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Cook Analysis IL-10

ArchPundit October 23, 2008 No Comments

IL-10 Mark Kirk Lean Republican to Toss Up

Most private polling shows Kirk up in the single digits, but that’s not anywhere near a comfortable position for a Republican incumbent in a district like this one and in a year like 2008. The key to this race may be the extent to which the DCCC or Democrat Dan Seals use taped endorsement messages from Sen. Barack Obama to get over the top.

Democrats would love nothing more than to knock Kirk out before he could become a serious Senate candidate in 2010 if Obama wins and an appointed Democratic successor is up for a full term. While Kirk can no longer be considered a clear favorite in the race, he remains in slightly better shape than some other GOP moderates in marginal districts.

Callahan Ad

ArchPundit October 23, 2008 No Comments

Going hard negative on Schock

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eU0NHEU9kU[/youtube]

Schock gave her the opening by not just manning up–whether Callahan can exploit it is pretty much what this race hinges on.

Anyone With Duffy Bass Cred Gets My Support

ArchPundit October 23, 2008 No Comments

It was pretty obvious Dwight Kay was going to go after Jay Hoffman using the Governor as a bludgeon–that’s fair in politics and I’ve never understood Jay’s loyalty to Blagojevich–except for that explains it all–Jay Hoffman is loyal.  He’s also a target of the tort reform crowd given he’s a prominent trial lawyer. He’s had a tough year, but especially for my local readers to St. Louis Metro, go help Jay out.

On social issues, Jay is to the right of me, but he also fits his District well.  His Facebook group is here and there are far too few of us on it.  He’s been spending a lot of time trying to get Obama elected this cycle, probably a bit to the detriment of his own election–give him something back!

Stick a Fork in Ozinga

ArchPundit October 23, 2008 No Comments

Third consistent poll on IL-11

A new Roll Call poll is echoing an already-somber tone for Republicans in central Illinois, as state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D) has a double-digit lead against Chicago-area concrete magnate Marty Ozinga (R) two weeks before Election Day.

The automated SurveyUSA poll was conducted for Roll Call on Oct. 20-21.

In the poll, Halvorson, whom Republicans have worked overtime in recent months trying to link with Land of Lincoln’s scandal-plagued Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), was ahead of Ozinga, 50 percent to 37 percent.

Green Party candidate Jason Wallace took 9 percent of the vote.

The survey, which interviewed 623 likely voters had a 4-point error margin.

I don’t hide that I like Debbie a lot and think she’ll be a great Congress Critter as Rich would say.  That said, the job of tieing Ozinga to Blagojevich is audacious given Debbie’s role in being Emil’s lieutenant. That said, I also pointed out when Ozinga got in that the entire Republican case in Illinois had to be bashing Blagojevich and the Republicans chose the guy who couldn’t effectively do that.

As is becoming clear, this is a wave election–as I also predicted some months ago.  I would expect some surprises—my guess being Harper.  Roskam works his butt off and is a good campaigner.  He could get caught in a wave given the partisan breakdown, but it’ll be tougher to catch him.  Schock is a putz, but he’s seen as moderate even though he’s a movement wingnut and also works his butt off. The scandal has a chance to tarnish that a bit, but he’s a tough campaigner.  Manzullo has potential to be surprised, but he works the district hard so it’s a bit tough to surprise him.

Biggert seems to have only woken up in the last few days and as Rich posted a comment from someone, she fits the profile of someone about to be surprised.  Here’s Harper’s latest ad:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00B61p47ruU[/youtube]

My guess right now is that IL-10, 11, and 13 flip to Democrats giving Dems a 14-5 edge in Illinois Congressional seats with only one suburban seat.

You Hate Me! You Really Hate Me!

ArchPundit October 23, 2008 No Comments

The good news for Rod Blagojevich is that compared to two recent polls, the Tribune poll has a higher approval rating for him.

The bad news is his approval rating is 13 %.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t believe Ryan got anywhere near that low.Of course, this begs the question of who is the 13%.  Even weirder are the 8% who think he’s carried out his promise to clean up corruption. One might presume they are family—err…well maybe not or just misheard the question.

Rich says he cannot believe Blagojevich will run again.  I say that there are many things I cannot believe about Rod Blagojevich’s tenure as Governor.  He may be under indictment by then, but he could well pull a Ted Stevens.

Cook Moves IL-10 to Toss-Up

ArchPundit October 23, 2008 No Comments

Another set of changes by Charlie Cook moves 11 races towards Democrats, 1 towards a Republican (Mahoney in Florida).

