ArchPundit

Kaus is officially a cheerleader

Kaus is officially a cheerleader and not a journalist

Kaus offers up comments on welfare again and loses any sort of balanced approach. First, welfare caseloads are down. This may or may not be a good sign. One of the features of welfare reform is that states have every incentive to cut-off recipients and so we see an increase in administrative cut-offs. From his link, we don’t have an analysis of what kind of cut-offs are they so whether this is good or not is hard to tell.

Admin cut-offs are for violating rules. Adding to this, caseloads should be dropping since many states are hitting the 5 year time limit–though many are evading this as well.

The second piece of news is also mixed. It is great that black children are moving out of poverty, but what does that mean about other race poverty since overall child poverty is constant? Probably that rural poverty isn’t being improved and that is going to be a serious test of welfare reform. Rural poverty is much harder to target as are rural schools.

Welfare reform did some good things, some bad things (permanent residents) and some things we just don’t understand yet. Kaus seems intent on using every piece of evidence to prove his point. The problem is he is supposed to be a journalist who has some objectivity.

Steve Rhodes gives airing to

Steve Rhodes gives airing to Schipper some space regarding the conspiracy theories concerning Hamas, Oklahoma City, and Iraq. It is a conspiracy theory. Sometimes they turn out to be true, but mostly not. This probably falls in the not category.

Additionally, the theory seems to be that Hamas and Iraq cooperated on this. There is little evidence that Hamas operates outside of Israel and the immediate area. Fundraising yes, operations no.

This paragraph is especially problematic:

Schippers had come full circle. His theory: A Hamas front had trained Iraqis for participation in the Oklahoma City bombing. The path of Wright?s investigation had been converging with Davis?s all along. And bin Laden was behind the entire mess. Worse still, sources were saying the same conspirators were going to strike again.

This means Hamas, al Qaeda, and Iraq were cooperating to perform this function. This is hard to believe without substantial intelligence information.

Even stranger, why are they training for a job that really requires 2-4 people at most? At best, this is sloppy thinking.

What one seems left with is:

1) Hamas might be training in the US
2) There might be a third person involved in Oklahoma City
3) Apparently terrorists are now suing for libel?

Wanting something to be true, doesn’t make it so. And most of the “evidence” seems to be based on similar reasoning to those who compare coincidences between the Kennedy and Lincoln assassinations.

Exactly what productive purpose do

Exactly what productive purpose do law profs serve anyway

In a typical orgy of self-congragulatory masturbation by law professors, Volokh argues that John Dean is right on the 17th amendment. The argument is based in defending the Supreme Court’s decisions rolling back federalism.

Too bad that the deciding factor for the Court is ideology and not federalism or Volokh and Dean would have a case. But, as usual, neither has done a serious review of the literature with one of the better pieces available in Publius Summer 2000:

Federalism Outcomes and Ideological Preferences: The U.S. Supreme Court and Preemption Cases
William R. Lowry and Brady Baybeck

Law professors are notoriously unable to handle the scientific method so this shouldn’t be a surprise. Or to look outside their narrow fields in the law for evidence. The authors demonstrate that the federalism cases are decided on by right-left ideology and that when one controls for that, federalism as an issue is not significant. Who’d a thunk it?

Volokh also makes the insinuation that moving Senatorial selection back to the state legislatures would solve campaign finance problems is amazingly divorced from reality. States, with a few notable exceptions, are far worse in monitoring campaign cash. The actual effect would be more likely to create insider candidates that are more beholden to organized interests. Peter Fitzgerald could never happen in such a system. Neither could Russ Feingold or John McCain or any other independent thinker in the Senate. If one wants to improve party discipline this is a good idea. However, it wouldn’t necessarily make the system any more friendly to states except in the awarding of pork. Mike Madigan, your US Senator—WOOOOOHOOOOOO!

Of course, given Mississippi has Democratic chambers, it would be a convenient way to dispose of Lott and Cochran.

Now to the core of the argument all one has to consider (which was done in while passing the 17th amendment) is what influences state legislators? Reelection and in achieving that they would seek to please organized interests. What a big improvement that would be! Maybe we can just start sponsoring the Midwestern Senators by ADM and add NASCAR like patches to their suits. Direct election at least provides an election to check the influence of organized interests. We see this rather frequently in Senatorial elections especially. This is why we generally see the Senate also take a middle road more often than the House. Electing Senators in State Legislatures ties them much closer to organized interests.

Much of the argument rests on what the framers originally wanted and little analysis is given to what such an institutional arrangement would produce in today’s environment. This is typical of right wing law professors. They simply don’t have the rigorous training of social scientists and historians. Instead they try and argue about the number angels on the head of a pin when they should be doing serious institutional analysis of reforms. Senators approximate the average of a state and so are center oriented for their state on average. State legislatures would not produce the same result generally, instead choosing candidates from the center of the party in power.

State legislature selection of Senators would also result in greater ties to interest groups because the average person doesn’t have a lobbyist, but the average organized interest does. It is great to argue pluralism will take care of this, but small disorganized groups are less likely to be potential swing votes, and hence less likely to have attention paid to them.

Finally, it is very doubtful that such a change would lead to more respect for federalism. State legislatures aren’t going to choose based on views of federalism, they are going to choose on what gets them reelected and that is how well the Senator is going to bring back pork for his or her supporters.