name of the game and he and Pappas should have that advantage
2) Obama–Organization, organization, organization. Still has the single largest block of votes. Bright, articulate and excites the base–combining a lot of energy from Deaniacs and the African-American community. By my scorecard best job in the debates.
3) Hull–catching up in name recognition and the cash is still pouring into to tv stations. Ms. ArchPundit thinks the busing seniors to Canada is hysterical and loves it. When Ms. ArchPundit notices such things it is having an effect. She considered voting for a Presidential primary candidate based on his favorite song being Journey. Running a tight campaign that hits old people, downstate and independent Democrats and is canvassing for his ones and twos everywhere–my family is getting calls in Greene County
4) Pappas–good name recognition, but some of the most bizarre statements in a debate since W. Is there a campaign plan or is she just running around like a chicken with her head cut off?
5) Chico–good debate performance and the only one courageous enough to stand up for gay marriage. Good for you. But he still has no strong organizational support and is the crowded out one in a talented field.
6) Skinner–spirited campaign, but the sticking her head next to Howard Dean for a quick picture looked like someone pulling a prank at an amusement park.
7)Washington–Who? What? Where? and above all Why?
Does it Ever End?
For those who remember the Earl Holt story,
the letters to the River Front Times never seem to end. The first batch is about another particular racist who is on the air at WGNU in the form of Couch Potato. He is a cretin.
Why do these spate of letters continue? Think about who takes the time to write letters to the RFT. Get it now? I thought so. Let’s not extend that thinking to those who take the time (ever so intermittently even) to write a blog.