Call It A Comeback
Huge, huge turnout. Perhaps a record. High everywhere so hard to say if it’s a distinct advantage for Dems which is the usual expectation.
Long waits and huge turnouts. I’m trying to get a sense of what the campaigns are thinking, but not hearing so far–feel free to send tips to archpundit@yahoo.com (even if you have other addresses send it to archpundit@yahoo.com).
Here in DC there is a general sense of cautious optimism amongst Dems, but no hard numbers.
Trib has the problem of figuring out whether voters are dead or not for the election.
I will be posting from the road and from DCCC HQ in DC on election night so keep checking in though during the day tomorrow I’ll be flying until later afternoon. This will be at the top all day as a guide to the next couple days.
For those from Missouri, Click Here to Filter All Missouri Postings (none until later Monday).
Many readers know I have little use for Lee Newcom, former McLean County Board Member until Tari Renner beat him. Newcom was the executive director of the Illinois Christian Coalition, but before that, had a bad habbit of telling young Republicans to pull dirty tricks because they weren’t accountable. Unethical is only where I can begin with that one, but more importantly he’s running for an office that requires good management and he’s had problem with accounting in his political organization.
More on his challenger.
Via Capitol Fax
Lauzen has a tiff in a he said he said with a football coach. Hard to say what happened, but to defend the football coach if this did happen as he says, parental reactions in sporting events are over the top quite often.
The only strange thing about the agreed upon bit is that Lauzen is telling his son not to talk to a coach.
Okay, here are mine since I won’t have time tomorrow.
Nationally
Bush 48
Kerry 50 (just under, but close)
Electoral College
I have it between 273 for Kerry all the way up to a possibility of 347 for Kerry
I’ll settle for 311 Kerry based on my reading of the most recent polls
Illinois Senate:
Obama 73
Keyes 21
Others 6
Senate: Dems 50 Reps 49 with Louisiana left. I didn’t predict this 2 years ago, but the campaigns have been stunning.
House Pick-up of 8 by Dems (generic ballot is very favorable this year)
Local Races
Bean 51-49
Renner 49-51 in a surprisingly strong showing, but the North end of the District holds it for Weller.
Cegelis 45-55
Evans 55-45
I’d be happy to be proven wrong on two of those 😉
Karmeier by 8
Okay, I owe Eric an apology, I’ve been running behind two two year olds and under the weathe and on top of it the time change didn’t sit well with them, but he is running his Blog Bowl II
BLOG BOWL II
I’ve invited a number of bloggers who regularly meditate upon the Illinois political scene to participate in Blog Bowl II, an election prediction contest.
Certain pundits shy from publicly guessing at the results of elections ? and , frankly, I think this is a ruse disguised as modesty designed to allow them to spout retrospective analyses in which they make it sound as if they knew the outcome was inevitable.
Blog Bowl II is not for them.
It will work this way: Each participant must submit to me by midnight Sunday three simple predictions:
1. The final percentage gap between Barack Obama and Alan Keyes (e.g., 37)
2. The final electoral vote margin (and the winner) between George Bush and John Kerry (e.g., Kerry by 10)
3. For tie-breaking purposes only, Alan Keyes’ percentage of the vote.You get one point for each number you’re off (in the above example, if Bush wins by 10 electoral votes, you lose 20 points).
Winner is the blogger with the lowest score.
All predictions (and, if they’d like, links to the blog entries that explain their reasoning) will be published in Monday’s Notebook.
If you blog regularly on Illinois politics and didn’t get a direct invitation from me, it’s because I have an old e-mail address for you or I couldn’t find your e-mail address or because I’m disorganized.
Feel free to enter at ericzorn@aol.com.
Use this format:
(Blog Name ) — Keyes/Obama by XX% ; Kerry/Bush by XX%; Keyes XX% (perma-link) (Optional ? your real name)
Winner gets braggin’ rights until the next election.
“I just voted early in Wheatland Township, Will County. Clerk said that
abentee voters are up four times than normal.”
This jives with everything I’m hearing. It’s going to be a record turnout.
ArchPundit