Uncategorized

Meeks?

That’s intriguing.

The thing about a Meeks candidacy is how it alters the landscape regarding black voters. The assumption, pre-big scandals (when hasn’t there been a little scandal in Chicago) was that part of the reason Daley was invulnerable was a weird position he staked out where he occupied a middle space ideologically. The white ethnics weren’t always happy–especially in the police department, but there is no way to run and win from that side of the electorate. African-Americans voted more and more for Daley giving him a majority of his votes last cycle. Daley accomplished this by targeting African-American ministers in faith based initiatives aimed at their neighborhoods. He had picked off most Latinos in previous elections.

Meeks obviously has the clout with African-American ministers to make inroads relatively easily. He can use the rallying cry from the corruption with minority contracts going to mysteriously pale men.

Leaving the swing vote of Latinos to fight over in the election. The problem here for Meeks is that he would likely have Gutierrez or another Latino jump to hope to split the difference. This far out, it’s hard to imagine that Daley wouldn’t win because he’d be able to hold on to enough of the African-American and Latino vote to go with his base.

The problem for him comes if there is a fourth credible candidate who can take white voters other than lakefront liberals (who are now dispersed throughout the city). I just don’t see that other white candidate emerging. Meeks is an improvement over Jackson Jr. who by my take would simply be another guy with different friends to put into patronage positions, but probably couldn’t run the city very well.

The question then comes down to does Daley want to fight for another term given all the work and time it would take.

My answer: It’s Hizzoner’s city.

Hat Tip To Rich

David Orr Petitions

September 20, 2005

Dear Friends:?

I’m writing to ask for your help in obtaining the?16,000 signatures necessary to place David’s name on the ballot for the March Primary election.

As a long-time friend of David’s, you know that he has been a steady, consistent voice for progressive politics within the Democratic Party.? As Cook County Clerk, David has been at the forefront of voting rights, helping to make voter registration more accessible and voting easier.? He has been diligent in making the County Clerk’s office more efficient, saving Cook County taxpayers millions of dollars.? For more information on all?David has accomplished visit www.DavidOrr.org.

Below is?the link?that will get you started on circulating petitions among your friends, fellow workers, family members and other registered voters in Chicago and the Cook County suburbs.? Before downloading the petition I ask that you please complete the information form in full, even if you?have previously signed up for our?alert list.?

Once downloaded, be sure to print the petition?on plain white 8.5″ x 11″ paper.? Have registered voters sign – not print – their names and addresses on the lines provided.??Remember, this information must appear as it does on their voter registration card.? Signers must be registered to vote in Chicago?or ?the Cook County suburbs and you must witness all signatures given.? After the petition is filled, take it to a notary and sign the certificate stating all signatures were taken in your presence.? Please return to Citizens for David Orr, PO Box 641136, Chicago, IL 60664.

One last thing – we want to hear from you!? Let me know if you have any questions, need help notarizing or would like to drop your petitions at our office.? Keep us posted on your progress.? Send a quick email to info@davidorr.org?or share your experiences?circulating petitions at our Discussion Forum.? Thanks for you help.

Sincerely, Julie Sweet Citizens for David Orr Petition Coordinator O: 312.606.9016 www.DavidOrr.org

Russ Stewart’s on Fire

On Skoien

Gary Skoien, the Cook County Republican chairman, is gamely trying to rebuild his moribund party, but, to use a literary allusion, he’s sort of like Captain Ahab in relentless pursuit of Moby Dick; however, instead of harpooning the legendary “White Whale,” he’s shooting himself in the foot and tossing his sailors overboard.

On Chicago Demographics

And on Edgar and the Republican Senate Debacle in the Making

Concerning Jim Edgar, absence does indeed make the heart grow fonder. So does desperation.

