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An Admission

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

I along with many others who talk about politics thought Judy would be a natural antidote to Rod’s poll tested themes and smooth delivery.  Underlying that assumption was that she built up a lot of goodwill through her time in office and was well liked by voters.

I think the reality is setting in that she wasn’t that good of a candidate for a bunch of reasons that are abundantly clear now.  Rolling pin jokes are funny until everyone is listening.

And I count myself in this category, but I think there needs to be a rethinking of how this election played out.  Rod is credited with killing her off early and that’s not entirely wrong, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.  She had a strong hand in killing her own campaign off.
This kind of goes with my points in the past that political junkies like her for the very reasons the public doesn’t. She’s brash, a little loud, a bit goofy, and doesn’t pretend to have easy answers. The problem with that is when people pay a fairly small amount of attention to politics and that’s their first impression and then it gets reinforced, she’s not so likeable. Average voters aren’t taking the time to get to know the goofy good side, they are seeing what seems like your crazy aunt in the attic running for Governor.  Some might still argue that’s better than Rod, but it doesn’t matter.

Sure the ads finished her off, but the initial wounds were self-inflicted.

Stu Who? Pankau? Rutherford?

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

Kind of funny given we are talking about third party candidates who aren’t getting included in polls, but does anyone plan on polling these races anymore?

Your ICFST (Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team) relegated to third party status in the campaign.

40-23-5

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

Gianoulis in the lead

The poll also found that in the race to replace Topinka in the treasurer’s office, Chicago banker Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat, has the support of 40 percent of voters compared to 23 percent for Republican state Sen. Christine Radogno of Lemont. Green Party candidate Dan Rodriguez Schlorff got 5 percent.

But nearly 30 percent of voters were undecided in the treasurer contest and large numbers had never heard of either major party candidate, despite a series of stories about questionable loans given by the Giannoulias family’s Broadway Bank, the survey showed.

44-29-13

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

Trib polling up on the Governor’s race.

Technically, he gained a point. I mean that’s meaningless given natural fluctuations, but you’d think something would dent the armor. Apparently not.
Will Quinn get back to regular form after the election at least? It could be fun seeing him battle down the Guv as the investigations continue.

A week before the election, the survey of 600 likely voters shows Blagojevich backed by 44 percent, Topinka supported by 29 percent and Green Party candidate Richard Whitney with 13 percent. Another 13 percent were undecided in the survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, which has an error margin of 4 percentage points

Even more fun from the end:

The survey found independent voters divided in their support for governor—29 percent for Topinka, 28 percent for Blagojevich and 24 percent for Whitney. Blagojevich also was leading Topinka in the traditionally Republican-leaning collar counties—35 percent to 29 percent—and he trailed by only 2 percentage points Downstate.

Neanderthals

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

Sort of writes itself.

Even so submit your punchline in comments.

New Cook Analysis

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

Here

With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating.   Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.

If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.

The dynamics we are seeing this year are eerily similar to those in 1994.   The President and party are different, so are the issues, but the dynamics are comparable.

In 1994, Democrats were in trouble because of tax increases, a failed health plan, and the crime bill (read, guns).   There were also a myriad of scandals that started in the late 1980s that moved voters, including many Democrats, to reject the party’s candidates, including some once-popular incumbents.

This year, it is the war in Iraq and scandals.   For conservatives, the list also includes the Mark Foley affair, immigration, high government spending and high deficits.   For Democrats and independents, stem cell research and Terri Schiavo round out the list.   Finally, it would seem that voters of all ideological stripes feel that the GOP-lead Congress has become dysfunctional.

So the Majority Watch Polling

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

I want to believe they are correct because they are predicting a big pickup with Dems getting 240 seats as of now, but I’m not trusting the polling.

On the positive end they have some of the biggest samples of any polling out there–especially for House elections.  If I’m them and defending myself, I tell you that by reaching more voters they are getting a better picture of the year’s dynamics.  The most helpful part of the polling is it gives better snapshots of sub groups as bigger samples mean smaller MoEs for those sub samples. CD even points this out on their site
That could be true, but generally polling is relatively accurate and those that diverge most from the average are usually more wrong than others.

