Ryan Verdict About 11 AM
ArchPundit
……hmmmmm…what happens if they don’t convict?
Apparently 11 AM was even more optimistic than expected.
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The One I Missed
Three Democratic Presidential Candidates are trying to get Jerry Costello’s support.
Thank God Warner’s not on that list. My decision may be between those who
A) don’t contact Costello
B) are the last to contact Costello
Unindicted Co-Conspirator people–we’re running againt corruption this cycle.
The Must Read Columns
Everything I hear, Meeks is serious, but let’s be clear–he can’t win. There is no way. Cutting a deal is his best shot, it’s just unclear if Blagojevich will think it’s his Sister Soulja moment horribly confusing the situations.
My solution is to ban all outside travel and limit it to taxpayer paid travel, out of the campaign fund, or personal expenses. Provide a larger budget for each Member–as Sweet points out, Congressional travel is important in many respects, and then file all taxpayer paid trips on-line with itemized receipts besides per diem. Voters can then decide what is reasonable and what is not. The problem with the non-profit travel is that it’s a great way to funnel money and hide it–it’s the point of what happened with the golfing trip to Scotland.
Chambers (because I’ve been neglecting my rounds to the RR)—
Mocking. Posturing. Blaming. The state is no closer to a comprehensive statewide infrastructure improvement plan. This is your government at work.
ILLINOIS: Bush Punishing Topinka By Appearing With Her?
Why? Because Tom was right in comments, it cracks my ass up. It’s from the National Journal’s Hotline today.
There is something serious here though–and that is when she tries to distance herself from the national party, it distances herself from the people she needs to turn out. She’ll do well with moderates and independents, but without a base, I’m not sure that matters. Many will come home because of ABB–anybody but Blagojevich, but it certainly depresses turnout if she is running away from the national party and the national intensity numbers for Republicans are horrible already.
What is going to motivate socially conservative voters this fall in Illinois? Bush isn’t on the ballot. No Senate race. The downballot races aren’t terribly exciting for social conservatives. Pankau, I think, is the most conservative–well maybe the AG candidate, but frankly I had to think for a second to come up with Stu’s name. It seems farfetched that Petey the undercover homosexual lifestyle investigator is going to get his non-binding referendum on the ballot to suggest to ban gay marriage in the Constitution of Illinois.
There are four big house races, but in one, Weller is hardly a darling of anyone, and in another Zinga is just a bad candidate. Roskam and McSweeney will fire up the troops, but that is only in two Congressional Districts.
Giving Alexi’s problems Radogno has a very good shot despite poor early polling and if Blagojevich has any high placed indictments come down over the summer, it’s possible that Judy could win, but without these external events it’s really tough to figure out how Republicans don’t have a bad year when the base has nothing to go to the polls for.
You Heard It Here First
Gee, rural schools are in trouble….
Instead of beating a path to an urban school to try to make sense of these abysmal graduation rates, Time instead highlighted Shelbyville High School, about 30 miles outside of Indianapolis. There, an estimated 100 kids from the entering freshman class four years ago dropped out. Almost all of the dropouts interviewed by the Time reporter said “teachers and principals treated the ‘rich kids’ better.”
These were not voices echoing across gritty street corners. The students featured in the Time article were poor white kids, many of them from chaotic family backgrounds. Like the estimated 80 percent of Chicago Public School kids who qualify for free lunch, these students from small-town America fit the profile of kids who give up on earning a high school diploma.
There are some problems with the methodology by the Manhattan Institute, but the general issue is addressed decently–IOW, the got to essentially the right place with not the best way to get there.
Rural schools are in very serious trouble—it’s not by accident that the meth problems are so heavy in rural areas, the lack of jobs and increase in poverty is serious in those areas. As farming has changed, good paying jobs in the local communities are leaving–those that don’t leave are more likely to be left behind in the same kind of spiral we have seen in many urban neighborhoods.
Campaign Etiquette
When you win a primary and you have filed an FEC complaint against your opponent without any actual evidence, be gracious and drop it when you win.
It really pisses people off to be dealing with 2 year old complaints whether or not they are the subject.
That is all.
New Survey USA Numbers
Rod at 47 Approve, 49 Disapprove
That’s the highest Approval and lowest disapproval in the last year. Let’s remember that under 50 for an incumbent is a danger sign, but the track is rather consistent which is interesting. Still not long enough to say for sure, but it looks at least reasonable.
However, we do see some initial trends amongst Conservative voters in all of the categories broken down. It could well be the effect of the campaign to paint Topinka as liberal. That could be temporary or it might just be spite after a nasty primary, but I wouldn’t completely discount the general trend. I can’t stress enough that we need to see more polls, but that trend is consistent throughout all categories and may well indicate some weakness in the Republican base for Judy. That leaves open questions of whether the movement, if true, is temporary and such, but it can’t be a good sign.
Repeat After Me: Rich Guys Who Haven’t Been Vetted Are A Bad Idea
If you are a rich guy thinking of running for relativley high office, hire a private investigator along with someone who does opposition research and see what they dig up and make sure you have answers to all of it before you run. Otherwise, please don’t waste the voters’ time.
Or better yet, run for lower office and work your way up as Peter Fitzgerald did.
Lotta Tort Reform
This might seem funny outside of academia, but within academia it’s friggen hysterical. The mild criticisms Levitt levels at Lott wouldn’t even count for interesting tiff at a professional meeting where borish behavior and concescending denouncements of others are the norm. To sue over such mild statements is bizarre and demonstrates just how thin skinned and bizarre John Lott is.
According to Levitt’s book: “When other scholars have tried to replicate [Lott’s] results, they found that right-to-carry laws simply don’t bring down crime.”
But according to Lott’s lawsuit: “In fact, every time that an economist or other researcher has replicated Lott’s research, he or she has confirmed Lott’s conclusion.”
By suggesting that Lott’s results could not be replicated, Levitt is “alleging that Lott falsified his results,” the lawsuit says.
Lott is seeking a court order to block further sales of “Freakonomics” until the offending statements are retracted and changed. He is also seeking unspecified money damages.
Lott acknowledged in the suit that some scholars have disagreed with his conclusions. But he said those researchers used “different data or methods to analyze the relationship between gun-control laws and crime” and made no attempt to “replicate” Lott’s work.
Replicating the results means using different methods, you dumbass. The point of replicability in the scientific method is that one should be able to conduct the research gathering new data and using different, but appropriate methodology to test the same hypotheses.
What’s most disturbing about this is that if Lott were successful, and he won’t be, it would have a chilling effect on peer review and the ability of academics to criticize one another’s work.
Kevin Drum also addresses how Lott is lying again (and sue me John, I double dog dare you)
Lott could actually make a decent saving face argument that while his research was flawed he found an important point that conceal carry doesn’t significantly increase crime which was heavily in dispute when he first did his research. Now there is some discussion over whether there are minor crime increases correlated with conceal carry, but that is far different than dire predictions of years agod.
But no, Lott makes a bigger ass of himself. I’m sure Tim will be having fun with this over at Deltoid–btw, Lott recently left AEI.