Republican strategists in Illinois, and particularly leaders in the General Assembly, where the party is hopelessly mired in the minority, have conveniently forgotten the fact that Edgar made permanent the 1989 “surcharge,” which raised the state income tax to 3 percent; and they’ve also forgotten that in 1997Edgar backed the idea of a “tax swap,” which would have decreased property taxes while raising the state income tax to pay for increased education spending. Those are decidedly “un-Republican” ideas.

But they remember that 1994 was the Republicans’ golden year, when Edgar was re-elected by a 914,468-vote margin and the party won every statewide office, took control of the Illinois House and kept control of the Illinois Senate. They hope Edgar will run for governor again, and that it will be deja vu in 2006.

Edgar, however, is doing his best rendition of Hamlet. One consequence is that the fractious Republican field for governor is frozen in place, awaiting his decision. Another is that party recruiting is on hold. Potential legislative candidates don’t want to risk running if they might be saddled by somebody like Jim Oberweis as their gubernatorial candidate. And yet others fear that Edgar, if he runs, would be attacked as the “pro-tax hike” candidate

To date, the major story in Springfield is the potential implosion of the Senate’s Republican minority. Seven GOP senators are retiring in 2006, of whom two have already resigned, and an eighth is vulnerable in a primary. The Democrats currently have a 32-27 majority, and that could very well balloon to 36-23 after the next election, making the Republicans irrelevant in the chamber. The seven retirees all represent suburban or Collar County districts, where a Republican should be an automatic victor. In fact, the Democratic-designed 2001 remap packed Republicans into those districts so as to make adjacent areas more Democratic.

Go read them all.

St. Bernard Health Crisis

I’ve been particularly struck by the devastation in the largely forgotten areas surrounding New Orleans and St. Bernard in particular. I received an update on the health situation there yesterday in my e-mail

Rita is on the way and we are already feeling the effects here. ?
We have been ?notified that mutual aid teams, including USAR
groups currently operating in ?the New Orleans area, are being
evacuated toward our location. ?We have spent ?the day placing
additional beds in the shelter and restocking food and ?medicine.
?We have made the decision to reserve this shelter for displaced ?
Louisiana fire fighters and their families. ?We are pointing
other fire ?fighter groups to the LSU campus or to the Baton
Rouge Fire Department for ?assistance.

The member support team working in Jefferson Parish and St.
Bernard returned ?last night after four days. ?It?s clear from
their report that the conditions ?in St. Bernard Parish continue
to be particularly grim. We are concerned about ?member?s health
and overall living conditions. We are working on several ?
strategies to improve the situation. ?Severe and possibly fatal
staphe ?infections were diagnosed yesterday afternoon among
several St. Bernard ?citizens. ?The clinic there was without
Vancomycin, the drug of choice for ?treatment. ?As we had the
medication here, we arranged to have it flown to New ?Orleans
last night by an Angel Flight team.

The member support team working in Gautier, Slidell, Pascagoula
and Biloxi for ?the past three days is due back in a few hours. ?
We currently have an ?additional team enroute to Gautier and
Biloxi to deliver supplies. ?We also ?had supplies flown into
Gulfport and Biloxi on Monday, as well.

Tomorrow is a crew change day with the Wisconsin, Boston, and
FDNY teams being ?replaced with ones from Los Angeles and
Massachusetts. ?Also assisting with ?operations are members from
Natchitoches, La; Knoxville, TN; Hoboken, NJ; ?Jacksonville, FL
and Cincinnati, OH.

I want to especially mention the physician and SEIU volunteer
nurses who have ?made our medical operation such a success. Dr.
Howard Kravetz from Prescott, ?AZ, originally arrived in Baton
Rouge to serve in a volunteer capacity with ?the Red Cross. ?When
he was made aware of our need he came to the center and ?was
instrumental in setting up and running the clinic. ?He has done
an ?extraordinary job seeing patients, acquiring supplies and
taking care of all ?of the folks here. ?Cathy Stoddart, Marcie
Boyer, Van Thomas Lee, and Donna ?Skirbin are all members of SEIU
Local 1199P from Pennsylvania. They too, have ?done a wonderful
job taking care of hundreds of fire fighters, their families ?and
members of the community in need of health care. We are honored
to have ?all of them working with us.

