What’s the Strategery?

I’m pretty sure it won’t work, but I think I have some idea of what Oberweis is doing–first, for his hardcore supporters, he’s revving them up with red meat to get them to the polls. The Train Wreck piece plays into that well.

He’s going to be at the top of all news stories with the wackiness and that reinforces to them that he’s the guy who is the alternative to Topinka. He also gets the last minute name recognition for the undecideds who would have broken for Topinka well before this if they were.

Finally, if, as I guess, his base is the most angry and the most motivated, turning this into an ugly slugfest is most likely to depress Topinka’s vote.

The problem is on two sides, everyone really hates the guy now so for the general and turning this nasty depresses his own turnout some too.

My take right now, Judy is the likely winner, but I’d give Oberweis about a 35% chance of an upset.

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