Lots of chatter about internals having this race close to or a tie now, though nothing confirmable.  Unless something changes, Kirk is in real trouble as early voting is incredibly high and high in areas where Seals does best.  On top of it, Kirk doesn’t appear to have a ground game from what I gather.

RNCC Gives Up on IL-11

ArchPundit October 22, 2008 No Comments

Progress Illinois covers it

Somewhere around 2 weeks ago the polling started to tank and the reality is starting to set in.  You cannot say it publicly, but it’s clear the entire Republican national apparatus knows it’s bad and it’s now simply about limiting how bad.

Lake County Clerk Apparently Clueless

ArchPundit October 21, 2008 No Comments

Progress Illinois covers Lake County incompetence.

I’m not sure why checking IDs for everyone is even a concern in this case:

Starting in mid-August, Helander’s staff began flagging questionable mail-in voter registration applications — over 1,000 in total by the time the October 7 registration deadline passed. All told, those cards make up a fairly small fraction of the 28,020 new registrations fielded by the clerk since the summer. They’ve since been set aside for investigation by the county’s state’s attorney and sheriff offices.

Even though the “compromised” registrations have not been added to the voter rolls, Helander has asked the state’s attorney whether she could legally require voters to present some form of identification in the precincts where most of the problematic forms originated. Incidentally, those areas — Waukegan, North Chicago, and Zion — tend to lean Democratic. As such, this proposal raises questions about whether the Republican official is simply intent on overseeing a fair election or using broad concerns about “voter fraud” to suppress Democratic votes in the county, which will play a pivotal role in the tight race for the 10th Congressional District.

But here’s the thing:

If you do not have a driver’s license, State Identification Card or
social security number, and this form is submitted by mail, and
you have never registered to vote in the jurisdiction you are now
registering in, then you must send, with this application, either (i)
a copy of a current and valid photo identification, or (ii) a copy of a
current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck,
or other government document that shows the name and address
of the voter. If you do not provide the information required above,
then you will be required to provide election officials with either (i)
or (ii) described above the first time you vote at a voting place or
by absentee ballot

Everyone in Illinois has had to prove their identity or they do so when they first vote.  There’s no point in checking everyone when anyone who is a new registrant by mail has to provide proof of identity already.

Fail.

So Is OneMan

ArchPundit October 21, 2008 No Comments

39 or 40? We all want to know

WCPT Expands with some FM coverage.

ArchPundit October 21, 2008 No Comments

Dear Listener,

Even though it’s early to declare victory in the election, we have some news for you that is almost as good! Progressive Talk programming is moving to the FM dial! From 5:00 am and going until 9:00 pm, Progressive Talk will be heard on 92.5-FM (Western Suburbs, Rockford and Southwest Wisconsin), 92.7-FM (Northern Suburbs, Chicago North Side and Southern Wisconsin) and 99.9-FM (Southern Suburbs, Chicago South Side and Northwest Indiana). In addition, WCPT-AM at 820-AM will continue to broadcast Progressive Talk from sunrise until sunset. The Dance Factory program will air on the three FM stations from 9:00 pm until 5:00 am, however, you will still be able to hear Progressive Talk after 9:00 pm each night by going to our new web address at http://www.chicagoprogressivetalk.com.

Since WCPT signed-on at 850-AM from Crystal Lake and later moved to 820-AM, we have developed a growing, passionate and loyal audience. Chicagoans deserve more Progressive Talk radio and with the addition of three new FM signals, our message will not only be heard by thousands of more people, but we will also be there every morning, no matter what month of the year that it is.

We want to thank each and every listener to WCPT on the AM dial. Without your support of the station and our advertisers, we would not be able to take this wonderful step. Now, Progressive Talk radio is there for you on the AM and the FM, in the AM and the PM! Our expanded lineup will be:

5:00 am – 8:00 am – The Bill Press Show
8:00 am – 11:00 am – The Stephanie Miller Show
11:00 am – 2:00 pm – The Ed Schultz Show
2:00 pm – 5:00 pm – The Thom Hartmann Show
5:00 pm – 8:00 pm – The Rachel Maddow Show
8:00 pm – 9:00 pm – The Ron Reagan Show
9:00 pm – 5:00 am – Dance Factory

Join us on the FM dial at 5:00 am at the new home of Progressive Talk, 92.5-FM, 92.7-FM or 99.9-FM, or you can still listen to us at 820-AM.