I had two staph infections about three years ago–one of which was resistant to treatment ending up in me having an IV at home for antibiotics. The seriousness of these resistant strains cannot be made clear enough. While the news media has given some attention to St. Bernard, it still isn’t getting the attention due to New Orleans. Serious problems will continue in that area for months given the type of destruction they have faced.

Also, I know there is a lot of resistance to donating to the Red Cross so consider donating to the IAFF’s fund–many firefighters and related personnel are in the region and the money will go to good use.

Jamie Allman of 97.1 also had an interview with a resident of St. Bernards on Wednesday. You can listen in here

Reyes Probably the Co-Schemer

I’m always fascinated by the different phrases federal prosecutors come up with, but Crain’s is reporting more people close to Daley are being identified in filings.

Federal authorities aimed new corruption charges at City Hall late Thursday?and in the process identified as a “co-schemer” a high-ranking city official that fits the description of former top mayoral aide Victor Reyes.
A federal grand jury indicted former city patronage coordinator Robert Sorich, ex-Department of Aviation staffer Timothy McCarthty, and former Department of Streets and Sanitation officials Patrick Slattery, John Sullivan and Daniel Katalinic on corruption charges. All specifically were accused of participating in an alleged scheme to funnel personnel and other city resources to political campaigns by rigging job tests to help political favorites.

….

But the bigger news was the indictment?s reference to an alleged ?co-schemer? identified as Individual A. The indictment does not name Individual A but says the person worked full-time in the city?s Office of Intergovernmental Affairs between 1993 and 2000, and helped run a political field group known as the Hispanic Democratic Organization (HDO).

That would appear to describe former intergovernmental director Mr. Reyes, who left City Hall in 2000 after joining the staff early in the 1990s, founded and still heads HDO, and was Mr. Sorich?s supervisor at City Hall.

I’m not sure this changes much in terms of interpretation of the big picture, but it leads to where a lot of people believed it would–Reyes.

My take on the overall situation is that Daley is probably not in much legal trouble and political trouble is generally overestimated, but could become serious.

The genius of the Machine as much as one can say it still exists–isn’t so much that it’s a highly centralized system with orders coming down from on high, but that it’s an operation that alligns the individual’s interests with those above them making it generally true that those at the top don’t have to be involved in decisions to support the Machine on the operational level.

Sorich and Reyes had every incentive to make Daley better off politically–because if he is, they are better off and they can benefit from the overflow of that power when they move on from public employment.

It’s a mistake to assume that, especially in a case like Daley, the plot goes all the way to the top. It could be true, but just because people as high as Sorich and Reyes are involved doesn’t mean Daley was. Is Daley negligent for not monitoring the behavior? Absolutely. Is he involved? That’s a question I trust Patrick Fitzgerald to answer–though that doesn’t release Daley from accountability. One suggestion by Shakman was to hold Daley and the City in contempt for violating the Shakman decree and that might well be called for in this case.

You do better in the Machine, as it stands now, by providing more foot soldiers and more effort–how you do it has never been questioned and it should have been by people at Daley’s level because they knew the history of abuse.

Crowing that Daley is being brought down isn’t going to make it so. The more likely challenge would be a credible challenge that brings white liberals, Latinos and African-Americans together–but frankly that person doesn’t exist right now (well he might–but he’s in the US Senate). Jackson Jr. is no Harold Washington and while he might get some press out of it, he’s not going to run against Daley in 2007.

It’s exactly the neglect by Daley that also attracts people like Tomczak or the Duffs–they know they can exploit the system and that is where Daley is at fault is by not making it clear that such behavior is not to be tolerated.

Congressional Races

Using the Almanac of American Politics numbers, the Bush-Kerry numbers paint an interesting picture regarding what districts are vulnerable to challengers from either party.

