Gray Davis Like
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Most disturbingly, it didn’t help.
Remember the Blagojevich staff posting pro-Oberweis comments?
2006 Governor’s Race
Great, Now I Have to Cover Another Campaign
I agree with Rich–you get on the ballot, you get coverage in Illinois. It’s an impressive effort. Congrats to the Greens.
If they don’t get knocked off.
The Gray Davis Campaign
Everyone looks at the Governor’s poll numbers and insist he is going to lose. He’s certainly vulnerable, but the playbook is right out of the Gray Davis reelection campaign and while not very popular, Davis suffered from some of the same problems Blagojevich does with big money donors receiving favorable treatment. Yet Davis won.
His numbers recovered slightly over the next year, peaking again in July 2002, this time with 41% approval, 49% disapproval
On top of it, Davis started attacking early, though Blagojevich didn’t quite go as far. Davis started attacking in the primary to avoid the moderate candidate–imagine if Blagojevich had been bold enough to go after Judy in the primary so he would draw Oberweis. Man, that would have been good blogging.
Frankly, Blagojevich is far warmer than Davis and Judy’s non-campaign is only helping him set the terms of the campaign cycle. In a Blue State, in a Blue year, she’s missing her chance.
The Ferris Bueller Campaign
I’m expecting Ben Stein to be standing around going, Topinka….Topinka…Topinka…Topinka….
I generally like Judy, but this campaign appears to have all the well oiled machinery of Dawn Clark Netsch.
Except for one thing: DCN could tell you what she was going to do 10 years before she ran for Governor. Obviously, she can articulate why she wants to be Governor, but it sure would be nice if she did.
I’m Not On The List
The Mark
The Tribune has the full clout list on its web site. (PDF file.)
Coming on the heels of Blagojevich’s clout list, which may or may not be a fake, here’s the question: what about the people left off?
One of the great ironies about the ethics problems faced by Blagojevich is that the big complaint among Democratic operatives in the first year was that they did not have access to state jobs. (Full disclosure: I fall into that category.)
The new administration’s hiring process was chaotic, and many Democrats who has worked with and around state government were locked out. Their names do not appear on the clout list. Conversely, many of the names on the clout list are unknown to long time operatives. And downstaters who had been locked out of state jobs by Republicans complained that they still could not get access to state jobs.
The Daley list, on the other hand, seems to be about right in terms of who should have been “rewarded” after the successful Daley campaign.
In retrospect, it seems that the chaotic hiring should have been the first warning sign of the biggest failure of the Blagojevich administration. Say what you will about his politics, Daley knows how to run the city. Blagojevich, on the other hand, has done a lousy job in the day-to-day running of the state.
It seems that their respective levels of managerial competence can be seen in how they handled their first challenge: who to reward after a successful campaign.
UPDATE: Illinois is not the only place where patronage is being investigated.
The Other Guy You’ll be Hearing about A Lot in Political Circles That You’d Never Heard of Before
Randall Stufflebeam, seeking to be on the ballot for the Constitution Party of Illinois
He even has an FAQ should Topinka be nominated:
I could only hope and pray that the Republican Party would select Judy Baar-Topinka. With her liberal leanings, her nomination would almost assure me of a victory. However, if the poll that was taken on the ?Illinois Leader? website is any indication, the likelihood of her being nominated is not all that great. However, as the ?Illinois Leader? is more reflective of the ?Conservative? Republican, this would not necessarily account for the more moderate republican who may think a more liberal republican would have a greater chance to win.
Randall isn’t going to be Governor, but that’s not the point really.
The Logistics of Getting on the Ballot Now
“New Parties” Must submit petitions gathered between March 28th and June 26th (Last day to file) to get on the ballot. If Meeks were to attempt a run, he’d have to gather about 25,000 signatures plus extras to avoid challenges. He can do that and do it relatively easily, but my guess is he’s willing to bargain–the question being will Rod be willing to negotiate enough to satisfy him–are there ways to make Meeks happy if not.
The real question though is whether Meeks is really going to only hurt Blagojevich. Given Meeks is to the right of both on social issues, does he take a huge chunk of religious voters as a minister? Or does it only come from African-Americans?
Does splintering the vote lead to more people getting in? Oh, the irony if Roeser were to back some clown.
The Bitter Contest: Democrats Against Blagojevich or Republicans Against Judy
Besides Conley and some random grumblings, I’m actually surprised there isn’t more bitterness at the Governor by some Democrats.
On the other hand, it would appear the ICFST is in great shape and will continue it’s long tradition of looking a gift horse in the mouth.
As someone commenters over at Capitol Fax might make it sound, the faithful of both parties are more likely to vote for the candidate of the other party.
There is some chance this might happen, though not in as many numbers as the chicken little theorists believe. Given Judy’s social moderation, some conservatives might find Rod slightly less objectionable given he’s held the line on sales and income taxes. I believe Illinois Policy Institute actually rated Judy below Rod, but I can’t find the page—I’m sure Greg can correct me if I misremembered.
And given Rod’s not popular with many state workers, there’ll be some crossover there–but more likely is that key constintuencies won’t be as mobilized.
There are a thousand things that can change between now and November such as if indictments hit the Administration–I’m betting not, but it’s a possibility. Assuming things stay the same, the challenge is very different between the two parties.
Rod has one key advantage in that the biggest chunk of support organizationally in the party is generally behind him. Madigan sees his reelection as a good thing, Stroger’s replacement will be on the ballot pushing the Machine Remnants, and SEIU is strongly behind him. The national effects are also an intriguing aspect of this–Rod can run against Judy and the Georges (Bush and Ryan). Given the President’s approval is in the tank and Bush’s endearing refusal to actually change anything that he does seems to mean that’s not going to change between now and then.
On the flip side, Judy is generally well liked by women in the suburbs which is a key demographic for Rod. He’s not going to do well downstate this time–just look at the primary results. That married woman demographic in the suburbs that is a key swing vote is generally tailor made for a moderate Republican like Topinka.
I do see a double problem for Judy–with the President’s rating in the tank a lot of Republicans will be ambivalent on that and with a moderate, conservatives have little reason to be excited except in Congressional Districts 6 and 8. Judy has to excite a base that is increasingly conservative.
It turns then into a question of what kind of election will this be.
If it is an election at the center, Judy gets the upperhand by being able to attract swing voters. If it is an election of the bases, Rod has the upperhand with a stronger base that is motivated to get the vote out. What will it be?
I’ll let you know late on November 7th.