So what conclusion should we reach from presidential approval in the months leading to a midterm election? We have a very good basis for concluding that less approval means more seats lost. But the best estimates we can manage, given that we only have 14 elections with approval data, are so imprecise that their political implications are basically worthless. I’d bet a lot (ok, I don’t bet so that’s a cheap line) that the Republican party will lose seats in the House. And that the lower the President’s approval rating, the worse they will do. But to put any meaningful confidence around a single point prediction (say, -15 seats or more) requires much more work and a good deal more calculation than just looking at the history of approval and seat change.
A number of political scientists and a few economists have developed models to forecast election results. Those use more than just approval, and achieve forecasts somewhat more precise than what is possible with approval alone. I’ll be writing about those models, and estimating some of my own in the next few weeks. But keep your eye on the confidence interval. The uncertainty is larger than Democrats would like right now, and that’s the good news for Republicans.
It still looks like the Democrats will take back both the House and the Senate. If everything stays where it is now, a big if, conservatives won’t even come out to vote and the Democrats will win seats not even thought to be competitive.
And, if the Protect Marriage advisory referendum stays on the ballot in Illinois, what does that bode in the 6th and 8th districts to PoliticalCritic?
Cal, I’m kinda embarrassed for you.
The Bush administration has self-referentially eviscerated the Fourth Amendment and you’re worried about gay marriage!?
Libertarian ideology looks to be a scam without any principles. Which means it’s a good fit for the conman-in-chief.