The guy who is winning the ArchPundit primary if that guy from Illinois doesn’t get in just announced for the 2008 nonimation: Tom Vilsack
Call It A Comeback
The guy who is winning the ArchPundit primary if that guy from Illinois doesn’t get in just announced for the 2008 nonimation: Tom Vilsack
Vilsak would be a shoo-in for the Iowa Caucus. He increased funding for education during his tenure as governor and viewed immigrants as a solution to a problem and not a problem to be solved.
How’s the guy do on the charisma front?
Cermak, not necessarily. The Des Moines Register did a poll in June, and he trailed Edwards, Clinton and Kerry, in that order.
Not an insurmountable obstacle by any stretch at this early date, but not a great harbinger either.
Actually, what happens is everyone avoids Iowa. I was in college in Iowa in 1992 when Harkin ran and no one came.
Iowa is an organization state and he’d have the organizational support behind him–especially after the showing Iowa put up Tuesday. It’s not worth it for the other candidates–Iowa becomes irrelevant and the action moves to New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.
Charisma–could use some work, but he’s also got the regular guy thing going on.
Especially with the more front loaded schedule, Iowa is going to be far less important. An dark horse candidate can’t win there and raise money for the next week heading into New Hampshire. Think 2004: Kerry wasn’t a dark horse, but he was broke and lagging behind Dean… until he won Iowa.
Candidates now need to be playing in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and SC pretty much all at the same time. More realistically, though, candidates will probably punt one or two of those states. With Vilsack in the field, punting Iowa makes a lot of sense. Winning in Iowa may provide some momentum, but it will be a small boost given that Nevada is right on its heels. It will be a particularly small boost for Vilsack, if he wins, since everyone will expect him to win. On the other hand, if he loses his home state, that would pretty much sink his candidacy so he can’t afford to ignore it.