First, if you want a good analysis of his national numbers there is only one place to go anymore and that is Charles Franklin’s Political Arithmetik. Charles actually does this work as a working political scientist and views it as a professional question, not as someone with a partisan angle. And he’s really, really good.
Bush has bounced up to around 40%, though that’s not exactly something to be excited about.
What’s interesting is the effect in Illinois. While he’s moved up from the mid-30s nationally and a little lower, his Illinois numbers are pretty much stagnant according to this month’s Survey USA poll which puts him at 31% approval. Both the national unweighted and weighted come close to Charles’ trend line so that is consistent with other polling. Bush has jumped between 28 and 33 percent approval for several months.
The local effect is that any movement upwards for Bush is unlikely to be helpful to the Illinois GOP where Bush is just toxic.