Two key issues seem relevant here. First, do the automated calls make a difference. Generally, Rasmussen and Survey USA have done good jobs in recent elections so I don’t automatically dismiss them, but I also know we don’t fully understand the effects of automated polling on respondents.

Second, and where most polling has issues, is how they determine likely voters. In this case they do by selecting a pool of voters that are judged to be likely voters from the voter files themselves. Different screens are used by different companies.  The instrument gives a quick second crosscheck that the individual is actually registered to vote in their methodology section.  They also provide the response rates which is pretty good for a polling company.
The voter file step is not typical for most polling firms and I’m not sure how it affects accuracy.  I can come up with a theoretical reason why it should help accuracy, but that’s ultimately an empirical question.

So I don’t have a strong conclusion to make about the Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies Majority Watch project other than to say they aren’t doing anything unreasonable, but I’m still concerned about their results because they seem to be diverging more than others in some key races.

DCCC Going into IL-10

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

It helps that it’s one market and this is the third race, but it’s a very good sign for Seals.

The Big Bad ILDemNet

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

What the hell are the editors at the Tribune doing?

Dennis Byrne is a) lying or b) so incompetent he should have someone ensuring his bodily functions are properly cleaned up after or c) both. I think everyone can guess which I think is true.
Seriously, how dumb do you have to be to claim the site was cleansed when this is what you get on a basic google search

Trying to paint Leo as some part of a dark conspiracy is hysterically funny, but not very serious. Further, Leo disputes that any e-mail was sent at all. At a minimum the Trib needs to be producing the e-mail Byrne claims to have sent.

As another hint to the editors at the Trib–since Byrne is quite clearly too stupid to get this point–the calendar function is a new fangled web thingamajib that actually, gets this, updates as time passes! It’s like magic! Even more magic if you hit the little button << that, ummmm...is the way to find all of the previous entries. BTW, the pick-up location is prominently displayed on two different calendar entries on the front calendar page right now. So essentially, a networking tool for activists on-line and off-line is a deep dark conspiracy in Byrne's mind. The "net" is literally a network and not really an organization. It started out of the Yahoo! groups for Kerry and developed into a greater site since then. It's main function is for a bunch of like minded people to coordinate where to meet and where to go and provide a calendar function for Democratic activists throughout the state. Perhaps Byrne can devote his next column to his disgust that Jack Roeser funds Peraica given Roeser lives in Kane County. To submit a letter to the editor at the Chicago Tribune, send e-mail at ctc-TribLetter@Tribune.com or fax to 312-222-2598 or write to Voice of the People, Chicago Tribune, 435 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60611.

New Constituent Dynamics Polling

ArchPundit October 30, 2006 No Comments

I was a little leery of their first round after looking through the numbers, but several of the races are closer to other polls–not all that uncommon as you get closer to election day and everyone starts to take a firmer stand for whom they’ll vote.

The big number which doesn’t match any other poll

IL-10 with a 2 point lead for Seals.   I won’t go out on a limb for this set, but it’s a good sign and it means you should be in one of three places on election day IL-6, IL-8, or IL-10 and IL-11 if you are in that area–no polling on it

October 24-25 ~1000 in each District with +/-3%
IL-8 Bean 50

McSweeney 45

IL-6

Duckworth 48

Roskam 47

The Daily Herald also has a new poll out for IL-6 and IL-8

Duckworth 42

Roskam 46

Bean 42
McSweeney  39
Scheuer 8
Turnout is going to determine the likely outcome in these races with the motivation factor being even in most of the polling for Constituent Dynamics.

In Iowa news, Boswell and Braley look safe with the new poll for IA-2 putting it at 50-48 with Leach in the lead.  Again, another turnout race so those who might be in that area head to David’s Loebsack’s web site to help out.