The Zogby On-Line Poll
ArchPundit
Before coming down with the ear infection, I’d gotten a lot of feedback on the Zogby poll I had posted.
First, it is an online poll and thus, it’s methodology is uncertain, but if one compares it to relatively recent, but traditional polls, the numbers were similar. What I’ve noticed in following the WSJ poll is that further out, it matches well with polling, but like most of Zogby’s stuff in the last two cycles, doesn’t effectively figure out who the likely voters are closer to the election so with a lot of caveats, I think it’s a reasonable poll to pay attention to, but not hold it up as perfect.
I mentioned that Steve Rauschenberger would take his results and crow about them and use them to fundraise and raise his profile–he did–I mean what candidate wouldn’t. There were some legitimate concerns about those names not released from that report–it was unclear to some whether the field was included or not and what it meant either way.
I can report the field was included and here are the results percentage points
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 1099 likely voters statewide, conducted Sept. 16-21, 2005. MOE +/- 3.0
Governor
Rauschenberger (R) 41%
Blagojevich* (D) 40%
Governor
Blagojevich* (D) 42%
Brady (R) 38%
Governor
Blagojevich* (D) 42%
Martin (R) 34%
Governor
Blagojevich* (D) 42%
Gidwitz (R) 35%
Governor
Blagojevich* (D) 42%
Birkett (R) 39%
Governor
Blagojevich* (D) 38%
Baar Topinka (R) 38%
Governor
Blagojevich* (D) 44%
Overweis (R) 40%
Governor
Blagojevich* (D) 42%
McCracken (R) 34%
Governor
Edgar (R) 48%
Blagojevich* (D) 36%
of the serious contenders, everyone is pretty bunched together with interesting results being Topinka increases the undecideds, but still would face a tough race as of today. Oberweis makes Blagojevich look better than anyone else.
Gidwitz does one point better than gadfly Andy Martin. More importantly, Gidwitz is keeping political operatives well fed. Someone’s got to do it (actually they don’t, but what the hell).
I think other campaigns might dispute specific ordering of the serious candidates in the match-ups, but they are all within the margin of error anyway so while I take their points well, it’s just not that big of a deal. There is also the big matchup between the Republicans, but I don’t have those numbers.
Zogby’s in the field as it is right now for the next round and everyone’s included with the exception of Edgar who has been removed. There is a list of Republicans to choose from as well for the primary as well so I’d expect the results around the 1st.