In a related posting to yesterday, one commenter brought up Grover Norquist and his efforts to organize conservatives in so many states.
Like most political svengali’s Norquist is given a lot more credit than he deserves. Most of the movement would have occurred anyway, though not as fast. In fact, the best thing to credit him with is that he and his allies forced realignment faster in the south and west than did Democrats in the Northeast and Upper-midwest.
Rich Miller covers Norquist’s efforts in Illinois and points out some of the leading followers.
So the question is can Grover bring the Illinois Republican Party into a hard hitting opposition party that takes no prisoners and eventually takes over the state government?
Look at the coalitions. Who is the strongest Republican statewide right now? Judy Baar Topinka and the reason why is that she appeals to moderate Republicans, swing voters and many Democrats. What happens if the Republican Party turns nasty and fights hard? They lose her in a primary and come out with a fire-breathing conservative who loses the general. Fire breathing conservatives are fine in fire breathing conservative states, which Illinois is not.
Getting rid of moderate Republicans won’t work if the state isn’t conservative. It might work for an election where one can control the agenda, but one can’t control the agenda forever.
Of course, Illinois tried unified Republican control and didn’t like it much in 1994. 1996 Madigan pulled the Dems back in control of the House and ever since, Democrats have made gains in state government. Part of this can be accounted for by scandals, but the Illinois Republican Party is moving to the right while the state is constant or slightly moving to the left. You don’t win in a state like Illinois by subtracting the so-called RINOs.
But if Grover cares to try, I know a whole lot of Democrats who are happy to help him out.
That being said, they’ve decided to try and turn Blagojevich into the personification of their problems. Besides Blagojevich having the right loyalties on the North Side (not bad play-by-play there Guv), Blagojevich is showing a hell of a lot more political savvy than I gave him credit. Miller also points out the structural problem for conservatives
By focusing conservative ire on Blagojevich, the activists might finally have something to do besides organize circular firing squads. Outmaneuvering their fellow travelers in an endless game of "I’m the most important conservative in Illinois" seems to be their favorite pastime. Still, it remains to be seen whether the same people forming yet another "new" coalition ? even if it is affiliated with the right’s most successful consensus-maker, Norquist ? will be able to move beyond their self-immolating habits.
Conservatives in Illinois argue that the party simply isn’t conservative enough creating a pattern of one-upsmanship that pushes candidates farther and farther to the right. Hence, the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team continues marching on–in circles.