3, 8, and 12 are covered in the previous post and obviously 8 is the Republican top target. 12 has a corrupt jackass who the Republicans can’t find a real candidate to run against. 3 is a safe Democratic seat with a conservative Democrat who got the job because his Daddy thinks it’s a family heirloom to hand down.

IL-1 Rush Safe 83-17 Kerry
IL-2 Jackson Safe 84-16 Kerry
IL-4 Guitierrez Safe 79-21 Kerry
IL-5 Emanuel Safe 67-33 Kerry
IL-6 Hyde (open) Competitive 53-47 Bush
IL-7 Davis Safe 83-17 Kerry
IL-9 Schakowsky Safe 68-32 Kerry
IL-10 Kirk Competitive 53-47 Kerry
IL-11 El Geraldo Competitive 53-46 Bush
IL-13 Biggert Safe 55-45 Bush
IL-14 Hastert Safe 55-44 Bush
IL-15 Johnson Safe 59-41 Bush
IL-16 Manzullo Safe 55-44 Bush
IL-17 Evans Competitive 51-48 Kerry
IL-18 LaHood Safe 58-42 Bush
IL-19 Shimkus Safe 61-39 Bush

Obviously other than Bean the only real pick-up opportunity is Evans for Republicans, but that’s still a tough sell there. Democrats have 3 seats that are under 10 points (and actually one that is Democratic).

And while Bean’s district was the most Republican in the State in 2000, that’s no longer true. Shimkus, LaHood, and Johnson are more Republican and 3 more seats are within a point of Bean’s District.

The Demographic shifts are pretty clearly mirroring those in the nation with suburban and exurban areas becoming the battlefield for parties while rural areas are becoming more Republican. In Illinois, I’d argue Dems do well with those shifts, though it isn’t at all clear in other states this wins.

Given Bush’s numbers I’d hate to be El Geraldo in Illinois 11. Illinois 6 is a bit more confused given the primary.

Bean’s Not a Problem

The DINOs you should be worried about are Costello and Lipinski

From Progressive Punch Wegerje points out two guys in far more Democratic Districts vote just as conservative or more conservative

According to the Almanac of American Politics the Bush-Kerry Split in 2004 for the 8th was 56-44 Bush.

The 3rd (Lipinski) 59-41 Kerry. Same rating.

The 12th (Costello) 52-48. More conservative and an unindicted co-conspirator of Amiel Cueto.

Think John Sullivan in the primary for IL-3.

Why REAL ID For Voting is a Disaster Waiting to Happen

Barack comes through and argues against requiring the use of the REAL ID for voter identification. Barack points out some initial problems in his press release.

Some others don’t quite understand the implications of such a move.

Barack’s points are pretty basic and point out the gulf between the middle and working class and those who truly live in poverty.

“This is a requirement that would be so restrictive that you couldn’t even prove your identity in order to vote with a U.S. military photo ID card or a U.S. passport,” Obama said. “This is a mistake.”

Lewis said the photo ID requirements passed by Georgia and other states are “a form of a poll tax,” used once in some states to keep blacks from voting.

“These laws take us back to the dark past where only a few groups of American citizens could participate in our democracy,” Lewis said.

Voter rights and civil rights groups have challenged Georgia’s law in court.

“Georgia has instituted a law that requires some of the poorest among us – those who probably don’t have access to transportation – to possibly travel great distances and pay up to $35 just for the privilege of making their voice heard,” Obama said.

“This is an extraordinarily heavy burden for the 150,000 Georgians over 70 who do not have government-issued photo identification. If other states followed suit, it would be a burden for nearly 1 in 8 Americans who do not have a driver’s license. And, we’ve got to remember who these folks are – disproportionately poor and without easy access to all the documents necessary for a government-issued ID,” Obama said.

