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Gubernatorial Poll

ArchPundit March 14, 2006 No Comments

Same numbers for Judy as in the Post-Dispatch poll and Oberweis is at 21–which is within the margin of error with the P-D poll. The key difference comes in Gidwitz being down at 9 points and Brady at 15. Taking Judy as an established person in people’s minds, she’s unlikely to get much of the undecideds. The way this poll looks, Oberweis would need nearly all of the undecideds.

Brady’s improvement is interesting with being close enough to Oberweis to legitimately say there isn’t much difference between them so it’s not reasonable to ask him to drop out. That helps Topinka by keeping two social conservatives splitting that block of votes. Gidwitz shows no movement in this one so it’s unclear if his commercials are having an impact, but it can’t help Topinka with the undecideds.

That said, the real question to me is whether or not there is going to be a decent turnout. A few commenters have mentioned this over at Rich’s and I’m just not sure that the moderate Republicans are fired up for this race and if they stay home just by a few percentages, it could give Oberweis enough of a boost with a very hardcore passionate support base to pull out a victory. Not only is it possible, but we’ve seen conservative candidates in Illinois Republican primaries pull this off fairly often. The big challenge here is whether Brady will pull enough conservative votes from Oberweis. Even without that Oberweis may just be toxic enough in his own party that there is a hard cap he can’t get beyond, but the poll indicates a 44 % approval amongst Republicans which is a problem in a general election, but in a primary, it’s probably high enough given he needs people who would think enough of him to vote for him.

A Great Take On Claypool

ArchPundit March 14, 2006 No Comments

Really, this was in the works before this mornings news. While I don’t want to take away from the seriousness of Stroger’s health, I think discussing the race in general is fair.

Dan Johnson-Weinberger gives his reason for voting for Claypool and Shore as well as others. It’s a very thoughtful take.

Busy Day and busier news

ArchPundit March 14, 2006 No Comments

Stroger Results, Stroger in Hospital. I wish him a full recovery.

For today, if not longer, I’d prefer not to discuss the health issue on the race since the entire situation is in a bit of limbo and that would be distasteful, so let’s keep comments more on the general race.

The Trib poll shows a 10 point lead for Stroger at 47 and Claypool at 37. Not great news for Claypool, but also not out of what I’d expect with a week out. Claypool isn’t going to win with a wide margin, but he needs to catch fire and cross the finish line by a strong media campaign and decent turnout in areas he does best.

Claypool has AKP doing his media as the article notes (that’s Axelrod) and Wilhelm and Emanuel backing him, but Stroger has the Speaker, SEIU and less important folks like the Governor (the Gov doesn’t have the ground troops the Speaker has–let’s face it. I don’t know the level of commitment Madigan has to this race, but it could be a key factor. Claypool really needs a good turnout in the suburbs and good media to make the final case for his candidacy.

The reason I’m strongly behind Claypool is that the County Government is responsible for several issues that are essential to progressive constituencies. First and foremost is that the County is stuck as the health care provider of last resort and given skyrocketing medical costs, providing that in the most efficient means possible under the system as it stands is the best way to ensure health care for the poor in Cook County. Stroger is not committed to basic cost savings that involve sharing administrative functions and rigorous screening of employees for qualifications. Like much of County Government, it’s a dumping ground for patronage, patronage the health care system cannot afford.

A second reason is Claypool’s committment to the environment and the Forest Preserves in Particular. While I only lived in Cook County for a short time, I always found those to be a wonderful resource. The Sierra Club goes into details specific proposals Claypool would initiate that Stroger has been absolutely resistant to for his entire time in office. Using the Forest Preserve as a dumping ground for patronage employees treats the local environment as a political tool and not a conservation tool and the shape of the preserves demonstrates that well.

When working with relatively small portions of land, maintaining the ecosystem is especially delicate work because a little damage goes a long way. The current moratorium is a long term money loser because by ignoring that maintenance the areas become more difficult to repair over the long run and the costs don’t just increase, but increase at an increasing rate.

Often times when people propose cost cutting, people take that as a conservative position–and often it is. In this case, just as Dean argued, spending on unsustainable items in a manner that cannot be maintained only makes the provision of the most vital services more at risk. The progressive thing to do is to prioritize spending and focus on what best serves the constituents.

Claypool and the Hospitals

ArchPundit March 13, 2006 3 Comments

I’ve been too busy to cover these, but the three most important races to progressives in the primary appear to me to be Debra Shore, John Sullivan, and Forrest Claypool.

One question in comments when I mentioned the Claypool campaign was whether he supported the county hospital system or not. As with both Sullivan and Shore, life has kept me busy, but I think this race is what can save the county hospitals.

The claim from Stroger is that Claypool wants to destroy the hospitals by reducing their staff. The reality is that Claypool wants to consolidate non-medical personnel into one staff that can serve all of the hospitials.