Nationally, up to 10 percent of Americans are estimated not to have driver’s licenses or state-issued IDs, Obama said. Three million disabled people do not have driver’s licenses. Black Americans are twice as likely not to have a driver’s license as white Americans. Only 22 percent of black males between the ages of 18 and 24 have a driver’s license.

The burden isn’t just because someone is poor, but because with poverty comes all sorts of other problems including disabilities that severely limit mobility.

But this isn’t just the regular Driver’s license we are talking about, but the REAL ID. Remember that?

It’s completely a nutty idea that will add new meaning to slow bureaucracy.

It requires that each document used for identification to obtain such an ID be confirmed with the issuing agency and done on renewal as well as paper copies kept for 7-10 years. So every time I want to get a license, Will County will have to confirm my birth certificate and the information on it. Before I can get the actual license. My Social Security number will have to be verified with the federal government and any other identification such as a utility bill will have to be confirmed with the issuing company.

I’m a big fan of the ways Jesse White has improved and streamlined the Secretary of State’s office and made it easier to renew licenses for clean drivers and the such, but this would end it all.

One can theoretically get a license not up to the REAL ID act, but the proposals from the Baker panel would not allow those to be used to vote. Your passport could not be used to vote. Your military ID could not be used to vote. Your voter ID card as it now stands could not be used to vote.

If you take it one or two steps further, it only gets worse. What if you lose your ID within a few days of the election? Are you disenfranchised? What if you use it to post bond for a speeding ticket? Are you disenfranchised if you can’t pay in a couple days? What if a bouncer takes it claiming it’s fake when it isn’t? Are you completely disenfranchised? How do you verify the date of birth for an immigrant? Taking two common examples–The Soviet Union or Yugoslavia (as Durbin pointed out) don’t even exist–how do you confirm a birth certificate?

So what if you move to a new state and the State of Illinois can’t confirm that you cancelled your Missouri Driver’s License–you don’t get a new one until they can confirm such a move. You move in 60 days before an election, try to get a new license 30 days before an election, but Missouri can’t confirm in time (Trust me, not an unrealistic situation)? Are you disenfranchised for moving? What if you have a name similar to others—do they have their license cancelled then because the state can’t tell the difference (this has been quite common in purging vote files). So someone is now disenfranchised because of a bureaucratic mix-up.

Those are barriers for those who now have a licences–let alone the 10% of eligible voters who don’t have a license now at all.

Beyond that, a far more effective strategy would to be to actually employ someone at polls who is young enough to still have eyesight good enough to potentially catch a fraud. Right now, you could require the best ID in the world and the person behind the table wouldn’t be able to tell.

10% of people don’t have driver’s licenses or state issued IDs under current law. That’s likely to jump in the case of REAL ID. So are we really going to say that to vote you have to have such an ID? Or are there other options for individuals who don’t have such ID?

The impact of debilitating poverty on that portion of our society that is truly outside the mainstream is not understood by most. I spend a fair amount of time for work in areas that are poverty stricken and it is a different world. It’s a world where people don’t operate on the same assumptions as those in the blog world for sure and not the same that most people who read this interact wtih on a regular basis. It’s a life that’s not as oriented towards writing checks and using your debit cards, but making do to get through. One that doesn’t worry about six months down the line, but one that worries about the next couple days.

Add to that those who struggle to get through life because of disabilities (and having a disability is a big correlation to being poor) and requiring them to go through a tough process to get a REAL ID is a lot more than it sounds like to those of us who have easy transportation and can be annoyed while waiting at the DMV, but ultimately can do it without worrying about missing a treatment, or your nurse, or your daily food delivery that’s your primary sustenance.

Do we really want to disenfranchise these people?

This isn’t to say that we shouldn’t look to make voting secure, but REAL ID or even a state ID shouldn’t be the only ID–a mailed Voter ID card or a recent utility bill actually makes fraudlent voting pretty difficult. Combine that with competent poll workers and we do far better enfranchising the worst off amongst us while protecting the integrity of voting. It’s the right thing to do.