It’s heart breaking to hear that hospitals are going to have cuts in staffing. The image it evokes is fewer doctors and fewer nursers. Cook County’s hospitals are in tough shape so that may happen too, but the best way to avoid it isn’t to ignore the bureaucratic problems, it is to take them head on. One of the most basic problems is that the administrative positions are duplicated at each hospital. Claypool has been attacked for wanting to consolidate those positions. The reality is that Claypool’s ideas are likely to result in the county hospitals better able to keep medical personnel employed, while there will be reductions in adminstrative positions that don’t impact patient care.

I’m realistic enough to understand the tough position that the hospitals are in, may mean a reduction in personnel across the board, but any such reduction should start with administrative personnel that are not involved in patient care. Stroger’s basing his claim on reduced personnel on the loss of essentially patronage jobs. That sucks for him, but it’s damn good for the people seeking treatment.

Volunteer/Donate.

Another race I wished I’d spent more time on…

The Trib Gets One Right: Debra Shore

ArchPundit March 13, 2006 1 Comment

Point source water pollution is a passion of mine. Most of you wouldn’t know it largely because I understand that most folks fell asleep at the third word.

Another passion of mine is electing qualified, quality progressive candidates who watch out for the public interest. Dean, with all of his failures, also understood building from the ground up was essention and here in Misery, we are seeing some progress even.

Those two interests come together in a race that I’ve ignored far too much, especially given how strong one of the candidates is.

The Trib labels her:

Priority One this year is the nomination of Debra Shore, a founding director of Friends of the Forest Preserves and editor of Chicago Wilderness magazine.

Frankly that’s too weak of an endorsement. Another obsession of mine is how local and state government is ignored despite their greater impact on people’s lives (hence, Archpundit was one of the first state politics blogs).

Debra Shore has built a campaign that actually grabs people’s attention for a slot they never knew they voted for before. And she gives a damn about clean water to boot.

Most of the time, Metropolitan Water Reclamation District positions are filled by union backed candidates who will support new construction ignoring what might be best for our environment and the consumer. I normallly respect the Chicago Federation of Labor’s endorsements even when I disagree with them, but this and the Stroger endorsement ignore far larger issues that should be important to the area.

The only regret I have about this endorsement is that I meant to do it some months ago and got sidetracked. Debra even contacted me and I dropped the ball. That is unfortunate because between her, Claypool and Sullivan, there are not any races of clearer importance to Chicagoland voters. Debra is a hell of an activist and with your help, she’ll be a fantastic commissioner. Donate and volunteer as you can.

The Voucher Thingy

ArchPundit March 13, 2006 No Comments

Eric links to a takedown on John Tierney’s recent pro-voucher screed (somewhere behind the NYT firewall).

But an essential point for many of us who are at least theoretical voucher supporters, is that Catholic Schools are facing a dramatic decrease in subsidy and all of a sudden their tuition is increasing. This is one reason the tax credit deal was made between George Ryan and Cardinal Bernadin.

It’s Tightening

ArchPundit March 11, 2006 No Comments

Republican Poll Numbers from Research 2000 conducted for Post-Dispatch and KMOV

Judy 36%
Uberweis 25%
Gidwitz 19%
Brady 11%
Martin 1% (funny, usually a name like Martin is worth a few points itself)
Undecided 8%

Lots more good stuff, but this is the biggest news.

Gidwitz and Oberweis’ twin attacks really might throw this into a three way race–at this point, Brady is dead in the water and doesn’t have enough money to rise above the noise. Oberweis needs some of those to break his way, and Gidwitz needs his and Oberweis’ attacks to move people away from Judy towards him.

Pre-Primary: Bean D-IL-08

ArchPundit March 10, 2006 No Comments

Raised:$222977.67
Spent:$115531.98
COH: $1500266.65

Wow.

Koufax Awards

ArchPundit March 8, 2006 1 Comment

Actually several local blogs are nominated including Soap Box Chicago, though I’m still going with old school Off the Kuff

Proviso Probe Fundriaser

ArchPundit March 8, 2006 No Comments

Carl is doing a fundraiser over at the Proviso Probe so throw him $20 if you can. He’s done a good job over there and actually had someone sue him instead of just threaten. I can never get anyone to file against me. Carl has also been nominated for the first State and Local Blog Koufax Award–consider helping him out there, though I have to admit I’d vote for Off the Kuff by Charles Kuffner out of Houston. He’s one of the first state bloggers and does a great job.

Carl does well exactly what blogs can do–bring stories out of the dark and shine a lot of light on them. Better yet he does it locally where few news organizations can pay enough attention to stay on top of stories. It is where blogs will be able to make the greatest impact over time and he’s ahead of the curve.